Joe Burrow SNF Player Prop Bets: Touchdown Picks & Odds
Joe Burrow leads the 4-6 Cincinnati Bengals into a Sunday Night Football matchup as road underdogs against the 6-3 Los Angeles Chargers.
- Burrow is 11-3 ATS in his last 14 starts as an underdog and our Bengals vs. Chargers prediction expect Cincinnati to have a strong showing
- Burrow is 5-8 SU in night games but has lost each of his last six as an underdog, which is why our Bengals vs. Chargers player props don't think he'll have a big performance
- The Under is 8-2 in Sunday Night Football matchups this season, but our Ja'Marr Chase player props think there will be plenty of scoring
Our Sunday Night Football odds have the Chargers as 1.5-point home favorites and we factor that into our Joe Burrow SNF player prop bets.
In the final game on Sunday of our Week 11 NFL predictions, the Bengals' and Chargers' clash is set for 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC, Peacock) from SoFi Stadium.
Joe Burrow prop predictions for Sunday Night Football
- Joe Burrow touchdown pick: Burrow Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-146 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Joe Burrow Over 257.5 passing yards (-113 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
- Joe Burrow Under 9.5 rushing yards (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
NFL odds as of Sunday and subject to change. Track the NFL scores for the latest line movement and matchup info.
Joe Burrow touchdown pick vs. Chargers
Joe Burrow Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-146) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Burrow is coming off his third game with four or more passing touchdowns this season, which is tied with Lamar Jackson for the most in the league. The total for this game has also been bet up from an opening number of 44.5 to 47.5, suggesting that there is confidence that Cincinnati will do its part in scoring points.
Los Angeles is the only team to hold every opponent this season to 20 or fewer points. But facing a top-five scoring defense is no big deal for Burrow, as he is 7-2 with 17 passing touchdowns and just one interception against top-five scoring defenses since 2021 (including playoffs).
The Over is juiced as high as -155 (carrying a 60.78% implied probability) at BetMGM, so we are getting the best value at FanDuel, where a $10 winning wager would net $6.85 in profits.
Best odds: -146 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 59.35%
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Joe Burrow player props
NFL picks made Sunday; odds subject to change.
Joe Burrow Over 257.5 passing yards (-113) ⭐⭐⭐
Los Angeles ranks sixth in total defense and ninth in passing yards allowed per game, but those statistics do not tell the whole story.
The Kansas City Chiefs and Arizona Cardinals are the only two teams the Chargers have faced this year that rank in the top half of the league in offensive DVOA, and unsurprisingly, Los Angeles lost both of those games in its building.
Cincinnati will be the first top-10 passing offense L.A. has faced all season, and this is a three-star play with Tee Higgins expected to play.
Over backers should head to FanDuel to place this wager, as there is a nine-yard difference between BetMGM’s O/U of 266.5 passing yards on the high end of the market.
Best odds: -113 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 53.05%
Joe Burrow Under 9.5 rushing yards (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Burrow is not typically known for using his legs, but he has averaged 12.3 rushing yards per game this year. But while he has gone over this projected total in six of 10 games this season, he has three or fewer carries in seven of the last eight games.
Burrow could be under duress throughout this game too, as offensive tackle Orlando Brown Jr. (knee/fibula) returned to practice Thursday but is still not officially active.
FanDuel has Burrow’s O/U of rushing yards set at 8.5, so I am taking advantage of the slightly better number at BetMGM.
Best odds: -110 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 52.38%
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Bengals vs. Chargers odds
Sunday Night Football game info
- Matchup: Bengals vs. Chargers
- Kickoff: 8:20 p.m. ET
- Where: SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, Calif.)
- How to watch: NBC, Peacock
- Weather: Indoors
- Favorite: Chargers -1.5 (-110 via BetMGM)
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