Bengals vs. Browns Week 18 Picks: Depth Chart Shuffle Causes Huge Line Swing

The Cincinnati Bengals and Cleveland Browns will wrap up their regular-season schedules with an all-AFC North battle in Week 18. We break it down with our top Bengals-Browns picks.

The Bengals still have a shot at the AFC’s top playoff seed at 10-6; however, they’ve chosen to rest QB Joe Burrow ahead of the postseason after they clinched the division crown last week. Running back Joe Mixon will also sit out Week 18 after testing positive for COVID-19 this week.

On the other side, the Browns placed QB Baker Mayfield on injured reserve to end the season as he recovers from a variety of injuries. Cleveland goes for the season sweep of Cincinnati after a 41-16 road win in Week 9.

The depth chart turnover on both sides caused a dramatic swing in the odds.

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Here are my NFL picks and predictions for the Week 18 matchup between the Bengals and Browns (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook and FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a one-to-five-star scale).

Bengals vs. Browns Week 18 Game Info

Date/Time: Sunday, Dec. 9, 1 p.m. ETTV: FOXLocation: FirstEnergy Stadium, Cleveland, OHWeather: 41 degrees, 50% chance of precipitation, 18 mph winds

Bengals vs. Browns Odds Analysis

The public and sharps have differed on this line since it opened at Browns -3 on Sunday night. The game lost all meaning for Cleveland before its Monday night loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers. Then Mayfield was placed on IR to swing the odds to Bengals -3 through Wednesday morning. Burrow and Mixon being ruled out quickly pushed the line back the other way and to Browns -6 at most legal sportsbooks.

The total has plummeted from an opener of 44 down to 38. Be sure to shop around for the best odds in this projected low-scoring battle of backups. Over bettors can find their best number at FanDuel.

As of Thursday afternoon, the sharps like the Browns -6 and the Under 38, with 58% and 59% of the cash on those sides, respectively. Fifty-two percent of the bets are on the Bengals +6.

Bengals vs. Browns Picks

Browns -6 (-105 via DraftKings) ????Over 38 (-106 via FanDuel) ?????

SEE ALSO: Top 3 NFL Underdog Picks of Week 18

Bengals vs. Browns Predictions

Browns -6 (-105)

Let’s keep this simple and follow the money.

The public has a very slight lean to the Bengals with 52% of tickets on the visitors but 58% of the cash is on the hosts. The line movement is to be expected with a Comeback Player of the Year candidate — if not MVP candidate — in Burrow, sitting out, and Mixon joining him on the sideline. How much will the Bengals' other star offensive players play, and how motivated will the defense be to shoulder the load?

Meanwhile, the Browns turn from the injured Mayfield to backup Case Keenum once again. Keenum last started in Week 7 with Mayfield out. The veteran completed 21 of 33 passes for 199 yards and a touchdown in a 17-14 Thursday Night Football win over the Denver Broncos. Cleveland also came up just shy of a victory with third-stringer Nick Mullens at the helm of the offense in a 16-14 last-second loss to the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 15. Don’t overestimate the absence of Mayfield.

Browns running back Nick Chubb should be expected to handle the bulk of the work, despite dealing with injuries of his own. The defense is also near its healthiest of the season. The playoff-bound Bengals have a middling rush defense with 4.2 yards allowed per carry and 14 touchdowns given up on the season. Chubb ran for 137 yards and two scores in the season’s first meeting.

A bet on Cleveland is made safer by a bet against Bengals backup QB Brandon Allen. He has completed just 56.7% of his 231 career passes for nine touchdowns and six interceptions. Cincinnati lost by double digits in three of Allen’s five starts last season.

Over 38 (-106)

We’re seeing lowered totals around the league this week with many star players resting for the playoffs, though this is the second-lowest number on the board. The public and sharps are aligned in backing the Under but with a slightly higher percentage of the tickets than the money.

We’ll be counting on the chance of defensive scores with this contrarian play. The Bengals and Browns each have 19 takeaways on the season with 21 and 20 giveaways, respectively.

Allen tossed two interceptions in his Week 17 start against the Baltimore Ravens last season. He’ll benefit from a superior receiving corps this time out but the miscues shouldn’t be expected to fully disappear.

Keenum and other Browns skill-position players will be auditioning for larger roles in Cleveland or elsewhere in 2022.

SEE ALSO: All picks and odds. Be sure to check out SportsbookReview.com’s community forums and betting tools.

Bengals-Browns picks made 1/6/2022 at 3:30 p.m. ET.