Nevada vs. Dayton Prediction & March Madness Odds: Holmes Set For Huge Game
The No. 10 Nevada Wolf Pack and No. 7 Dayton Flyers are on a Thursday opening-round collision course in the first round of the March Madness, and we have you covered with our top Nevada vs. Dayton prediction based on the best March Madness odds.
The Dayton Flyers have not secured a victory against any March Madness team this season. In contrast, the No. 10 Nevada Wolf Pack boast a 6-6 record in Quad 1 matchups, although only one of those wins occurred outside the Mountain West Conference.
Jarod Lucas, the leading scorer for the Wolf Pack, averages 17.8 points per game. Meanwhile, DaRon Holmes II leads the Flyers with an average of 20.4 points per game, placing him 30th in the nation.
As part of our March Madness predictions, here is our best Nevada vs. Dayton prediction and college basketball picks (odds via our best March Madness betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Nevada vs. Dayton odds
Nevada (10) vs. Dayton (7) prediction: West Region
DaRon Holmes II Over 28.5 points + rebounds ⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -106 via FanDuel
Neither of these teams is very good at rebounding, as both rank 180th or worse in the nation in rebounds per game. That lack of dominance by either side favors DaRon Holmes in this matchup.
Holmes averages 8.4 rebounds per game. The Wolf Pack's leader is Nick Davidson, who averages just 7.3. Holmes has such an advantage on the boards that FanDuel has his total listed at 9.5, and they have the Over trading at -130.
There isn’t much value in that prop, but the price for Holmes to rebound and score is quite favorable. Holmes averages 8.4 more points per game than the next leading scorer on the Flyers. He’s the go-to guy, and he’s had four 20-point games in a row.
The Wolf Pack defense may try to shut down Holmes, but it’s more likely they allow Holmes to do his work inside, while they shut down the rest of the Flyers’ offense. If that’s the case, 20 points and 10 rebounds for the fifth time in six games seems very likely for Holmes.
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Nevada vs. Dayton best odds
FanDuel (-106)
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Over 28.5 points + rebounds | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| N/A | -106 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
The -106 line is a very good price for this number, so getting in on this Over now isn’t the worst idea. However, because everyone is picking the Wolf Pack, there is a chance that people also bet the under for Holmes, which could result in this number dropping or the price getting even more favorable. You can get the best price possible by using our FanDuel promo code.
If you’re inclined to wait and the number goes up or opens higher at our other best sportsbooks, we’d take this up to 30.5, but we wouldn’t take it there for a price worse than -105.
Nevada vs. Dayton spread & Over/Under analysis
Despite being the lower seed, the Wolf Pack are favored in this game. At the moment, 58% of bettors are backing the Wolf Pack to cover against the spread, so there is a good chance that this spread rises to a full basket or behind before tip-off.
The total opened at 136.5, and though it hasn’t moved yet, it’s likely to rise before tip-off as 77% of bettors back the Over in early betting. These are two of the most efficient offensive teams in the country, and though the defenses have been good this year, this feels like a time for the offenses to shine.
Nevada vs. Dayton game info
- When: Thursday, March 21st
- Tip-off: 4:30 p.m. ET
- Where: Delta Center, Salt Lake City, Utah
- How to watch: TBS
Nevada vs. Dayton prediction made Monday at 12:52 p.m. ET.
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