NFL Upset Picks, Predictions Week 9: Jets are Dangerous 'Dogs On MNF
Moving our focus to one of the key NFL upset picks for Week 9, featuring the best NFL odds, we direct our attention to Monday Night Football, when the New York Jets will play host to the Los Angeles Chargers.
Out of the 14 games on the NFL Week 9 betting board, only two feature point spreads higher than a touchdown, and eight games at our best sports betting apps have spreads set at three points or fewer. Nevertheless, we have identified three underdogs that are worth considering for potential plus-money returns on this week’s slate.
Check out our NFL Week 9 predictions and NFL best bets, along with our Week 9 NFL props to accompany our best NFL upset picks for Week 9 (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
NFL upset picks: Week 9
- Washington Commanders (+160 via bet365) vs. New England Patriots ⭐⭐⭐
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+126 via FanDuel) vs. Houston Texans ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- New York Jets (+150 via Caesars) vs. Los Angeles Chargers ⭐⭐⭐
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NFL upset predictions
Commanders ML vs. Patriots (+160 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
A week after shocking the Buffalo Bills by a score of 29-25 as 8.5-point underdogs, the New England Patriots reverted to their losing ways with a lopsided 31-17 defeat Sunday at the Miami Dolphins. Mac Jones threw his eighth interception of the season and failed to crack the 200-yard plateau through the air for the fourth time in his last five outings as the Pats dropped to 2-10 ATS in their last dozen games.
Backing the Washington Commanders has become increasingly difficult due to the recent trades of pivotal pass-rushers Montez Sweat and Chase Young. Despite a series of losses, including four in their last five games, the Commanders have shown competitiveness in most of their contests, even coming close to victories against the Philadelphia Eagles. This resilience in the face of setbacks is a notable aspect of their performance.
Home field isn’t much of an advantage these days for the Patriots, who have covered just one of their last seven at Gillette Stadium. In a battle of two teams that are headed nowhere, taking a shot at this fat moneyline price with the visiting Commanders is the only way I can look.
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Buccaneers ML vs. Texans (+126 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Even after losing three straight games, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers enter Week 9 just half a game behind the Atlanta Falcons and New Orleans Saints for first place in the mediocre NFC South. That gives the Bucs plenty of motivation to turn things around, and they’ve had a few extra days to work on things after dropping a tight 24-18 decision last week against the Buffalo Bills - an effort that improved Tampa Bay to 3-0 ATS on the road this season.
The Houston Texans came crashing back down to earth last week after covering their prior four games, losing 15-13 to the previously winless Carolina Panthers. Rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud posted a season-low 140 passing yards - his second straight outing with less than 200 - and the Texans’ offense has managed just 52 points in its last three games. It should continue to struggle against a Tampa defense that has held five of seven opponents this year to 20 points or less.
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Jets ML vs. Chargers (+150 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
It hasn’t always been pretty, but the New York Jets deserve a ton of credit for hanging in the AFC playoff hunt after losing Aaron Rodgers on their opening drive of the season. Week 8's 13-10 overtime win over the New York Giants was the Jets’ third victory in a row, anchored by a defense that ranks second in the NFL in yards per play allowed and fifth vs. the pass.
That ability to stop the pass bodes well against Justin Herbert and the Los Angeles Chargers, who have gained nearly three-quarters of their yards this season through the air. L.A.’s passing game could also be hurt by the potential inclement and cold weather of a November game in the northeast, not exactly a climate that the Californian visitors are used to playing in.
Whether the Jets put up enough points to pull off the outright upset is a legitimate concern after Zach Wilson completed less than half of his passes in last week’s ugly win over the Giants. However, Wilson could draw some confidence from driving the Jets down the field for the tying and winning field goals in that game, and he’s thrown only one interception in his last five outings. I’m willing to bet that he makes just enough plays to beat a Chargers defense that has given up 31, 24, and 27 points in its three road games this season.
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NFL upset picks made 11/01/2023 at 7:23 p.m. ET.
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