Falcons vs. Buccaneers Predictions, Picks & Odds Week 7: Will NFC South Rivals Buck O/U Trends?
The race for top billing in the NFC South is on the line as the Atlanta Falcons face off against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and our top Falcons vs. Buccaneers predictions anticipate both offenses finding success in Week 7. All our NFL picks are based on the NFL odds from our best sports betting apps.
The Atlanta Falcons' five-game home winning streak was broken last week with a 24-16 loss to the Washington Commanders. Quarterback Desmond Ridder had won his first five home starts in the NFL after remaining undefeated in college (26-0).
In Week 6, the Detroit Lions handed the Tampa Bay Buccaneers a 20-6 defeat, marking the second time this season that the Bucs lost by 14 points. Despite the setback, Tampa Bay maintains its lead in the NFC South with a record of 3-2, but they would fall half a game behind the Falcons if Atlanta wins Sunday.
Here is our best Falcons vs. Buccaneers prediction and our NFL picks (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Falcons vs. Buccaneers prediction
Over 38 (-110 via Caesars, bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
With the Falcons and Buccaneers scoring 22 combined points last week and the two teams having a combined O/U record of 2-9, it would be easy to say another defensive struggle is on tap. However, oddsmakers have set this total low to take advantage of bettors blindly following the trends. We believe there will be more scoring in this game than projected.
Tampa Bay has allowed the second-fewest third downs in the league (94) but its defense should be exploited by Atlanta’s strength. The Falcons are one of the league’s most run-heavy teams despite having a lead for just 12.7% of their offensive plays (30th in the league), per Sharp Football Analysis. However, Tampa Bay ranks 21st in Defensive DVOA against the run and 18th in rushing success rate, a significant weakness despite a top-six overall ranking in Defensive DVOA.
The Bucs had plenty of practice facing solid run defenses, as the Falcons are their fifth opponent in six games that allows fewer than 100 yards per game. However, if they choose to attack more through the air, Atlanta does not pressure the quarterback much, as its 2.3 sacks and takeaways per game on defense rank 30th. In addition, Tampa Bay has one of the best pass-blocking units, led by offensive tackle Tristan Wirfs, who PFF grades as the best individual pass blocker this season.
This is a four-star play, as the Falcons and Buccaneers were two of the eight least penalized teams last week, and a cleaner game — especially from both offenses — should lead to more sustained drives.
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Falcons vs. Buccaneers best odds
Caesars, bet365 (-110)
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 38.5 | 38.5 | 38.5 | 38 | 38 |
| Over (-110) | Over (-110) | Over (-110) | Over (-110) | Over (-110) |
We can choose Caesars or bet365 from the best sports betting sites, as each offers a half-point lower than the rest of their competitors. Four of the previous five meetings between these teams have seen 47 or more points scored, and the Over is 2-2 in the four games between these teams since Arthur Smith was hired as Falcons head coach. We would play this Over up to 39.5.
Falcons vs. Buccaneers odds
Falcons vs. Buccaneers odds analysis
The best sports betting apps have seen the total shade towards the Under. FanDuel has had the most significant drop from its opening number of 40, initially lowering to 39.5 before coming down another full point. DraftKings also opened at 40, while Caesars and BetMGM have reached their current numbers from an initial total of 39.5. There has been solid two-way action on the O/U thus far, as early wagers are 54/46 in support of the Under.
The best sportsbooks are in unison with a spread of Tampa Bay -2.5, with FanDuel and BetMGM juiced to -115 to back the favorites. This line has remained frozen at -2.5 at the best live betting sites, while the only thing slightly fluctuating is the juice attached to each side. It will be interesting to see if this line ever reaches the key number of three, considering 68% of the wagers are on the Buccaneers. Atlanta is 0-5 ATS in its previous five games.
Falcons vs. Buccaneers game info
- When: Sunday, Oct. 22 at 1:00 p.m. ET
- Where: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL
- How to watch: FOX
- Weather: 83 degrees, 5% chance of precipitation, wind 5 mph NW
Falcons-Buccaneers prediction made 10/18/2023 at 6:27 a.m. ET
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