Broncos vs. Dolphins Predictions, Picks & Odds Week 3: Broncos Could Surprise the Injury-Riddled Dolphins
The Miami Dolphins host the Denver Broncos in their home opener at Hard Rock Stadium, as we share our best Broncos-Dolphins predictions based on the top NFL odds from our best sports betting apps.
The Miami Dolphins picked up two huge AFC road victories to start the season, and they'll now attempt to move to 3-0 with a win over the visiting Denver Broncos. Miami is averaging 465 yards and 30 points per game on offense, and quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is trading as the consensus favorite in the NFL MVP odds.
Meanwhile, Year 2 of the Russell Wilson experiment in Denver looks a lot like the first. But at least the Broncos 33 points in Week 2 were the most they’ve scored since Wilson joined the team.
Here is our best Broncos-Dolphins prediction and our NFL picks (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Broncos vs. Dolphins prediction
Broncos +6.5 (-108 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
This is one of the fishiest lines of the week among our NFL predictions for Week 3.
The Dolphins’ offense has been incredible through two weeks. The team has won two tough road games, and the defense has made the necessary stops to put Miami in a position to win late. However, the Dolphins are only 6.5-point favorites at home over the 0-2 Broncos.
When you dive deeper, it becomes clearer why the Broncos are the right play. The Dolphins are beat up. Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are both questionable, and while we expect Hill to play, Waddle’s status is unclear. The two have combined for 419 of Tua Tagovailoa’s 715 yards this season. So if one is out, that’s a huge blow to this offense. If both are out, the Dolphins are in trouble.
The weather is also expected to be a factor on Sunday, with an 80% chance of rain and thunderstorms likely during the game. The Dolphins will likely lose some of the quickness that makes them so dangerous on a sloppy field.
The Broncos have suffered a loss of seven points or fewer in 11 of their 14 defeats since Wilson joined the team. The Broncos are going to stay in this game until the end because of the Dolphins' injuries and weak defense. Plus, for as good as the Dolphins have been, both of their games have been one-score contests.
Our own Connor Cooper is also backing the Broncos in his NFL upset picks for Week 3.
Editor’s note: Miami wide receiver Jaylen Waddle has been ruled out of Sunday’s game against Denver with a concussion, per NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport.
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Broncos vs. Dolphins best odds
DraftKings (-108)
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
| +6.5 | +6.5 | +6.5 | +6.5 | +6.5 |
| -108 | -110 | -110 | -110 | -110 |
Four of our five best sportsbooks are offering the exact same spread for the same price. Though the difference isn’t significant, DraftKings is featuring a slightly better price than any of our other best sports betting sites.
We don’t think this line will move any further in favor of the Broncos. So if you want to wait a bit and try to get a better price, go ahead.
Broncos vs. Dolphins odds
Broncos vs. Dolphins odds analysis
The Dolphins opened as 7-point favorites, but the line has dropped to 6.5 at all of our best live betting sites. Currently, 58% of wagers are backing the Dolphins to cover, yet oddsmakers have confidently moved the spread in favor of the Broncos. Perhaps the line will move back to the key number before kickoff, but right now it seems oddsmakers are happy to let bettors take the bait.
As for the total, the number opened at 48, and it's stayed there or dropped to 47.5 at each of the five major sportsbooks. With the Dolphins' offense so battered, this number could continue to drop despite 53% of the wagers backing the Over.
Broncos vs. Dolphins game info
- When: Sunday, Sept. 24 at 1 p.m. ET
- Where: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL
- How to watch: CBS
- Weather: 85 degrees, 7-mph winds, 80% chance of precipitation
Broncos vs. Dolphins prediction made 9/21/2023 at 3:54 p.m. ET
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