Our Tua Tagovailoa NFL player prop predictions are based on the best NFL odds from our top NFL prop betting sites, and we’re expecting the Miami Dolphins quarterback to throw all over the field against the Denver Broncos' vulnerable pass defense.
Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa’s connection with wide receiver Tyreek Hill was the talk of Week 1. But last week the New England Patriots forced the Dolphins QB into more of a game-manager role with their defensive gameplan.
How will Tagovailoa attack the Denver Broncos in Week 3?
Here are our best Tua Tagovailoa NFL player prop predictions to accompany our Broncos vs. Dolphins predictions for their Week 3 matchup. For more, check out all of our NFL Week 3 predictions (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Tua Tagovailoa NFL player prop predictions for Week 3
- Tua Tagovailoa Over 265.5 passing yards (-115 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Tua Tagovailoa Under 1.5 passing touchdowns (+115 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
- Tua Tagovailoa Over 2.5 rushing attempts (+110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
Tua Tagovailoa player props
Tua Tagovailoa Over 265.5 passing yards (-115 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
The Broncos rank near the NFL’s top 10 in run defense through two weeks, giving up just 91.5 rushing yards per game, as they seem to be forcing opponents to beat them through the air.
Miami has dealt with backfield injuries, largely leaning on Tua’s arm to move the ball and that should be the plan again Sunday, as Denver funnels opponents toward the pass. The Broncos rank 22nd in passing yards allowed so far this season.
Both DraftKings and BetMGM offer Tua’s passing yardage prop at 265.5 yards with -115 odds on the Over. Those are the best betting options, as other spots either list a higher total (268.5 at FanDuel) or a brutal odds value (-145 and -131 at bet365 and Caesars, respectively).
Tua Tagovailoa Under 1.5 passing touchdowns (+115 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
With a team total of 27.5 points, that implies something in the three-touchdown range for the Dolphins in this matchup. Though Tagovailoa has four passing TDs in 2023, he cleared this line in only one of two games.
Despite being strong against the run, Denver gave up two rushing TDs in two matchups. Miami running back Raheem Mostert is efficient in the red zone, owning three rushing scores through two contests. When the Dolphins get in close, they could turn to the run to keep Tagovailoa below this threshold.
With major juice on the Over, fade Tua on this specific prop due to the quality of odds you get on the Under. At +115, bet365 is the best shop for betting Under on this prop, although all of our best sports betting apps offer solid odds between +110 and +115.
Tua Tagovailoa Over 2.5 rushing attempts (+110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
Tagovailoa doesn’t like to run, nor is he particularly effective at it. But through four quarters of an NFL game, with the defense pressuring you into quick decisions, sometimes you gotta do what you gotta do. Against his better judgment, Tua had to take off and stumble forward several times each game this year.
Tagovailoa has more rushing attempts (nine) this season than rushing yards (eight), but he logged at least four carries in both games in 2023. For this prop, he needs only three rushing attempts to clear the bar. It’s a niche wager, but one that has some value based on where the books have the odds.
Tua Tagovailoa player prop picks made 9/23/23 at 2:04 p.m. ET.
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