NFL Upset Picks, Predictions Week 11: Cardinals Could Play Spoiler Again
We're targeting the Arizona Cardinals and fading the Buffalo Bills for two of our three NFL upset picks for Week 11, based on the best NFL odds.
Though any playoff hopes are long gone, the 2-8 Arizona Cardinals have Kyler Murray back under center and can play spoiler to close out the season.
The Cardinals beat the Atlanta Falcons in Murray's return last week, and Arizona will look to replicate that success in a road tilt against the Houston Texans and Offensive Rookie of the Year favorite C.J. Stroud.
Meanwhile, the 5-5 Buffalo Bills try to end a two-game losing skid to stay competitive in the AFC playoff race. However, the New York Jets own a strong defense, so it won’t be easy for the Bills on Sunday.
Check out our NFL Week 11 predictions and Week 11 best bets, along with our Week 11 NFL props to accompany our best NFL upset picks for Week 11 (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
NFL upset picks: Week 11
- Arizona Cardinals (+198 via FanDuel) vs. Houston Texans ⭐⭐⭐
- New York Jets (+265 via FanDuel) vs. Buffalo Bills ⭐⭐
- Minnesota Vikings (+115 via BetMGM) vs. Denver Broncos ⭐⭐⭐⭐
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NFL upset predictions
Arizona Cardinals (+198 via FanDuel) vs. Houston Texans ⭐⭐⭐
Despite winning just one of their first nine games, the Arizona Cardinals continued to fight for first-year coach Jonathan Gannon, going 4-4-1 ATS in that span. Now that QB Kyler Murray is finally back from an ACL injury, those efforts could start to pay off like they did in last week’s 25-23 win over the Atlanta Falcons. Murray looked solid in his first game in nearly a year, completing 59% of his passes for 249 yards and engineering a game-winning drive in the dying seconds.
C.J. Stroud and the Houston Texans are the talk of the league right now after last week’s 30-27 win over the Cincinnati Bengals, the second straight game in which Stroud threw for more than 350 yards. All that excitement prompted oddsmakers to open Houston as nearly a touchdown favorite, an overreaction considering the Texans were underdogs to the New Orleans Saints and Pittsburgh Steelers in their previous two home games.
Stroud is putting up those lofty numbers because of Houston’s lack of a running game, which could cost the Texans against Arizona’s improving defense. The Cardinals gave up just 254 net yards to the Falcons last week, are 10th in the NFL in sacks, and rank third in tackles for loss, while their secondary is 11th versus the pass on the season. Line movement throughout the week has taken some of the value out of this price, but FanDuel’s +198 offering still looks more than generous on an Arizona moneyline I’d play at +180 or better.
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New York Jets (+265 via FanDuel) vs. Buffalo Bills ⭐⭐
We faded the Buffalo Bills in our NFL upset picks last week and were rewarded with a fat +320 return with the Denver Broncos on Monday night. Why stop now? Many issues that plagued Buffalo during an 0-6 ATS skid haven’t gone away, especially the Bills’ propensity to turn over the ball. Josh Allen leads the NFL in interceptions after throwing another two against Denver and committed one of two lost fumbles in the game.
Now we’re seeing signs of panic out of Buffalo with the firing of offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, who wasn’t to blame for a too-many-men penalty that allowed Denver to get a second crack at a game-winning field goal. Fans are frustrated as well, with a few boos being heard throughout Monday’s loss to the Broncos, so home field might not be as much of an advantage as it usually is for the Bills — especially if this game is tight late.
We all know how awful Zach Wilson and the New York Jets offense is, but they still manage to hang in almost every game. Last week’s 16-12 loss to the Las Vegas Raiders was the 4-5 Jets’ third defeat by four points or fewer. In recent meetings, the Jets’ tough defense has also been a thorn in the side of Allen and the Bills, winning this year’s season opener and covering five of the last eight between the division rivals. As hard as it might be to hit submit on a Jets moneyline ticket right now, it’s the only way I can look, so get the best value on this play by using our FanDuel promo code.
Minnesota Vikings (+115 via BetMGM) vs. Denver Broncos ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Yes, the Denver Broncos delivered us a +320 winner in last week's NFL upset picks column, but much of that was due to Buffalo's mistakes. Despite winning the turnover battle 4-1, the Broncos still needed a mulligan on a last-second field goal attempt to pull out the 24-22 victory. Denver's defense turned things around after an awful start to the season, but the offense is now a cause for concern, gaining just 300 total yards Monday against a banged-up Buffalo defense.
The Minnesota Vikings’ recent success seems a lot more sustainable. Despite being without star receiver Justin Jefferson for the past month and veteran quarterback Kirk Cousins for the last two games, Minny has won five straight and six of seven to climb into the NFC Wild Card conversation. The Vikings’ defense has allowed fewer than 20 points in five of those seven games, while replacement QB Joshua Dobbs has led their attack to 58 points over the past two weeks, and there’s an outside possibility that star wideout Justin Jefferson could return for Sunday’s showdown at Mile High.
Denver has covered just two of its last 10 games as a home favorite, although I’m not sure the Broncos should be chalk here. Give me the Vikings for the mild upset at even money or better.
NFL upset picks made 11/15/2023 at 9:30 p.m. ET.
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