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Bengals vs. Chiefs Player Prop Picks, Predictions for AFC Championship Game: Will Chase Score Again?

Philip Wood

Last Updated: January 29, 2023 4:10 PM EST • 3 min 30 sec read.

This will be the second consecutive year that the Cincinnati Bengals and Kansas City Chiefs will meet in the AFC Championship Game. The Bengals were able to win last year. Here are Bengals vs. Chiefs player prop picks based on the best NFL odds.

Patrick Mahomes’ ankle has been the main talking point all week, and it seems as though it is going to be just fine for the AFC title game. Even while suffering the injury in last week’s win over the Jacksonville Jaguars, Mahomes threw for 195 yards and two touchdowns. Travis Kelce ended the game with 14 catches for 98 yards and two touchdowns, while Isaiah Pacheco rushed 12 times for 95 yards.

The Bengals were dominant in their win over the Buffalo Bills. Joe Burrow threw for 242 yards and two touchdowns, and his depleted offensive line allowed just one sack. Joe Mixon rushed for over 100 yards for just the second time this season and Ja’Marr Chase cashed on his anytime scorer prop for the third game in a row.

After you've made your Bengals-Chiefs picks and Patrick Mahomes player prop picks, check out our best Bengals vs. Chiefs player prop picks for the AFC Championship (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook, DraftKings Sportsbook, and Caesars; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Check out our NFL best bets, conference championship parlay picks, 49ers vs. Eagles player prop picks, and all of our top predictions for the AFC and NFC Championships.

Bengals vs. Chiefs player prop picks for AFC Championship

  • Kadarius Toney Under 35.5 receiving yards (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • Ja’Marr Chase anytime touchdown scorer (-105 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
  • Joe Burrow Under 277.5 Passing Yards (-103 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐

Bengals vs. Chiefs odds

Check out our Super Bowl odds and Super Bowl MVP odds.

Bengals vs. Chiefs player props

Kadarius Toney Under 35.5 receiving yards (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Last week, Toney saw his most targets as a Chief. He hauled in five catches on seven targets, yet he still only managed 36 yards. Since joining the Chiefs, he has had just 24 targets in eight games. Though last week was an outlier, oddsmakers have ramped up his total for this game likely because the public perception is it will be a shootout.

New users can bet $5 to get $150 back in bonus bets when signing up via FanDuel's promo code and betting on Bengals vs. Chiefs picks.  

However, with the Chiefs trying to protect Mahomes’ ankle, there are going to be many more plays that feature Toney on the sideline as multiple tight ends or running backs take his place to block for Mahomes. 

Shop around for the best odds. The price at DraftKings is currently -135, while at FanDuel it is -114. Though that DraftKings price is steep, we’d take it if it was the best available number because Toney won’t be on the field or targeted enough when he is to hit this total.

Ja’Marr Chase anytime touchdown scorer (-105 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

Great players find ways to make great plays in big games, and Chase has shown that time and time again this season. He has scored in both playoff games after recording nine touchdowns in the regular season. He has a touchdown in three consecutive games and seven of his last nine.

When he went up against the Chiefs earlier this season, he did not score, but he caught seven balls for 97 yards. He has been targeted at least eight times in every game he’s played since the calendar turned to October. As Burrow’s go-to target, both in the middle of the field and in the red zone, these odds are more than fair and worthy of a wager.

Joe Burrow Under 277.5 passing yards (-103) ⭐⭐⭐

Despite playing incredible football, Burrow has only thrown for more than 275 yards once in his last six games. When he went up against the Chiefs earlier this season, he was a very efficient 25-for-31 for 286 yards and two touchdowns. 

Yet, with Mahomes’ ankle injury, it is likely that the Chiefs try to run the ball more than they usually do which could cause longer drives and keep the ball out of Burrow’s hands. Additionally, if Mahomes is more injured than we think, the Bengals could win this one without needing Burrow to throw for more than 250 yards.

Beyond that, DraftKings is currently offering a weekly special of Burrow throwing for 275-plus passing yards and Joe Mixon running for 60-plus rush yards at +310. With Burrow at -115 to cash his Over and Mixon at -120 to cash his Over of 58.5, this parlay seems like it’s easy money. So, why would DraftKings be putting it out there? Because Burrow vs. the Chiefs screams Over, but when you look at what he has done this season and the fact that the Chiefs are only allowing 220.1 yards passing per game, the Under starts to make a lot more sense.

Bengals vs. Chiefs player prop picks made 01/27/2023 at 9:35 a.m. ET.

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Written By:
Philip Wood
Phil has covered sports betting since 2016, and he has been with SportsBook Review since 2022. He previously hosted the College Football Pick 'Em podcast for CanesInsight.com. He is always looking for value, especially on lines that just seem too good to be true. His belief is that if a line doesn't make sense just assume oddsmakers know something you don't. He also loves in-season futures. There is so much value to be had as the public overreacts weekly. Bettors tend to forget just how long NFL and college football seasons are. After all, the Green Bay Packers were 2-5 in 2023 and they made it to the Divisional Round. When deciding where to bet, it comes down to value over everything. +100 is always better than -110. An alumnus of The U, Phil always holds out hope that the next head coach will be the one who turns the football program around. He is also a diehard Detroit Lions fan and is willing to forgive Dan Campbell for forgetting that a kicker can be useful.