Sunday afternoon's marquee matchup pits the Buffalo Bills against the Kansas City Chiefs in a key battle for postseason contention, and we have you covered with our best Josh Allen vs. Patrick Mahomes NFL player prop predictions based on the best NFL odds at our best sportsbooks.
Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen has emerged as one of the league's top passers, ranking near the pinnacle in various statistical categories. Impressively, he's tied for second in touchdown passes and sits sixth in passing yards, exemplifying his significant offensive impact.
Nonetheless, his performance is marred by ranking second in interceptions (13), with a concerning trend of throwing at least one interception in eight consecutive games, signaling an area of vulnerability amidst an otherwise stellar display.
Meanwhile, Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes has encountered a recent decline in passing yards, with three of his last four games totaling 210 yards or less. However, he's maintained a respectable touchdown-to-interception ratio of seven touchdowns to two interceptions.
To accompany our Bills vs. Chiefs prediction and Bills vs. Chiefs player props, here are our best Josh Allen vs. Patrick Mahomes NFL player props (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Josh Allen vs. Patrick Mahomes NFL player prop predictions
- Josh Allen Over 36.5 pass attempts (+100 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
- Patrick Mahomes Under 270.5 passing yards (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Josh Allen Over 0.5 interceptions (-145 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
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Josh Allen vs. Patrick Mahomes player props
Josh Allen Over 36.5 pass attempts (+100 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
Allen attempted 51 passes in the Bills’ 37-34 overtime loss to the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 12 before their Week 13 bye. Before that game, Allen had gone back-to-back weeks with fewer than 33 attempts. However, against the Chiefs and Mahomes, Allen will be throwing plenty.
This season, Allen has attempted at least 37 passes seven times. In three of the five games he didn’t attempt that many passes, the Bills won by more than 20 points. While the Bills could undoubtedly beat the Chiefs, they’re underdogs and unlikely to do so handily. In games that the Bills have lost, Allen has attempted at least 38 passes all but once.
This prop's price is between +100 and -105 at four of our best sports betting apps. FanDuel is the only one of our best sportsbooks offering a different total than 36.5. They have the total posted at 35.5, but they're asking -130 for the Over. That's far too expensive for one attempt fewer.
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Patrick Mahomes Under 270.5 passing yards (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Mahomes and the Chiefs offense have serious problems heading into the season's final five weeks. They’re averaging just 19.4 points per game over their last five, and Mahomes has thrown for more than 250 yards just once during that span.
This number seems reasonable because of what Mahomes and Allen have done against each other in the past. But when you look at what’s happened this season, there is no reason to expect Mahomes to come anywhere near this total. In addition to his struggles, the Bills have the eighth-best pass defense in the league. They’re allowing just 203.3 passing yards per game and 154.3 over their last three.
Four of our best sports betting sites have this prop listed at 270.5. Of those four, bet365 is offering the best price. FanDuel has this total listed at 26.1, and they’re asking -114 for the Under. While FanDuel is a sportsbook to avoid for this prop, it’s also an indicator of where this line is likely to move before Sunday.
Josh Allen Over 0.5 interceptions (-145 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
This prop is one you must check every week. Allen has thrown at least one interception in 10 of his 12 games this season and eight in a row. To be able to get this prop for less than -200 at this point is a gift.
As good as the Chiefs’ pass defense has been this season, they’re averaging just 0.5 interceptions per game. That’s tied for the third-worst mark in the league. However, when Allen comes to town, all previous difficulties go out the window, as he makes numerous errant throws per game.
Josh Allen vs. Patrick Mahomes player prop picks made Friday at 9:01 a.m. ET.
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