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Rookie QB Passing Yards Leaders: Bryce Young Favored, but More Upside in Long Shot Pick

Shane Jackson

Last Updated: July 14, 2023 9:49 AM EDT • 2 min 42 sec read.

Football season is on the horizon, and our best sports betting sites are taking advantage of the anticipation by releasing a wide variety of NFL odds markets. That includes most regular-season passing yards by a rookie, a market that Bryce Young is favored to win after being selected with the No. 1 overall pick.

The future is bright for the teams that selected a rookie quarterback in the 2023 NFL Draft, particularly the three teams that picked a signal caller in the top-five.

While all these highly touted prospects will have a tough time besting running back Bijan Robinson in the Offensive Rookie of the Year race, DraftKings is offering an exclusive market that features rookie quarterbacks. You can take a stance on a young signal caller by betting on the most regular-season passing yards market.

Bryce Young is the favorite after landing with the Carolina Panthers. But a No. 1 overall pick hasn't led all rookies in passing yards since 2019, suggesting there might be value in fading the -120 favorite.

Here are our picks on the rookie quarterback to record the most regular-season passing yards in 2023, using odds from our best NFL betting sites.

Most regular season rookie passing yards odds 2023

(odds as of July 13)

PlayerDraftKings
Bryce Young-120
C.J. Stroud+105
Anthony Richardson+2000
Will Levis+4000
Clayton Tune+6500
Stetson Bennett+8000
Hendon Hooker+10000

The case for Clayton Tune (+6500)

In my Bryce Young vs. C.J. Stroud betting odds and predictions piece, I suggested betting on the former to finish with more passing yards. You can get the same -120 price tag by backing Young in that head-to-head market, in which he only needs to finish with more passing yards than Stroud.

With that bet already in the portfolio, I have no reason to add more Young investment in this market. I'm more tempted by a 65/1 long-shot price on Arizona Cardinals rookie quarterback Clayton Tune instead. A $10 bet could net a $650 payout, if Tune were to lead all rookies in passing yards this season.

Hot take? Well, allow me to make the case for the price point here.

We don't have to go back very far for an example of a Day 3 pick making an instant impact. Brock Purdy finished with 1,374 passing yards in nine games last season after the San Francisco 49ers selected him with the final pick of the 2022 NFL Draft. Only Kenny Pickett of the Pittsburgh Steelers finished with more passing yards (2,404) in 13 games of action.

The difference is, Tune has a chance to start in the season opener after being drafted in Round 5 by the Cardinals. Kyler Murray, the franchise QB, is recovering from a torn ACL and remains unlikely to be ready for the start of the season. Colt McCoy, who is 36-years-old, is likely the leader in the clubhouse after making three starts last year.

But the Cardinals could opt for seeing what they have in Tune sooner rather than later, particularly with low expectations entering the year. After all, Arizona is the clear favorite to post the worst record in the NFL this year.

Bleacher Report even picked Tune to win the starting job in a bold predictions piece ahead of NFL training camp.

If that does happen, Tune's 65/1 price tag will be long gone. First-round quarterbacks still have a talent advantage, but game script could lead to more passing situations for Tune and Co. Tune tossed 4,069 passing yards in his final collegiate season at Houston, and has enough confidence to not be scared of the moment if given the opportunity in the NFL.

Stay tuned throughout the season to see if this 65/1 ticket could have some life.

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Recent rookie QB passing leaders

SeasonPlayerYards
2022Kenny Pickett2,404
2021Mac Jones3,801
2020Justin Herbert4,336
2019Kyler Murray3,722
2018Baker Mayfield3,725
2017DeShone Kizer2,894
2016Carson Wentz3,782
2015Jameis Winston4,042

Here are our best NFL betting sites:

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Written By:
Shane Jackson
Shane Jackson has been writing for Sportsbook Review since 2022, though his passion for sports, writing, and betting runs much longer than that. He graduated from the University of Kansas with a journalism degree in 2017 and has been covering sports ever since, working for MLB.com, Manhattan Mercury, Lawrence Journal-World, WynnBET, Bet Chicago Sports, BetNOLA, and BetMGM. Jackson cares about creating quality sports betting content above all else. He uses a mixture of models, information, film, analysis, and a top-down approach to locate every best bet shared for SBR. He never gives out a pick that he wouldn’t be willing to spend his own money on. Jackson is focused on finding +EV bets on a daily basis for a variety of sports such as NCAAF, NCAAB, NFL, NBA, WNBA, and MLB. He usually bets on props but is willing to wager on a spread or total when there is an edge. Don’t ask him how many bets he has placed on a typical college football Saturday. Jackson doesn’t care if you follow him on social media, but his Twitter account has info on how you can follow his bets through multiple third-party platforms. He just wants you to read all the great work from the SBR team.