Are you seeking a realistic NFL futures bet with long odds? Our recommendation is to look into the player prop market, and particularly the quarterback to lead the league in interceptions. Here's our rookie QB interception leader pick based on the latest NFL odds from our best sports betting apps.
A rookie passer is always a good bet to throw the most interceptions in any NFL season. Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence shared the league lead in INTs with Matthew Stafford in 2021 when he threw 17 picks. DeShone Kizer did the same for the Cleveland Browns in 2017 while tossing 22 interceptions.
Davis Mills shared the lead for the most interceptions in 2022 with Dak Prescott at 15 during his first full year as the starting quarterback for the Houston Texans. Same with Drew Lock in his first full campaign under center for the Denver Broncos in 2020 (15).
And, of course, Peyton Manning set the rookie record in 1998 with 28 picks, proving that the most talented quarterbacks and future Hall of Fame passers are not exempt from this list.
Manning has been begging for someone to take this record off his hands, and he just could get his wish this season.
Three quarterbacks were taken over the first four picks of the 2023 NFL Draft. Bryce Young, CJ Stroud, and Anthony Richardson each hold the chance to start right away for their respective teams, and they could be given long leashes.
Despite the recent history and the reality that these rookies will be playing against NFL defenses for the first time, they each carry long odds to lead the league in interceptions. The prices vary greatly at our best sports betting sites, and the odds are just too juicy to ignore.
Most interceptions thrown regular-season odds
|Bryce Young||+3000 🔥||+1600||+1200 ❄️||+2500|
|CJ Stroud||+2500 🔥||+1600||+1000 ❄️||+1500|
|Anthony Richardson||+5000 🔥||N/A||+1200 ❄️||+2500|
|Will Levis||+15000||N/A||+10000 ❄️||+15000|
Check out our Rookie QB Passing Yards Leaders
I first saw this prop at bet365, where I was enticed to make a wager on a rookie passer. So imagine my surprise when I checked other books and saw even longer odds.
Will Levis is included in this chart because he could also get significant playing time for the Tennessee Titans if the season breaks in his favor. But the most realistic chances lie with Young, Stroud, and Richardson.
The Indianapolis Colts selected Richardson with the fourth overall pick in 2023. His raw skills and undeveloped profile best fit the criteria for the player to throw the most picks. But it's not likely he'll play enough games to lead that category if Richardson struggles mightily. Backup Gardner Minshew is a capable quarterback and could be given a long stretch of outings if it's deemed Richardson isn't quite ready for the starting role.
That leaves Young and Stroud.
Most interceptions thrown best bet
Stroud (+2500 via DraftKings)
Young, the first overall pick in the draft, has already been named the starting quarterback for the Carolina Panthers. That's not surprising after the Panthers traded their first- and second-round picks, 2024 first-round selection, and 2025 second-round pick to the Chicago Bears for the right to draft Young.
Despite his short stature, Young was safe and accurate with the football in college and didn't struggle to find the right color jersey. He threw seven picks against 47 touchdowns during his first year as a starter at Alabama in 2021, and just five interceptions in 2022.
But the game won't come as easy in the NFL, though there's a great support system around him with former quarterbacks Frank Reich and Josh McCown as his head coach and quarterbacks coach, respectively.
Barring injury, Young will play enough games to potentially reach the top of this stat category. But his offensive line ranked 16th in the league, according to PFF. The unit features right tackle Taylor Moton, who allowed just 21 pressures in 2022.
The Panthers will also face only five teams that ranked in the top 10 in pass defense last season.
Mike Clay of ESPN is projecting Young to throw 13 interceptions this coming campaign, and that's right in line with the league leaders of the past three years.
Stroud, the second overall draft pick, was also careful with the football in his two years as a starter at Ohio State, throwing six picks during both seasons.
He's expected to start the year under center for the Houston Texans, as his backup Mills led the league in picks last year.
Two stud tackles in Laremy Tunsil - PFF's top-rated tackle in pass protection - and Tytus Howard will protect Stroud. But the interior of the Texans' line leaves much to be desired, and it dragged down the group's ranking to 25th at PFF.
Also working against Stroud is the Texans' shallow group of playmakers, and that he'll be playing under defensive-minded rookie head coach Demeco Ryans, and a rookie offensive coordinator in Bobby Slowik.
Though the Texans play in the AFC South and therefore face a weak schedule, their non-division games include highly touted secondaries that the New York Jets, Denver Broncos, Cleveland Browns, Baltimore Ravens, and New Orleans Saints field. The Texans should find themselves playing from behind a lot and asking Stroud to throw in garbage time.
Clay is projecting Stroud to throw 14 interceptions in 2023, just one off from the league lead in 2022. That makes Stroud our best bet to lead the league in interceptions thrown. And he's certainly worth a wager at +2500 odds through DraftKings.
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