MLB Best Home Run Predictions Today: Best HR Props, Picks, Parlay & Odds For Wednesday, Sept. 16
We've got an early start to Wednesday's 15-game MLB slate, which is where I'll be making my home run predictions today. Yordan Alvarez cashed his +310 home run prop last night, making it back-to-back days with a winning home run wager.
For Wednesday's MLB home run picks, I'm starting with a longshot on Christian Koss. The Giants' SS has hit 3 of 7 home runs this month, and now, he draws a great matchup against Matthew Liberatore. The Cardinals' southpaw has allowed 2 home runs in 3 of his last 4 starts.
⚾ Home run predictions today: MLB HR picks & odds Sept. 16
See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| Home run pick | Units | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Christian Koss (+1040 via FanDuel) | 0.25u → 2.60u | Koss has hit 3 of 7 home runs in September, while hitting 4 home runs against left-handed pitching. |
| Ben Rice (+375 via DraftKings) | 0.27u → 1.01u | Rice has 28 of 38 home runs against right-handed pitching in 2026, including 14 of 18 home runs against righties on the road. |
| Riley Greene (+390 via bet365) | 0.26u → 1.01u | Greene has 9 of 13 home runs against right-handed pitchers on the road, while mashing 4 home runs in September. |
Total wagered: 0.78 units | Max profit: 4.62 units
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💣 Best home run predictions & odds today
Home run pick: Christian Koss (+1040)
Christian Koss is a determined hitter for the Giants. The second-year SS hit 1 of his 3 home runs in September against the Cardinals in their last series.
Koss has recorded 4 of 7 home runs against left-handed pitchers in 2026. Now, he has a great matchup against Liberatore.
Liberatore ranks in just the 3rd percentile for pitching run value (-19) in 2026. He's also sitting in the bottom 20 percent in hard-hit rate (42.4) and barrel rate (9.4) allowed.
Bet on Koss' home run prop at +1040 odds on FanDuel.
- Time: 1:15 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
📡 SBR Edge: Wind boost at Busch
Busch Stadium, notoriously a pitcher's park, is forecast to have a 5.7 mph wind blowing out during today's game.
🔥 More home run predictions today
Home run pick: Ben Rice (+375)
Ben Rice is swinging a hot bat right now. The Yankees' slugger has 2 home runs in his last 4 appearances. Today, he'll face Zebby Matthews, an ideal matchup against a struggling right-handed pitcher.
28 of Rice's 38 home runs have been against right-handed pitchers this season. He's also hit 14 of his 18 homers on the road against righties.
Rice's metrics jump off the page. He's in the 96th percentile for xSLG (.508) and in the 93rd percentile for barrel percentage (14.1).
Matthews is giving up an 11.1 barrel percentage, putting him in a low fourth percentile amongst MLB pitchers in 2026.
Go to DraftKings to bet on Rice to hit a home run at +375 odds.
- Time: 1:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
Home run pick: Riley Greene (+390)
Detroit's lineup has been led by Riley Greene, as the left-handed hitter enters today's road contest in Toronto with 4 home runs logged this month. Greene has hit 9 of 13 home runs against right-handed pitchers in away ballparks, compared to just 7 homers at Comerica Park.
Max Scherzer takes the mound for the Blue Jays this afternoon. The veteran right-handed starter has surrendered a home run in 3 of his last 5 starts. Scherzer is in the 19th percentile for barrel percentage allowed (9.3) this season.
Greene enters today's matchup with a 95th-percentile barrel percentage (15.3) and 96th in xSLG (.508) in 2026.
Go to bet365 to bet on Greene's home run prop at +390 odds.
- Time: 3:07 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
🚀 Best home run parlay picks today
💵 Best MLB home run parlay today
- Christian Koss (+950)
- Ben Rice (+375)
- Riley Greene (+390)
Best odds: +24339 via bet365 (0.10u -> 24.33u)
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