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First QB Benched Odds, Picks: Mayfield Favored to be 1st Starter to Lose Job

Michael McClymont

Last Updated: September 5, 2023 2:19 PM EDT • 3 min 4 sec read.

Of the many NFL futures bets available, one little known market is the first quarterback to be benched. Here are the odds and our picks for the first quarterback benched this season, using the best NFL betting sites.

Week 1 of the NFL season is here, but there's still time to add futures bets to your portfolio. While bettors have likely filed their picks for NFL MVP, Rookie of the Year, and others, there are futures markets with bets that can cash midseason.

One such market is the first quarterback to be benched. The requirement is for the Week 1 starter to be replaced for a non-injury-related reason. Though 31 starting quarterbacks have been selected (we're waiting on you, Arizona Cardinals) and depth charts have been filled out, there are QBs who will be replaced in-season for poor play.

Here are our picks for the first quarterback to be benched this season (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

First QB benched odds

(QB must start Week 1, benching non-injury related)

PlayerOdds
Baker Mayfield+300
Sam Howell+500
Ryan Tannehill+600
C.J. Stroud+700
Mac Jones+900
Desmond Ridder+900
Anthony Richardson+1000
Jimmy Garoppolo+1400
Jordan Love+1400
Bryce Young+1400

First QB benched odds analysis

Not all starting QBs are at risk of being benched. You'll find Patrick Mahomes at +100000 odds and Aaron Rodgers at +50000 to be replaced by their backups. But the top 10 players on this oddsboard could all disappoint and get a quick hook.

Again, the Cardinals don't have a quarterback on this board because new head coach Jonathan Gannon has yet to decide between journeyman Joshua Dobbs and rookie fifth-round pick Clayton Tune. However, once the starter is revealed, that player will be our recommended bet for the first quarterback benched.

First QB benched picks

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Anthony Richardson (+1000)

Baker Mayfield has the shortest odds on the board at +300 after winning a close quarterback competition with 2021 draft pick Kyle Trask for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' starting QB job. He's the favorite to be the first starter replaced due to his inconsistent play, accuracy issues, and penchant for long stretches of poor performances.

The Bucs also have an early bye (Week 5), and if they start 0-4 after meetings with the Minnesota Vikings, Chicago Bears, Philadelphia Eagles, and New Orleans Saints, the week off is the perfect time to prepare Trask for his first NFL start.

Trask was solid in preseason action, going 45-for-69 for 509 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception.

But I envision head coach Todd Bowles practicing patience with his veteran quarterback. While Trask is young and unproven, the majority of the Bucs' roster is veteran-laden. With stalwarts such as Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Lavonte David, and Shaq Barrett, they'll want to be given an opportunity to surprise in the winnable NFC South before waving the white flag.

Bowles also enters the season on the hot seat. He was a candidate to be fired after the Bucs whimpered out of the playoffs in the wild-card round last season. He's among the favorites to be the first coach fired, so expect he will give Mayfield lots of rope before turning to Trask.

For these reasons, we're turning our attention to a rookie who could be replaced early if the lights prove too bright for him. 

Anthony Richardson was handed the starting quarterback job for the Indianapolis Colts without much of a competition with veteran Gardner Minshew. The Colts made the call after one preseason game in which Richardson went 7-for-12 for 67 yards and threw that ugly interception. The rookie's feet weren't set and he threw the ball hastily and inaccurately when faced with pressure. 

In short, the starter decision was based predominantly on wanting to get the ball rolling on Richardson's development rather than any true competition.

There's a world in which Richardson isn't quite ready to face NFL-level blitzes and pressures, throws a number of interceptions early, and is given a breather. It's the reason we're taking a flier on a rookie quarterback to lead the league in interceptions this season.

The Colts open the season with the Jacksonville Jaguars and Houston Texans before facing a string of tough defenses in the Baltimore Ravens, L.A. Rams, Tennessee Titans, Jaguars, Cleveland Browns, and New Orleans Saints.

At +1000 odds, it's worth a shot that Richardson doesn't go the entire season as the starter.

Check out our best NFL betting sites:

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Written By:
Michael McClymont
Michael McClymont is a Publishing Editor for Sportsbook Review, providing coverage on NFL and college football. Prior to joining SBR, he covered football as an NFL editor at theScore. Mike has more than 15 years of experience in the journalism industry as a writer and editor. Mike enjoys a good futures bet and to hammer live in-game odds. While his favorite bet was Julian Edelman Super Bowl LIII MVP at +4000, his biggest regret was cashing out a Lamar Jackson 2019 MVP bet in Week 8, a week before he cemented the award with his highlight-reel rushing TD against the Bengals.