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Quarterback Joe Burrow #9 of the Cincinnati Bengals throws the ball against the Kansas City Chiefs in third quarter in the AFC Championship Game at Arrowhead Stadium on Jan. 30, 2022.
Quarterback Joe Burrow #9 of the Cincinnati Bengals throws the ball against the Kansas City Chiefs in third quarter in the AFC Championship Game at Arrowhead Stadium on Jan. 30, 2022. Jamie Squire/Getty Images/AFP

In the first rematch of the AFC Championship Game since 2011-12, the Cincinnati Bengals will face the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday. Read on for our Bengals vs. Chiefs NFL picks based on current NFL odds.

The Bengals earned an AFC Championship Game berth by beating the Buffalo Bills, who became the first preseason favorite not to reach the conference championship game since 2015. Cincinnati held Buffalo to a season-low 10 points and improved to 11-0 when scoring first this season.

Check out our Bengals vs. Chiefs player prop picks and Patrick Mahomes player prop picks.

Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow is now 5-1 in his postseason career, and his five playoff wins in his first two seasons match the franchise’s win total over the previous 53 years. With a win in this game, Burrow would become the first quarterback with four wins against Chiefs stud Patrick Mahomes.

Kansas City is playing in its fifth consecutive AFC Championship Game (2-2 in the previous four) and aims to avenge last year’s 27-24 overtime loss to Cincinnati. Mahomes now has nine playoff wins, the second-most for a quarterback in his first six seasons. In addition, he improved to 5-0 in the Divisional playoffs, with an 11-0 TD-INT ratio.

Here is our best Bengals vs. Chiefs NFL pick for the AFC Conference Championship (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Check out our 49ers vs. Eagles picks and NFL best bets for the Conference Championships.

Bengals vs. Chiefs game info

Date: Sunday, Jan. 29, 6:30 p.m. ET
Location: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO
Weather: 27 degrees, 11% chance of precipitation, 11-mph NNE wind

Bengals vs. Chiefs odds

Bengals vs. Chiefs odds analysis

Kansas City opened as consensus 3-point home favorites, but the line jumped the fence early in the week to Cincinnati -1. The Bengals had reached as high as -2.5 at many sportsbooks, but Chiefs backers seemed to weigh in heavily at that number, and since Mahomes has been practicing in full and been seen walking without a limp, the line flipped back to Kansas City -1.5. 

The O/U opened at 47.5 and has since moved towards the Over, sitting at 48 and even 48.5 at FanDuel. 

Looking to get an early start on The Big Game? Check out our break down of the hypothetical Super Bowl odds and lines ahead of Championship Weekend, as well as our 2023 Super Bowl odds.

Bengals vs. Chiefs pick

Bengals vs. Chiefs Under 48 (-110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

The Bengals are 21-5 ATS in their last 26 games, making them the most profitable team ATS in the NFL over the previous two seasons. However, a big part of that ATS success is because of the Cincinnati defense led by defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo, which is why the Under makes the most sense.

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The Bengals held the Bills to a season-worst 64 rushing yards and their second-worst red zone touchdown percentage (33%) of the season last week. They pressured quarterback Josh Allen on 34% of dropbacks, and Allen went 4-of-11 (36%) when targeting wideout Stefon Diggs (the worst completion percentage in any game as teammates). 

Mahomes is nursing a high ankle sprain, an injury that typically keeps players out for multiple weeks. He faces a Bengals defense that allowed the lowest completion rate and passer rating during the regular season. In addition, Cincinnati has held Mahomes to 252.3 passing yards per game and 7.5 yards per attempt in the three head-to-head meetings leading up to this, and we expect those numbers to drop with him not fully healthy. 

Meanwhile, Kansas City pressured Burrow on just 22.2% of dropbacks in Week 13, their second-lowest pressure rate of the season. Look for the Chiefs to be more successful against an offensive line that was without three starters last week and to have a different game plan than Buffalo, who pressured Burrow on eight dropbacks (21.1%). Burrow finished his first playoff game last week with zero interceptions and one or fewer sacks taken. We don't expect that to happen for a second straight week.

Bengals vs. Chiefs best odds

DraftKings (-110)

Over -110, Under -110Over -115, Under -105Over -110, Under -110Over -110, Under -110Over -110, Under -110

The most interesting discrepancy among the sportsbooks is that Caesars is the only one that has lowered its O/U from an opening number of 47.5. Under backers are likely choosing between DraftKings and BetMGM with their line of 48 points, while Over backers would be wise to make their wagers at Caesars. 

Bengals-Chiefs pick made 1/27/2023 at 6:24 a.m. ET.

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