March Madness Sweet 16 Cinderella Watch: Which Underdogs Should You Bet to Advance?
March Madness fans aren't spoiled for choice when it comes to Sweet 16 Cinderellas this season. The Arkansas Razorbacks, the 10-seed in the West Region, were the last double-digit seed dancing before being eliminated by Texas Tech. This means we must turn to the betting market to identify underdogs.
Our March Madness Sweet 16 Cinderella watch identifies an underdog capable of pulling off an upset victory today and continuing its deep tournament run.
Michigan has the longest odds of winning the NCAA Tournament at our best sports betting sites. Purdue and the Wolverines are the biggest underdogs remaining in the Sweet 16, and we're fading teams in favor of a side in a better position to succeed.
🔢 Who are the Sweet 16 underdogs?
The latest odds via FanDuel as of Friday, March 28. Underdogs in bold.
- No. 6 seed Ole Miss vs. No. 3 seed Michigan State (-3.5)
- No. 3 seed Kentucky vs. No. 2 seed Tennessee (-4.5)
- No. 5 seed Michigan vs. No. 1 seed Auburn (-8.5)
- No. 4 seed Purdue vs. No. 1 seed Houston (-8.5)
👉 Check out the full March Madness Sweet 16 schedule complete with odds
😼 Can Kentucky make a deep NCAA Tournament run?
The [Wild]cat's out of the bag, Kentucky is our favorite underdog to advance past the Sweet 16.
It feels weird referring to a 3-seed as a Cinderella. But in a year that's been as chalky as this one, it's safe to say the Wildcats have been underestimated a bit. They are 4.5-point underdogs against Tennessee, marking the second consecutive week they will head into a win-or-go-home game being underestimated.
Kentucky managed to keep a hot Illinois team at bay by playing a clean, efficient style of basketball. Mark Pope's squad had just five turnovers all night and shot 47.1% from the field. It's these traits - along with their experience from SEC play this season - that make them dangerous, especially at full strength.
Lamont Butler's return has helped the Wildcats maximize efficiency at both ends of the floor. His massive 14-point, five-assist, two-steal game proved to be a difference down the stretch against Illinois as the senior's experience brought a calming presence to the game. It's no coincidence Kentucky struggled without him.
One thing the Wildcats have done extremely well this season is stump the Volunteers' defense. KenPom's adjusted efficiency rankings list Tennessee as the No. 3 unit in the country, but Kentucky has shot 50% from the field in both head-to-head matchups, resulting in a winning margin of +16.
The Volunteers' inability to figure out ways to stymie the Wildcats' offense is one of the biggest reasons we believe the latter will advance to the Elite Eight. There's also a distrust in Rick Barnes, who has historically flopped in March, as we outlined in our five biggest bracket mistakes.
Overall, this is a great spot for Kentucky. The Wildcats are playing arguably their best basketball at the right time, and they match up well with a Tennessee team they've beaten twice already this season. The Volunteers' form justifies this betting line, but it's a little too lopsided in our opinion, so the value lies with the 3-seed.
🐶 Which other underdogs are worth a flier?
The 5-seed Michigan Wolverines and 6-seed Ole Miss Rebels are also ones to watch.
Michigan is an 8.5-point underdog against the NCAA Tournament's top-seeded Auburn Tigers. While neither looked particularly sharp throughout the opening weekend, the latter's ability to stay in games late could cause issues for Bruce Pearl's team.
Dusty May has shown he knows how to coach in tournament settings, and two seven-footers can cause issues for any college team. Auburn isn't playing its best basketball, and as its fellow SEC foe found out in the second round, Michigan is a dangerous team to let hang around for too long.
We're putting one Michigan team on underdog watch, but the other is on upset alert.
Similar to Auburn, 2-seed Michigan State hasn't exactly impressed thus far. The Spartans haven't shot well, and against a physical SEC opponent, a lack of scoring can translate to a dire situation quickly - isn't that right, St. John's?
Ole Miss has shown its quality early in the tournament in wins over North Carolina and Iowa State. Chris Beard's team only continues to show why it's under-seeded as a No. 6. The Rebels also can run away with a game if they're shooting well from beyond the arc, something Tom Izzo's group cannot do.
📊 March Madness odds this week
Here are the live March Madness odds for the final 12 teams. The odds update in real time from our best March Madness betting sites.
🧠 Sweet 16 expert picks
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- One of these 8 teams will win the NCAA Tournament
🆚 Sweet 16 game predictions
- Michigan State vs. Ole Miss prediction
- Tennessee vs. Kentucky prediction
- Auburn vs. Michigan prediction
- Houston vs. Purdue prediction
💰 March Madness betting odds pages
👑 Best March Madness betting sites
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