NFL Best Bets for Week 7: ATS Picks & Player Props This Week

My NFL best bets for Week 7 look to build off last week’s 2-2 record where I correctly identified the Bears to cover as small favorites and cashed Kirk Cousins’ big passing day against the Bills.

This week’s NFL picks follow a similar model where I analyze a game with a small point spread (though this time I back the underdog), make my top O/U wager, and include three more player props. My three player props call for a slow day from a hot wide receiver as he gets shadow treatment from a top cornerback, while I get creative with a play on C.J. Stroud amid one of the best stretches of his career.

NFL best bets for Week 7

See the latest NFL odds and our experts' NFL picks for every game this season.

Picks submitted: Oct. 23 at 1:15 p.m. ET. Odds subject to change. 

Total wagered: 5 units | Profit if all picks win: 5.72 units

Best NFL predictions: ATS, ML, O/U

Want more NFL betting advice? Check out all of our NFL analysis and expert predictions for every game in Week 7.

Colts-Vikings Under 41.5 (-110 via DraftKings)

The Colts have been one of the NFL’s worst teams since Week 12 of 2025. They have lost 11 of 13 games in that span (tied for the league’s worst record), while averaging 290.7 yards per game (27th) and owning the league’s worst turnover differential (minus-12). 

While the Indianapolis defense ranks 25th or worse in opponents’ yards and points per game, I don’t expect Minnesota’s offense to take advantage. The Vikings rank 29th in Offensive EPA and face third downs on a league-high 65% of their sets of downs.

Play to: 41

Raiders +3.5 (-106 via FanDuel)

The Raiders have lost three straight following a 3-0 start. But compared with preseason expectations, it’s not nearly as concerning as the Rams’ 2-4 record, which ties their worst six-game start under head coach Sean McVay.

Los Angeles’ offense has struggled to find a rhythm, largely because of poor field position and turnovers. In terms of drive rates. Los Angeles ranks 29th in average drive starting position (28-yard line), 25th in score percentage (35%), and 21st in turnover rate (14%). The Rams defense and special teams also ranks 15th and last, respectively, in estimated points added.

Play to: +3.5 (pass at +3 or lower)

Best NFL player props for Week 7

Zay Flowers Under 5.5 receptions (+100 via bet365)

Zay Flowers ranks in the top 12 in receptions and is tied for ninth in receiving yards despite missing one of the team’s six games. But I’m tempering expectations for him in a matchup with Bengals cornerback DJ Turner.

Turner shadowed the other team’s top receiver in all five games so far, and limited No. 1 receivers like Emeka Egbuka (5/63/0), DK Metcalf (3/31/1), and Parker Washington (1/7/0).

Flowers had three or fewer receptions in both games against the Bengals last season, including a 2/6/0 dud in the home matchup.

Cincinnati ranks 30th with 5.0 yards per carry allowed, so this should be a big Derrick Henry game with less passing volume.

Play to: Under 5.5 (-120)

C.J. Stroud Under 0.5 interceptions (-115 via bet365)

C.J. Stroud is one of five quarterbacks with at least 1,700 pass yards and 9.0 touchdown-to-interception ratio in the first six games of a season in the last 10 years. 

The Texans have been wise to lean on Stroud amid this stretch of stellar play. So far, his 65% completion percentage is a career best, as are his 16% off-target rate and 0.5% interception rate. And while the Texans rank fourth with 76% of their total yards coming via the pass this season, this sets up to be Stroud’s lowest passing-volume game as the biggest favorites on the Week 7 slate over the Giants (-10.5)

Play to: -130

Jaylen Waddle anytime touchdown scorer (+200 via BetMGM)

Much has been made of Bo Nix’s unwillingness to take shots downfield, as his 5.6 yards per attempt ranks 32nd among all quarterbacks. And while Denver’s 168 yards last week were its fewest in a team win in the last 45 seasons, this matchup is against a Cardinals defense tied for the worst points per game allowed, so the passing game should get going.

Jaylen Waddle has seen at least seven targets in three of the last five games. He has a team-high 22% target share against zone coverage, which the Cardinals deploy at the league’s fourth-highest rate (87%). Arizona has also allowed the second-most touchdowns to wide receivers and struggles against deep throws (Waddle leads Denver in deep targets).

Play to: +175