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Patrick Mahomes NFL Player Props, Predictions for the AFC Championship: Will Ankle Be an Issue?

Mike Spector

Last Updated: January 29, 2023 4:12 PM EST • 3 min 10 sec read.

Patrick Mahomes suffered a high ankle sprain during the divisional round of the NFL playoffs. Can he win the AFC Championship Game despite this injury? Here are our top Patrick Mahomes NFL player props for the AFC Championship Game based on the best NFL odds.

Mahomes beat the Jacksonville Jaguars for his ninth playoff win last week, the second-most for a quarterback over his first six seasons. He's now 5-0 in the divisional playoffs, with an 11-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

The passer and Andy Reid are tied for the second-most consecutive championship game appearances (five) from a quarterback-head coach duo, but they're the first to play five straight at home. Mahomes is one of seven quarterbacks responsible for at least 50% of a team's all-time playoff wins.

Here are our best Patrick Mahomes NFL player props for the AFC Championship Game (odds via BetMGM and DraftKings; pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Check out our AFC and NFC Championship Predictions Roundup, Bengals-Chiefs picks, and 49ers-Eagles picks.

Patrick Mahomes NFL player props for the AFC Championship

  • Mahomes Under 284.5 passing yards vs. Bengals (-115 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • Mahomes Under 2.5 passing touchdowns vs. Bengals (-175 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
  • Mahomes Over 0.5 interceptions vs. Bengals (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Looking to get an early start on The Big Game? Check out our breakdown of the hypothetical Super Bowl odds and lines ahead of Championship Weekend, as well as our 2023 Super Bowl odds.

Bengals vs. Chiefs Odds

Check out our Super Bowl MVP odds.

Patrick Mahomes player prop bets

Mahomes Under 284.5 passing yards vs. Bengals (-115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Mahomes's high ankle sprain is the most talked about aspect of the AFC Championship Game rematch. And rightly so, as it's an injury that usually keeps players out for multiple weeks. He's one of the most crafty quarterbacks at eluding pressure in the pocket and extending plays with his legs. But his potential inability to do so as effectively this week could limit Mahomes' ceiling.

New users can bet $5 to get $150 back in bonus bets when signing up via FanDuel's promo code and betting on Bengals vs. Chiefs picks.

There's a precedent set for Mahomes playing after an ankle sprain, as he did so in Week 2 in 2019 against the Las Vegas Raiders. Mahomes registered a Total QBR of 95 during that game with 443 passing yards, a 4-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio, and he averaged 2.59 seconds to throw.

However, the Bengals' defense has allowed just 18.2 points per game in the playoffs since 2021 while holding opposing passers to a 77.4 passer rating. Both are better marks than the team averaged during the season. 

The Over has hit on Mahomes' passing yards prop in 11 of 18 games. But that will end against a Cincinnati defense that allowed the lowest completion rate and passer rating during the regular season. Mahomes’ passing yards prop is as low as 280.5 at PointsBet, so DraftKings offers the best number for Under backers.

Check out our Bengals-Chiefs odds analysis and NFL best bets.

Mahomes Under 2.5 passing touchdowns (-175) ⭐⭐⭐

Mahomes' favorite red-zone target is tight end Travis Kelce, the only Chiefs player with double-digit touchdowns (12) during the regular season. However, Cincinnati held him without a catch during the first half of the regular-season matchup, and the Bengals' success against the eight-time Pro Bowler will limit Mahomes ceiling.

Bengals defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo is a master at making second-half adjustments. The Bengals held Mahomes to a 56.8 completion percentage, 254 passing yards, 5.8 passing yards per attempt, a 0:2 touchdown-to-interception ratio, and a 54.5 passer rating during the second half over three meetings. If the Over on this prop doesn't hit during the first half, the chances aren't good over the final 30 minutes.

Bettors can find plus-money odds at all sportsbooks to back the Under on 1.5 touchdowns. But we'll pay the steeper price to give us one extra touchdown worth of cushion.

Mahomes Over 0.5 interceptions (-110) ⭐⭐⭐

Cincinnati leads the NFL with the most playoff takeaways (12) since 2021, and the team has recorded 10 interceptions during that span. The Bengals forced Josh Allen into his lowest career passer rating (68.1) in a playoff game and pressured him on 34% of dropbacks.

Surprisingly, the Jaguars pressured Mahomes on just 16% of his dropbacks after his ankle injury last week as opposed to 54% before the injury. Expect Anarumo to dial up a different game plan and force Mahomes into at least one mistake.

Check out our Christian McCaffrey player prop bets and Jalen Hurts prop bets.

Patrick Mahomes player prop picks made 1/27/2023 at 6:27 a.m. ET.

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Written By:
Mike Spector
Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”