Red Sox vs. Rangers Prediction & Picks: MLB Odds for Wednesday, Sept. 16

Tonight, the Rangers look to keep pace with the Astros in the AL West, while the Red Sox try to move closer to securing an AL Wild Card spot when Jake Bennett and MacKenzie Gore square off at Globe Life Field.

My best Red Sox vs. Rangers prediction centers on Gore and Texas’ home success this season. The Rangers enter as -118 favorites for tonight’s 8:05 p.m. ET first pitch and are one of my favorite MLB picks on the board. The game will air locally and stream on MLB.TV.

⚾ Red Sox vs. Rangers picks & odds today

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🏆 Who will win Red Sox vs. Rangers?

I'm taking the Rangers to win this game 6-4. Bennett has pitched poorly of late, and the Rangers are difficult to beat at Globe Life Field, as they're one of just five American League teams with at least 40 home wins this season.

Score prediction: Rangers 6 Red Sox 4

💰 Red Sox vs. Rangers prediction & best bet

Rangers ML (-118)

Gore has held opponents to one run or fewer in three of his last four home starts. Tonight, he faces an offense just outside the bottom 10 in scoring, in one of the 10 least hitter-friendly ballparks in the league.

Additionally, I expect the Rangers, who have scored at least five runs in five of Gore's last six home starts, to get the better of a struggling Bennett. In mid-July, he had a 2.35 ERA, but it has ballooned to 3.69 after allowing at least three earned runs in eight of his last nine starts.

🔥 Best Red Sox vs. Rangers player prop bet

Willson Contreras Over 1.5 total bases (+115)

I love Gore against most of the Red Sox lineup, but this is a dream matchup for Wilson Contreras. He's 9-for-16 in his career against Gore, with three doubles and a home run. His slash line against Gore is .563/.611/.938, and he has an OPS of 1.549.

Though Gore hasn't allowed a home run in five consecutive starts, he's given up at least five hits in five of his last six appearances. 

💣 Red Sox vs. Rangers home run prediction

Jake Burger to hit a home run (+350)

Bennett has allowed five home runs in his last two starts, which is great news for Burger. Burger enters tonight's game with 26 home runs, nine of which were hit at Globe Life Field. That's the third-most on the Rangers.

When it comes to exit velocity and opponent barrel rate, Bennett is average. He ranks 157th in exit velocity and 204th in barrel rate out of 345 qualifying pitchers. With this in mind, I'll give the advantage in this matchup to Burger, whose 12.1% barrel rate ranks in the top 50 in MLB.

📊 Live Red Sox vs. Rangers odds

Bettors are split on who they think will win this game, with the Red Sox currently seeing 51% of the action. With bettors so up in the air, I expect the moneyline and run line to stay right where they are, with the Rangers ultimately being slight favorites ahead of first pitch. The public loves the Over, with 86% of bettors backing Over 8. This should be enough support to increase this total to 8.5. Even with the number increasing, I still lean Over, as shown by my 6-4 final score projection.

📈 Red Sox vs. Rangers betting trends

🚑 Red Sox vs. Rangers injuries

📺 How to watch Red Sox vs. Rangers

• Date: Wednesday, Sept. 16
• First pitch: 8:05 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: Globe Life Field (Arlington, Texas)
• TV: Local
• Streaming: MLB.TV
• Red Sox starter: Jake Bennett (9-7, 3.69 ERA)
• Rangers starter: MacKenzie Gore (8-11, 4.62 ERA)