Sunderland vs. AZ Alkmaar Prediction, Picks & Odds for Wednesday's Europa League Match
Three Premier League teams will get their Europa League campaigns open this week, and I'm breaking down the first in my Sunderland vs. AZ Alkmaar prediction. Cross-league handicapping can be notoriously difficult, but I've dug through the noise to come up with my best bets on how the struggling Prem side will fare against a team absolutely soaring in Eredivisie play.
Sunderland is a -163 betting favorite on the three-way moneyline ahead of kickoff from Stadium of Light in Sunderland at 3 p.m. ET (Paramount+).
⚽ Sunderland vs. AZ Alkmaar predictions & best bets
See our experts' soccer picks.
| 💰 Best bets | 📊 Best odds | ⚖️ Wager (units) |
|---|---|---|
| Match cards Over 4.5 | +100 via bet365 | 0.5 units to profit 0.5 units |
| AZ Alkmaar Over 3.5 shots on target | +110 via bet365 | 0.25 units to profit 0.28 units |
| AZ Alkmaar Over 1.5 goals | +250 via bet365 | 0.25 units to profit 0.63 units |
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💰 Sunderland vs. AZ Alkmaar best bet
Check out all of our soccer betting analysis and expert predictions this season.
Match cards Over 4.5 (+100)
There are two major factors at play here: the way the game should play out, and perhaps more importantly, the referee.
It's incredibly hard to know exactly how a cross-league game will go, particularly this early in the domestic campaigns. Sunderland haven't been firing on all cylinders to start the Premier League season, while Alkmaar has been ripping the Eredivisie apart. My projections give Alkmaar a slight edge in possession, forcing Sunderland into repeated defensive actions, which have resulted in the Black Cats receiving 9 yellows domestically.
But the biggest issue here is that Jeremie Pignard is the man holding the whistle. He's not afraid to get out the book, issuing an average of about four yellows per game across a lengthy Ligue 1 career, and he's been particularly quick this year, with 4.5 per game.
My projections have Over 4.5 cards closer to the 55% range than the 50% this price asks for, but given the uncertainty of the game it's just a half-unit play.
🆚 Who will win Sunderland vs. AZ Alkmaar?
The Stadium of Light is a notoriously difficult place to visit, even for the top Premier League sides. But it's hard to fully dismiss what AZ Alkmaar has been up to in the Netherlands, so they should make a game of it at the very least. Sunderland should squeeze out a hard-fought victory (but you'll see below a draw wouldn't shock me!)
Score prediction: Sunderland 2, AZ Alkmaar 1
🔥 More Sunderland vs. AZ Alkmaar expert picks
AZ Alkmaar Over 3.5 shots on target (+110)
Domestically Alkmaar is putting up 7.5 shots on target per game, and while I'm not going to extrapolate that into anything near that number on Wednesday, this price is solid.
The Cheese Farmers have logged an astounding 44 touches in opponents' boxes per game - this isn't a team that just fires from range and hopes for the best. Sunderland plays a high press, and that can be exposed by teams capable of exploiting space. You give a team like Alkmaar room and let them operate in your box, and they're going to get shots on target.
This price carries an implied probability of 47.6%, and my projections have it closer to 50-52%. Again, with the uncertainty, we're just staking a quarter-unit.
AZ Alkmaar Over 1.5 goals (+250)
This is a pure price point play - any lower than +250 and I'm not interested in pursuing it.
AZ are averaging 2.8 goals from 2.65 xG, and even lowering that significantly given the step up in opposition quality leaves this one open for the taking. That attack has traveled well, scoring nine in three away games, so if the visitors can sustain possession and get runners into the box - both things I'm projecting them to do - then they have a chance of making this happen.
It's not a high-probability play, it's a price-point play - I would have this closer to +175.
⚖️ Sunderland vs. AZ Alkmaar key stats
| Sunderland | AZ Alkmaar | |
|---|---|---|
| Recent form (all comps) | LWDWL | WWWWWD |
| Goals for (domestic) | 0.75 | 2.8 |
| xG (domestic) | 1.55 | 2.65 |
| Goals against (domestic) | 1.25 | 1 |
| xGA (domestic) | 1.46 | 1.08 |
| Average possession (domestic) | 49.3% | 58.6% |
📊 Sunderland vs. AZ Alkmaar odds
🆚 Sunderland vs. AZ Alkmaar projected lineups
Here are the projected lineups for Sunderland vs. AZ Alkmaar; subject to change:
| Sunderland (4-2-3-1) | Alkmaar (4-2-3-1) |
|---|---|
| Roefs (GK) | De Busser (GK) |
| Mandava (D) | Dijkstra (D) |
| Ballard (D) | Goes (D) |
| Danso (D) | Schouten (D) |
| Mukiele (D) | Chavez Garcia (D) |
| Sadiki (M) | Clasie (M) |
| Xhaka (M) | Koopmeiners (M) |
| Angulo (M) | Oufkir (M) |
| Le Fee (M) | Kwakman (M) |
| Meunier (M) | Daal (M) |
| Brobbey (F) | Meerdink (F) |
📺 How to watch Sunderland vs. AZ Alkmaar
- Date: Wednesday, Sept. 16
- Kickoff: 3 p.m. ET
- Location: Stadium of Light (Sunderland, England)
- TV/Streaming: Paramount+
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