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Isiah Pacheco of the Kansas City Chiefs runs with the football as part of our Week 12 Chiefs vs. Raiders NFL predictions
Isiah Pacheco #10 of the Kansas City Chiefs runs with the ball against the Philadelphia Eagles in the first half at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium on November 20, 2023 in Kansas City, Missouri. Photo by David Eulitt/Getty Images/AFP

Our predictions for the Kansas City Chiefs vs. Las Vegas Raiders game are based on the best NFL odds from our best sports betting apps, with a focus on Kansas City running back Isiah Pacheco making an impact against the Vegas defense.

The Kansas City Chiefs, aiming to recover from a significant setback after surrendering a lead against the Philadelphia Eagles last week, seek to return to their dominant form against the Las Vegas Raiders. With a 7-3 record, the Chiefs look to reclaim their winning momentum against the 5-6 Raiders and reestablish their commanding presence in the upcoming matchup.

Could the key to making that result become a reality be the play of the Kansas City rushing attack, more specifically Isiah Pacheco, against a vulnerable Raiders rushing defense?

Head over to our NFL Week 12 predictions and NFL Week 12 player props to accompany our best Chiefs vs. Raiders prediction and our NFL picks (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Chiefs vs. Raiders prediction

Pacheco Over 66.5 rushing yards (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐

With the Chiefs heavily favored, this week could be an opportunity to back their top running back in a positive game script against a weak Las Vegas rushing defense. The Raiders rank 27th in the NFL in run defense, allowing 132.3 yards per game on the ground this season. 

Chiefs running back Isiah Pacheco has dominated the touches out of the Kansas City backfield this season, securing nearly 75% of the team’s running back carries. It’s surprising to see that his rushing total for such a favorable matchup is not any higher than the recent performances that Pacheco has churned out.

Pacheco has rushing workloads of 66 and 89 rushing yards over his past two games against the Miami Dolphins and Eagles, respectively. His ability to gash the best run defense in the NFL (Philadelphia) for 4.7 YPC on Monday night lends to a belief that Pacheco can carry over his success against the Raiders.

Given Kansas City’s recent inefficiencies in the passing game as a result of its abysmal wide receiver corps, it could make sense for the Chiefs to lean on Pacheco as they look to get back in the win column by rebounding from the MNF debacle against Philly. The Raiders have allowed opposing lead rushers to clear this yardage total in four of their last five games.

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Chiefs vs. Raiders best odds

FanDuel (-114)

DraftKingsFanDuelBetMGMCaesarsbet365
Pacheco Over 67.5 rushing yardsPacheco Over 66.5 rushing yardsn/aPacheco Over 67.5 rushing yardsPacheco Over 67.5 rushing yards
-115-114n/a-117-110

At 67.5 rushing yards for Isiah Pacheco, DraftKings and Caesars list a slightly less favorable line than FanDuel’s 66.5. With FanDuel also offering better odds by a penny, we like FanDuel for this prop.

bet365 is another fine option because their odds sit at -110, with Pacheco needing only one extra yard to clear it. BetMGM needs to be better about releasing player prop lines earlier on Fridays, but check their lines before submitting your wager.

Chiefs vs. Raiders odds

Chiefs vs. Raiders odds analysis

The Chiefs opened as eight-point favorites and have seen that line move to between -8.5 and -9.5 across our recommended sportsbooks. Only 43% of wagers have come in on the Chiefs.

The total opened at 44.5 and sits between 42.5 and 43 across our best sportsbooks. A sizeable 64% of bets have come in on the Over.

Chiefs vs. Raiders game info

  • When: Sunday, Nov. 26, at 4:05 p.m. ET
  • Where: Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, NV
  • How to watch: CBS
  • Weather: Indoors

Chiefs-Raiders prediction made Friday at 1:45 p.m. ET

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