The Kansas City Chiefs host the Buffalo Bills at Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday of Week 14, and we offer our best Bills vs. Chiefs NFL player props based on the best NFL odds.
In their previous outing, the Buffalo Bills experienced a close defeat, falling short in a 37-34 overtime battle against the NFC-leading Philadelphia Eagles in Week 12.
The Bills outgained the Eagles, 505-378, and controlled possession for nearly 14 minutes longer. Alas, they come off a Week 13 bye week with just a 21% chance to make the playoffs, per ESPN Analytics, even as they rank fifth in the entire NFL in point differential (+101).
After last week's 27-19 loss to the Green Bay Packers on Sunday Night Football, the Kansas City Chiefs (8-4) carry the positive note that they have won 11 consecutive games following a loss. If they do slip up in Week 14, though, the Chiefs may slide down the list in the Super Bowl odds.
In addition to our Josh Allen vs. Patrick Mahomes player props and Bills-Chiefs prediction, here are our best Bills vs. Chiefs NFL player props for Week 14 (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Bills vs. Chiefs NFL player props: Week 14
Josh Allen Under 1.5 passing touchdowns (+105 via DraftKings, BetMGM, bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
It is no surprise that we are getting plus-money odds on this bet, considering Allen has thrown for at least two touchdowns in each of his five head-to-head meetings with Kansas City. He also has three-plus passing touchdowns in three straight games entering Week 14, and in two games with Joe Brady as offensive coordinator, Allen has a 5-2 TD-INT ratio and has averaged 307 yards per game.
However, the Bills' designed rush percentage has increased from 36% to 43% under Brady. In addition, Allen is under center 29% of the time (compared to 26% with Ken Dorsey calling plays this season), so we expect Buffalo to build upon its 173-rushing yard performance (its third-most rushing yards of the season) and attack the Chiefs more on the ground when it gets in close.
This is a three-star play, as Allen was the team's leading rusher last week and scored two rushing touchdowns, and we expect Brady to build upon that success and utilize Allen's legs again this week, especially in the red zone.
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James Cook anytime touchdown scorer (+175 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
Doubling down on our idea that the Bills will commit to the run more, we find great value in James Cook's anytime touchdown scorer odds.
Cook has gone eight consecutive games without a rushing touchdown, but he has added two receiving touchdowns over the last six games. Now, he faces a Chiefs defense that has allowed rushing touchdowns to six different players this season.
Kansas City entered last week against Green Bay ranked in the bottom 11 in explosive run rate allowed and the bottom four in yards after contact per attempt allowed. The Chiefs then allowed 129 rushing yards to the Packers and 5.2 yards per rush, and they now rank 28th in the league in yards per rush allowed (4.6).
Meanwhile, Buffalo's 40 rushing attempts last week were a season-high, and it had seven rushes of 10-plus yards. If the Bills have as much success off play-action as the Packers did last week (144 yards off play-action were their second-most in a game this season), that should open up running lanes for Cook if Kansas City is more concerned with limiting big passing plays.
Travis Kelce Over 6.5 receptions (+100 via BetMGM, DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Kansas City seemingly gets little production from its wide receivers each week, and last week was no exception, as the Chiefs' wide receivers combined for 106 receiving yards - their third-lowest total of the season.
It did not help that Patrick Mahomes was off-target on a season-worst 26% of his passes. He should be more comfortable at home this week, and we expect head coach Andy Reid to devise ways to get his best receiving option involved in a game of this magnitude.
Kelce scored 12.1 fantasy points last week, which ranked sixth among tight ends, and he has been a top-12 tight end in just two of the last six weeks, with one receiving touchdown over the previous five. However, he has destroyed Sean McDermott's heavy zone coverage scheme, averaging eight catches per game in the last five meetings, with double-digit targets in three of them.
Considering the Chiefs have nearly as many games with scoring fewer than 20 points this season (five) as they did from 2019 to 2022 (six), we are lower on Kelce's receiving yards or anytime touchdown scorer odds. But the +100 odds that BetMGM and DraftKings are offering for him to have seven-plus catches is worthy of a four-star play, and is great value with the Over juiced as high as -114 at FanDuel.
Bills vs. Chiefs player props made 12/7/2023 at 6:22 a.m. ET
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