Buccaneers vs. Chiefs Prediction, MNF, Tonight: Monday Night Football Picks & Odds
The depleted Tampa Bay Buccaneers head to Arrowhead Stadium for Monday Night Football at 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN, ABC) against the Kansas City Chiefs.
- The Chiefs are the Super Bowl odds favorites and the only undefeated team in the NFL
- Our Buccaneers vs. Chiefs prediction is backing Kansas City as a 9-point favorite by the Monday Night Football odds, with Tampa Bay being down both its star receivers
- Despite an iffy start for Patrick Mahomes, he has the second-shortest NFL MVP odds
Our Week 9 NFL predictions and Buccaneers vs. Chiefs player props expect these two QBs to put up numbers that remind fans of their legendary matchup in college.
Buccaneers vs. Chiefs odds movement: Sunday Night Football
There's been minimal movement across the best sportsbooks heading into Monday Night Football. The Chiefs opened -9, and while that line moved a half-point in either direction for a time, Kansas City is a 9-point favorite ahead of kickoff.
However, 60% of the money is on Tampa Bay covering with just 40% on Kansas City. The Over has 69% of the money and is hovering around 45.5.
Best Buccaneers vs. Chiefs picks
NFL picks based on the odds from our best NFL betting sites. Odds subject to change.
- Against the spread pick: Chiefs -9 (-110 via Caesars) vs. Buccaneers ⭐⭐⭐
- Player prop: Patrick Mahomes Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-120 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Buccaneers vs. Chiefs against the spread prediction: Monday Night Football
Chiefs to cover the spread: -9 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -110 via Caesars | Implied probability: 52.38%
In many ways, the Chiefs are winning in spite of Patrick Mahomes. The two-time MVP became just the second quarterback in the last 30 years to throw more interceptions than touchdowns while leading his team to a 7-0 start.
Now Mahomes faces a Buccaneers team that has three losses when scoring 26 points this season (most in the NFL), which shows how leaky their defense is.
Chiefs defense remains stout
Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield leads the NFL with 21 passing touchdowns and is second with 2,189 passing yards. However, without Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, Tampa Bay’s offense will find it difficult to move the ball against a Chiefs defense that ranks fifth in scoring (17.6 points allowed per game) and total defense (295.0 allowed).
Kansas City has held five of their first seven opponents under their season scoring average, including two top-10 scoring offenses. And if the Chiefs hold the Buccaneers to 27 or fewer points, they would tie the 2005 Baltimore Ravens for the longest streak of consecutive games holding opponents to that point total (29 games).
Thus, with injuries to two of its best skill position players, Tampa Bay is in for its toughest test of the season.
Mahomes is built for prime time
Mahomes and the Chiefs have won and covered in all three night games this season. And since his rookie year, he is 27-18-1 ATS in prime time games, second only to Jared Goff in that span.
Meanwhile, Baker Mayfield is 1-6 SU on Monday Night Football, while covering the spread in just one of those games.
Caesars is one of the only best sports betting sites where you can back the Chiefs at -9 at the standard -110 juice, while BetMGM and FanDuel are at -9.5. A winning $10 wager for the Chiefs to cover the nine points would pay a $9.09 profit.
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Buccaneers vs. Chiefs player prop
Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!
Patrick Mahomes Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-120) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Tampa Bay has allowed 14 touchdown passes in the last four games after allowing just one through the first four. And since the Buccaneers have allowed the most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks over the last four weeks, this is the time I am happily backing Patrick Mahomes to break out of an early-season “slump.”
The Buccaneers have allowed a top-three fantasy quarterback four times this year. Meanwhile, Mahomes is coming off his best fantasy football performance of the season last week (18.1 points), and while he has only thrown multiple touchdown passes three times this season, these are still great odds to back him to do it a fourth time.
Mahomes to throw two or more passing touchdowns has as high as a 56.90% implied probability based on Caesars’ -132 odds, so I am taking advantage of the best price at FanDuel.
Best odds: -120 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 54.44%
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Buccaneers vs. Chiefs odds
See all of this week's NFL odds and NFL scores.
Monday Night Football game info
- Matchup: Buccaneers vs. Chiefs
- Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET
- Where: Arrowhead Stadium (Kansas City, Mo.)
- How to watch: ESPN, ABC
- Weather: 64 degrees, 70% chance of precipitation, wind 10 mph S
- Favorite: Chiefs -9.5 (-110 via BetMGM)
NFL betting odds pages
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- bet365 Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our bet365 Review
- FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
- DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
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