Saints vs. Chiefs Early Picks, Predictions & Odds for MNF Week 5
The Super Bowl odds favorite Kansas City Chiefs host the New Orleans Saints on Monday Night Football.
Rashee Rice is likely out for the season, joining a long list of key Chiefs’ offensive weapons who will miss some time. How will his absence affect our Saints vs. Chiefs early picks and odds ahead of their Week 5 Monday Night Football matchup?
Meanwhile, the Saints have dropped back-to-back games after starting the season 2-0. They enter the MNF clash as the underdogs at our best NFL betting sites.
The Saints scored 40 points in their first two games, but they’ve combined for just 36 in the last two. Can they cover as 5.5-point underdogs on Monday?
My early Saints vs. Chiefs prediction: Chiefs -5
NFL picks made Tuesday; odds subject to change. Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!
Prediction: Chiefs -5
Best odds: -105 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 51.22%
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This has less to do with the Chiefs' talent and more to do with the fact that the Saints just aren’t the team they looked like in weeks 1 and 2.
Their offense has been figured out, and they turned the ball over three times in their two losses.
They only put up 219 yards of total offense against the Philadelphia Eagles. Considering how the Eagles have looked in every other game, that’s worrying.
Despite their record, the Chiefs have been far from perfect, and they took another hit on offense with the loss of Rice. But Patrick Mahomes is still Patrick Mahomes, and we finally saw Travis Kelce come to life because of Rice’s absence for most of last Sunday’s game.
The Saints allow 233.8 passing yards per game, the 25th-most in the league. The Chiefs will move the ball in this game, and the defense will make the stops they need to just like they’ve done in every game this season. While the Chiefs likely won’t win by more than a touchdown, they’ll cover the spread.
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Saints vs. Chiefs live odds
See the NFL odds from our best NFL betting sites for every Week 5 game.
Moneyline
- Chiefs best odds: -215 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 68.25%
- Saints best odds: +200 via bet365 | Implied probability: 33.33%
The Chiefs will eventually lose a game, but will their first loss come at home in prime time against Derek Carr and the Saints? The Chiefs should probably be favored even more, so this is actually a good price for them.
That being said, because bettors are initially backing the Saints, the number may drop below -200. If that happens, the Chiefs are worth a play. If you want to pick the upset, get in sooner than later.
Spread
- Chiefs best odds: -5 (-105) via FanDuel
- Saints best odds: +5.5 (-108) via DraftKings
The Saints are taking most of the bets at the moment, but it’s not enough to move the line. The Chiefs have barely found ways to win their four games this season, so bettors will likely fade them throughout the year. However, three of the Chiefs’ four wins are by at least five points.
At home, in prime time, against a team clinging to two great performances that may be outliers, we should see the Chiefs pick up their most straightforward win of the season.
The spread will likely move toward New Orleans, which would be great for all Chiefs’ backers.
Over/Under
- Over best odds: 42.5 (-108) via FanDuel
- Under best odds: 42.5 (-108) via DraftKings
While over 68% of bettors are backing the over, I just don’t see it happening. Both teams rank in the top seven in scoring defense, and the Chiefs are allowing 18.0 per game while the Saints are giving up 17.5.
The Chiefs have held back-to-back opponents to 17 or fewer points, and though the Saints lead the league in points per game, they’ve crashed back down to earth over the last two weeks.
The under is the right play, but since this number will rise, I'll wait until closer to kickoff.
How to watch Saints vs. Chiefs
- When: Monday, Oct. 7
- Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET
- Where: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium (Kansas City, Mo.)
- How to watch: ESPN
- Weather: 50 degrees, 0% chance of precipitation, 7-mph wind
- Favorite: Chiefs (-215 via FanDuel)
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