Texans vs. 49ers Week 17 Picks: San Francisco Giving Too Many Points

The San Francisco 49ers need a win on Sunday for their playoff hopes, but they are likely to be without their starting quarterback against the visiting Houston Texans. We break down their chances with our Texans-49ers NFL picks.

Week 17 of this NFL season doesn’t seem to offer a lot of great matchups. Four games feature teams favored by at least 12.5 points, and that includes the playoff-hopeful San Francisco 49ers (8-7) hosting a Houston Texans (4-11) team that's eliminated from playoff contention. There's little question who wins this matchup, but can the Niners cover the big number?

Here are my picks and predictions for the NFL's Week 17 matchup between the Texans and 49ers (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Texans vs. 49ers Game Info

Date/Time: Sunday, Jan. 2, 4:05 p.m. ETTV: CBSLocation: Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, CAWeather: 58 degrees, 10% chance of precipitation, 5 mph winds

Texans vs. 49ers Odds Analysis

If you are planning to back Houston, you already waited too long as this spread opened as high as San Francisco -15.5 but has dropped to 13 at most sportsbooks; however, DraftKings still has it 13.5. Sixty-one percent of the handle and 57% of the bets are on the 49ers to cover. It’s doubtful that the number gets back over 14.

The total has dropped from as high as 45.5 to 44 at some books.

Texans vs. 49ers Picks

Texans +13 (-110) ??Under 44.5 (-110) ???

SEE ALSO: NFL Week 16 Betting Odds, Early Lines, and Picks

Texans vs. 49ers Predictions

Texans +13 (-110)

A couple of weeks ago, it looked as if Texans head coach David Culley might be one-and-done, but Houston has won back-to-back games, and perhaps more importantly, rookie quarterback Davis Mills has looked … like a potential full-time NFL starter. Mills has completed 68.87% of his passes for 794 yards, with five TDs and just one interception over his last three outings. 

In Sunday’s shocking 41-29 upset of the Los Angeles Chargers, the Texans were 13.5-point underdogs and missing 20 players due to COVID-19-related testing yet dominated. Mills had a season-high quarterback rating of 130.6.

San Francisco sits sixth in the NFC standings and appears to be in great shape for a wild-card berth. If the Niners win out, they are in.

However, whether the team will have starting QB Jimmy Garoppolo the rest of the way is in question. That Jimmy G is likely out this week due to a thumb injury is a big reason I’m on Houston. In their seven defeats, the Niners are minus-11 in turnover differential and were minus-2 or worse in five of them. San Francisco is also likely to be without starting linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair.

The Niners covered the spread in just seven of their last 26 home games vs. teams with a losing road record. Houston is 3-2 ATS this year as at least a 13-point dog.

Under 44.5 (-110)

While Mills has looked good in Houston’s two-game win streak, his success – and that the team totaled 71 points in those victories after just 27 during a three-game losing skid prior – was definitely in large part to facing the weak defenses of the Jacksonville Jaguars and Chargers. Also, Mills has a 106.2 rating at home with nine TD passes and one pick compared to a 60.4 rating with three TDs and eight picks on the road.

While Houston rushed for a season-high 189 yards as a team last Sunday against the porous Chargers run defense and despite being down three starters on the offensive line because of COVID-19 protocols, the Niners are good against the run in allowing just 107.3 rushing yards per game. 

We know even less about likely Niners rookie QB Trey Lance. I’m presuming the No. 3 overall pick starts because Garoppolo reportedly has a torn ulnar collateral ligament and fracture in his right (throwing) thumb. However, he hasn't seen the field since Week 11 and hasn't started since Week 5, his only start of the season.

Lance hasn’t attempted a pass in a game – he has been running the scout team in practice – since starting for an injured Garoppolo in Week 5 against the Arizona Cardinals. He was 15-for-29 for 192 yards and an interception.

The former North Dakota State star can run, but he was considered the rawest passer of any rookie first-round QB this year. Expect head coach Kyle Shanahan to vastly simplify the game plan. Though, it’s not clear if No. 1 running back and fellow rookie Elijah Mitchell (knee) will play after missing the last three games. 

I like San Francisco to win something like 24-13. Back the Under 44.5 with our Texans-49ers picks.

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Texans-49ers picks made on 12/28/2021 at 10:35 a.m. ET.