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Josh Allen of the Buffalo Bills runs the ball against Justin Reid of the Kansas City Chiefs as we share our best Chiefs vs. Bills prediction.
Josh Allen of the Buffalo Bills runs the ball against Justin Reid of the Kansas City Chiefs during the second half at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri. Photo by Jason Hanna/Getty Images via AFP.

The Buffalo Bills visit the Kansas City Chiefs in a critical Week 14 contest for both teams' postseason goals, and we take a look at our best Bills vs. Chiefs prediction based on the best NFL odds.

For years, the Buffalo Bills and the Kansas City Chiefs have been must-see TV when they meet on the football field. That remains the case in Week 14, even after a lull from both teams through the first three months of the 2023 season.

After losing three of their last six games, the Chiefs (8-4) can ill-afford another loss this week if they want to remain in the hunt for the AFC's No. 1 seed. The Bills (6-6) have already given up on that, and a loss Sunday could spell doom for their already tenuous playoff hopes.

To accompany our Bills vs. Chiefs NFL player props and Josh Allen vs. Patrick Mahomes player props, here is our best Bills vs. Chiefs prediction and our NFL picks (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Bills vs. Chiefs prediction

Josh Allen Over 32.5 rushing yards (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

All season long, these two teams have felt like sleeping giants who can't stop beating themselves with turnovers, penalties, drops, and other self-inflicted wounds. Because of that, I'm steering clear of the side and total, which have too wide a range of outcomes to comfortably bet into.

Instead, I'm backing Allen to take over on the ground in a game his team simply can't afford to lose.

Through the first 10 weeks, Allen was relatively judicious with his legs under offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey in order to preserve the QB's health. We've seen a different approach under interim coordinator Joe Brady, who has made a concerted effort to unleash the All-Pro quarterback.

We saw that come to fruition in a "must-win" spot last week against the Philadelphia Eagles. Allen set new season highs in designed runs (4) and scrambles (5), and he led the Bills in rushing yards (81) for just the third time all season.

In five career games against Kansas City, Allen is averaging 57.8 rushing yards on 5.9 yards per carry - both above his career averages - and he's cleared this prop total in four of those five games, totalling 32 rushing yards in the lone outlier.

The Chiefs' blitz-heavy defense is excellent at creating pressure, but it's struggled to bring opposing QBs to the ground. Kansas City will also be without two key members up the middle in linebacker Drue Tranquill (concussion) and Bryan Cook (ankle), who have already been ruled out for Sunday's contest.

With two weeks to prepare for another must-win game, expect Allen to attack the vacated areas of this defense and rely on his legs for a second straight week.

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Bills vs. Chiefs best odds

FanDuel (-114)

Over (-120)Over (-114)Over (-110)Over (-133)Over (-110)

There isn't a ton of variation on this prop across our best NFL betting sites, with four of our five best sportsbooks dealing this prop at 33.5. The lone outlier is FanDuel, which has the lowest total on the board with a tolerable -114 price.

If you'd rather buy at -110, the higher total at BetMGM or bet365 isn't going to make or break this bet, though I'd rather pocket the extra yard myself.

Bills vs. Chiefs odds

Bills vs. Chiefs odds analysis

The point spread for this game opened at Chiefs -2.5, but we've seen that line inch closer to Buffalo's favor as kickoff nears, with roughly 70% of the money backing the Bills in Week 14.

Meanwhile, the total opened at 47.5 but is dealing as high as 49 across our best sports betting apps. Injuries for both defenses could be playing a role there, though whenever Allen and Patrick Mahomes face off, the Over figures to be a popular bet.

Bills vs. Chiefs game info

  • When: Sunday, Dec. 10 at 4:25 p.m. ET
  • Where: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City
  • How to watch: CBS
  • Weather: 43 degrees, 15-mph wind, 0% precipitation

Bills vs. Chiefs prediction made Friday at 1:30 p.m. ET

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