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Desmond Ridder of the Atlanta Falcons runs with the ball as part of our Week 12 NFL predictions for Saints vs. Falcons
Desmond Ridder #9 of the Atlanta Falcons runs with the ball during the first quarter of the game against the Tennessee Titans at Nissan Stadium on October 29, 2023 in Nashville, Tennessee. Photo by Wesley Hitt/Getty Images/AFP

Our predictions for the New Orleans Saints vs. Atlanta Falcons game are based on the best NFL odds, with our best sports betting apps anticipating enough offensive sparks to propel this game beyond the modest total.

A NFC South divisional matchup between the New Orleans Saints (5-5) and Atlanta Falcons (4-6) is expected to be tight, with the line at our best sportsbooks in pick’em territory and the total only squeaking into the 40s. 

With a change in quarterback and recent trends for both teams, is there enough offensive firepower in this matchup for Sunday's NFC South divisional game to go Over the total?

Head over to our NFL Week 12 predictions and NFL Week 12 player props to accompany our best Saints vs. Falcons prediction and our NFL picks (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Saints vs. Falcons prediction

Over 41.5 (-108 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

Last season's matchups between the Saints and Falcons resulted in a balanced outcome regarding clearing the game total. As both teams head into Week 12, their NFC South aspirations remain alive. Offensively, Atlanta maintains an average of 18.9 points per game, while New Orleans boasts a slightly higher scoring average of 21.4 points. When considering the defensive sides, the combined average points allowed by both teams totals around 41.5 points per game, indicating a potential range for the total points scored in this upcoming game.

Atlanta games are 4-6 on Overs, while games involving the Saints are just 3-7 on Overs this season. The typically tight nature of divisional matchups combined with the underwhelming efforts of both offenses this season makes this total tough to attack.

But recent trends for both the Saints and Falcons suggest the ability for both teams to score into the 20s. Four consecutive games involving New Orleans have hit 41 or more total points, while the Falcons have seen three straight games hit 48+ points. The uptick in scoring has come as the Atlanta offense has leaned heavily into the run game, which could provide an advantage against a Saints defense, allowing 113.6 rushing yards per game (20th in the NFL).

Desmond Ridder is expected to return as the Falcons’ starting quarterback and will hopefully be reinvigorated after spending some time on the bench behind backup Taylor Heinicke. The Saints, meanwhile, have averaged 26.6 PPG over the past five weeks and should score enough to help this game into the mid-40s.

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Saints vs. Falcons best odds

DraftKings Over 41.5 (-108) 

DraftKingsFanDuelBetMGMCaesarsbet365
Over 41.5Over 41.5Over 41.5Over 41.5Over 41.5
-108-110-110-110-110

The total across our best sports betting apps sits at 41.5. Most of our best sportsbooks list the odds at -110 on both sides, but you can gain a slight edge at DraftKings with -108 odds on Over.

If the total returns to the 40.5 number we saw earlier Friday, we would boost this recommendation to four stars. We like the Over as a three-star recommendation up to 42.5.

Saints vs. Falcons odds

Saints vs. Falcons odds analysis

The Falcons were 1.5-point favorites before the line switched to Saints -1.5 across our best sportsbooks. 52% of wagers have come in on the Saints. 

The total opened at 41.5 and spent some time sitting even lower down to 40.5 before rebounding back to 41.5 across our best sports betting apps. 47% of wagers have come in on Over.

Saints vs. Falcons game info

  • When: Sunday, Nov. 26, at 1:00 p.m. ET
  • Where:  Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA
  • How to watch: FOX
  • Weather: Indoors

Saints-Falcons prediction made Friday at 12:45 p.m. ET

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