Patrick Mahomes MNF Player Prop Bets: Touchdown Picks & Odds
Patrick Mahomes looks to shake off a rough statistical start to the season against the struggling Tampa Bay Buccaneers' defense.
Despite Mahomes’ slow start, the latest Monday Night Football odds have the Super Bowl odds front-runners favored by nine points as they look to move to 8-0.
With the Chiefs expected to win by so much, what are the best Mahomes MNF player prop bets?
Weather isn’t expected to be a factor for the 8:15 p.m. kickoff (ESPN/ABC) at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. That should be good news for Mahomes against the third-worst pass defense in football.
But he still enters the game with more interceptions than touchdowns. Will he get on the right track tonight? The below props are part of the MNF coverage, including our Buccaneers vs. Chiefs prediction.
Patrick Mahomes prop predictions for Monday Night Football
- Patrick Mahomes touchdown pick: Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-120 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Patrick Mahomes Over 1.5 interceptions (+105 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
- Patrick Mahomes Over 247.5 passing yards (-113 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
NFL odds as of Monday and subject to change. Track the NFL scores for the latest line movement and matchup info.
Patrick Mahomes touchdown pick vs. Buccaneers
Patrick Mahomes Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-120) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Mahomes has thrown two touchdown passes in three games this season. In his other four games combined, he’s thrown only two touchdown passes. Yet, tonight, his Over is the right play.
The Buccaneers are allowing 1.9 touchdown passes per game. Over the last three weeks, they’re allowing an average of 3.3 per game. Last week, they gave up four to Kirk Cousins, and the week before, they allowed Lamar Jackson to throw for five.
The price for this Over is a little steep, but it makes sense considering Mahomes threw at least two touchdown passes in nine regular-season games last year. FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365 each have this price listed at -120, the best of any major sportsbooks.
And maybe, just maybe, Mahomes will find his favorite receiver since he entering the league. Our Gabe Henderson dives into the Travis Kelce MNF player prop bets.
Best odds: -120 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 54.55%
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Patrick Mahomes player props
NFL picks made Monday; odds subject to change. Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!
Patrick Mahomes Over 0.5 interceptions (+105) ⭐⭐⭐
Earlier this week, when discussing the best Buccaneers vs. Chiefs MNF prop bets, Mahomes throwing an interception was one of my best plays. Nothing has changed between the writing of that article and now.
Though Mahomes should do better in many categories tonight, getting a price of +100 or better for him to throw a pick, something he’s done in every game this season, is too good to pass up. Many will point to his past as a reason he’ll break out of this funk, but he threw an interception in 11 regular season games last year.
The Buccaneers are intercepting opponents on just 1.69% of pass attempts, the ninth-worst mark in the league. But they’ve still picked off five passes this season. And with how Baker Mayfield has been playing, no Chiefs’ lead is safe. Therefore, Mahomes will throw plenty, and it’s worth betting on him to make a mistake.
Best odds: +105 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 48.78%
Patrick Mahomes Over 247.5 passing yards (-113) ⭐⭐⭐
Despite the frustrating start, Mahomes has hit this number in three of seven games and threw for 245 in another contest. And this week, he will take on a defense allowing 255.4 yards per game.
Another reason to like this total is the Buccaneers’ offense. They’re averaging 35.5 pass attempts per game this season, fifth-most in the league.
With Mayfield throwing a lot, he’ll either have success and force Mahomes to continue to exploit this weak secondary or fail, extending the length of the game. The latter will give Mahomes more offensive possessions than usual.
This total is set between 247.5 and 249.5 at our best NFL betting sites. While bet365 offers the best price of -110 for 249.5, the difference between that price and the price at FanDuel isn’t enough to warrant the extra two yards.
Best odds: -113 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 53.05%
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Buccaneers vs. Chiefs odds
Monday Night Football game info
- Matchup: Buccaneers vs. Chiefs
- Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET
- Where: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium (Kansas City, Mo.)
- How to watch: ESPN/ABC
- Weather: 63 degrees, 30% chance of precipitation, wind 9 mph SE
- Favorite: Chiefs -9 (-110 via DraftKings)
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