Justin Jefferson SNF Player Prop Bets: Touchdown Picks & Odds
Justin Jefferson gets a great matchup on Sunday Night Football, as his Minnesota Vikings take on the 24th-ranked Indianapolis Colts' pass defense.
The latest Sunday Night Football odds suggest the Vikings should end their two-game losing skid, as they’re 5-point favorites in their 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC/Peacock) matchup at U.S. Bank Stadium. Based on the matchup, the best Justin Jefferson SNF player prop bets are likely Overs.
Our Mike Spector expects it to be a tight game with his Colts vs. Vikings prediction.
The Colts enter the week allowing 227.8 passing yards per game. With Joe Flacco under center - and a big game expected with my Colts vs. Vikings SNF prop bets - their offense is more apt to keep pace with the Vikings.
That means Jefferson should see plenty of opportunities. Here are his best player props for Sunday night.
Justin Jefferson prop predictions for Sunday Night Football
- Justin Jefferson touchdown pick: Anytime touchdown scorer (-120 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Justin Jefferson Over 85.5 receiving yards (-113 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
- Justin Jefferson longest reception Over 27.5 yards (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
NFL odds as of Sunday and subject to change. Track the NFL scores for the latest line movement and matchup info.
Justin Jefferson touchdown pick vs. Colts
Justin Jefferson anytime touchdown scorer ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -120 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 54.55%
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This isn’t a flashy play, but it’s the safest available for this game across our NFL prop betting sites.
Jefferson started the season scoring a touchdown in four consecutive games. However, he’s scored only one touchdown in the last three weeks. Additionally, he’s yet to score more than one touchdown in a game this season.
The Colts’ pass defense allows 1.4 passing touchdowns per game this season. Considering Sam Darnold has thrown 14 touchdown passes this season, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him throw multiple this week. Jefferson accounts for over one-third of his touchdown passes, so he’s the most likely candidate to benefit from a big night from Darnold.
The price for this prop ranges from -120 to -140. The -140 offered by DraftKings gives Jefferson a nearly 4% better chance to hit this than BetMGM.
Justin Jefferson player props
NFL picks made Sunday; odds subject to change.
Justin Jefferson Over 85.5 receiving yards ⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -113 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 53.05%
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Since recording only 59 yards in Week 1, Jefferson has gone for at least 81 yards in six consecutive weeks. However, three of those six performances saw him finish with fewer than 85.5 yards. Still, he has an excellent floor that is only 4.5 yards below this total.
A wide receiver hasn’t topped this number against the Colts since Week 5. But that has more to do with matchups than the quality of the Colts’ defense. Their last three opponents were the Tennessee Titans, the Miami Dolphins without Tua Tagovailoa, and the depleted receiving corps of the Houston Texans.
Be wary of Aaron Jones running all over the third-worst rush defense in the league. But even if he does, Jefferson is the type of receiver who is always involved, as he’s been targeted at least six times in every game this season. All of our best sports betting sites offer the same total, but only FanDuel has a price below -115.
Justin Jefferson longest reception Over 27.5 yards ⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -110 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 52.38%
If this number was set at 26.5, it would be a four-star play. Jefferson has a catch for at least 27 yards in all but one of his games this season. However, in three of his seven games, his long for the contest was exactly 27 yards. He also hasn’t had a catch greater than 30 yards since Week 2.
However, he gets a good matchup tonight against a defense that has allowed six 40-yard plays this season, tied for third-most in the league. Additionally, the Colts rank 21st in the NFL allowing 10.4 yards per reception.
Every major sportsbook has this line set at 27.5, but BetMGM is the only one offering the Over for a price of less than -115.
Colts vs. Vikings odds
Sunday Night Football game info
- Matchup: Colts vs. Vikings
- Kickoff: 8:20 p.m. ET
- Where: U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, Minn.
- How to watch: NBC/Peacock
- Weather: Indoors
- Favorite: Vikings -5 (-110 via DraftKings)
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