March Madness Bracket Upset Picks: Bold Predictions for NCAA Tournament 1st Round & Final Four

College basketball fans have spent countless hours since Selection Sunday mulling over their March Madness brackets, and the day those brackets are put into action is finally here.

Trying to identify the early upsets is tricky, but locking in bold predictions ahead of your bracket pool submission might be even more difficult.

Our March Madness bracket upset picks give fans a good jumping-off place and even dive into the truly delusional scenarios for the NCAA Tournament, which gets underway today. We'll supply you with a plethora of bold predictions and also include the best betting odds for those spirited selections.

👉 Need help with your bracket? Check out our March Madness expert bracket and our guide on how to fill out a March Madness bracket.

🏀 Best March Madness bracket upset picks

We've identified five of our favorite bold predictions for March Madness. These inclusions span from first-round upset specials to Final Four fantasy plays, encompassing everything in between. All odds are via our best sports betting sites.

👉 Want AI-driven bracket insights? Check out our full March Madness AI bracket predictions with score predictions for every game.  

🐶 UConn loses in the first round to Oklahoma

There's just no way Dan Hurley and the two-time defending national champions get bounced in the first round, right? Wrong. While Connecticut is a 5.5-point betting favorite over Oklahoma, the Huskies are on upset alert early in the tournament.

This is a nightmare matchup for UConn. The Huskies' biggest weakness is their 257th-rated perimeter defense, and they match up against a team with the 35th-best shooting percentage (37%) in the country.

The Sooners' 20-13 record is deceiving as they played in college basketball's deepest and strongest conference this season. Quality wins over Arizona, Louisville, Michigan, and Missouri show that Oklahoma is capable of playing high-level basketball.

It wouldn't be a surprise in the slightest to see UConn bounced early.

📊 Best bet: Oklahoma moneyline (+175 via Caesars)

🤠 McNeese to the Sweet 16

See Brenden Schaeffer's Clemson vs. McNeese prediction.

McNeese was America's upset pick of the opening round last season. A poor first-half shooting performance put it in a hole too deep to climb out of against Gonzaga, as it was bounced in the first round. The one-and-done outing was the first and only impression much of America got of the Cowboys.

However, the Will Wade brigade is back in the Big Dance, this time with a vengeance.

McNeese gets another tough draw this time around in No. 5 seed Clemson. The Tigers are fresh off a second-place regular season finish in the ACC. They returned several players from their Elite Eight run last season, namely Chase Hunter, Ian Schieffelin, and Chauncey Wiggins.

However, Clemson will be without an underrated contributor, guard Dillon Hunter, in the NCAA Tournament. Hunter's absence could prove to be difficult against a deep Cowboys team. McNeese gives double-digit minutes to 11 players, eight of whom are averaging seven or more points per game.

Wade's men do the little things right: they play defense, shoot well from the charity stripe, and take care of the basketball. The factors that made last year's Cowboys a popular pick make them a contender again this year, they've just added a ton of experience.

If McNeese manages to get by Clemson, it'll likely match up with a Purdue team that's somewhat similar stylistically, but the Boilermakers have lost six of their last nine games. Compare that to the Cowboys - who have one loss since mid-December - and it's easy to see a path to the Sweet 16 for the so-called Bayou Bandits.

A double-digit seed has reached the Sweet 16 in each of the last 16 seasons, and 37 of 39 since 1985. McNeese is being overlooked after last season, but the Cowboys could make a Cinderella run.

📊 Best bet: McNeese to reach the Sweet 16 (+750 via BetMGM)

🐂 Texas to the Sweet 16

One of the First Four participants will likely find early success in the NCAA Tournament, but which will it be? Our money is on the Texas Longhorns, who have more Quad 1 wins than all of their other First Four contenders combined.

Programs that advance from the quasi-play-in games into March Madness proper typically find success early on. The First Four was officially introduced in 2011, and at least one winner has won a first-round game in every tournament except for 2019. Furthermore, five First Four winners have reached the Sweet 16.

Texas is the most experienced and battle-tested team in the First Four field. The Longhorns will also arguably get the most favorable 6 vs. 11-seed matchup should it advance to the opening round (Illinois). The Fighting Illini have lost four of their last eight games, epitomizing their inconsistent season to date.

If Rodney Terry's team gets by Illinois, 3-seed Kentucky will presumably be waiting in the second round. Texas has already defeated the Wildcats once this season (82-78 on Feb. 15). We believe the Longhorns have a much better chance at reaching this stage than their 6.67% implied probability suggests.

📊 Best bet: Texas to reach the Sweet 16 (+1400 via BetMGM)

🔢 Gonzaga to the Final Four

See Brenden Schaeffer's Gonzaga vs. Georgia prediction.

Gonzaga to the Final Four? It might not be as far-fetched as it initially sounds.

The Bulldogs are 6.5-point betting favorites in their first-round game against Georgia. The SEC's Bulldogs haven't looked like the same team away from home, which is probably why a majority of the money at our best sports betting apps is on the WCC Tournament champions.

The elephant in the room is No. 1 seed Houston waiting in the wing.

Gonzaga matches up against the Cougars better than most, with the Bulldogs possessing the pace (40th nationally in possessions per game) to get Houston out of its comfort zone. Both teams possess elite offensive and defensive units, as evidenced by their No. 3 and No. 9 net ratings with KenPom.

Gonzaga has the tournament experience necessary to combat the Cougars. The Bulldogs' top six leaders in minutes per game are all seniors, and head coach Mark Few knows a thing or two about winning in March. Few has made nine consecutive Sweet 16 appearances, after all.

Gonzaga has a tough draw early, but it's incredibly under-seeded. Its relatively short odds to go on a run, advance from the Midwest Region, and make the Final Four (+900) confirm this theory.

📊 Best bet: Gonzaga to reach the Final Four (+900 via BetMGM)

4️⃣ Michigan State to the Final Four

We'll let you in on a little secret: Bruce Pearl struggles in March. He's 17-13 all-time in the NCAA Tournament, which is why we believe backing Auburn is one of the five biggest mistakes one can make when filling out their March Madness bracket predictions.

Someone is going to come out of the South Region, and if not Auburn, who?

Michigan State has been a buzzsaw this season in the Big Ten. The Spartans flew under the radar for much of the season because of their inability to shoot the 3-ball, but their fifth-rated defense more than makes up for the holes in their offensive game.

Tom Izzo is quietly putting together one of the more impressive seasons of his Hall of Fame career, as well, and we all know how much coaching experience matters in March.

The biggest threat Michigan State faces in the NCAA Tournament is a lethal 3-point shooting team. Luckily for the Spartans, it appears they avoid efficient beyond-the-arc shooters in their pod. We're backing Izzo's excellent defensive squad to steamroll the competition in the South Region to reach the Final Four.

📊 Best bet: Michigan State to reach the Final Four (+500 via DraftKings)

🏀 March Madness expert predictions

• March Madness South Region preview
• March Madness East Region preview
• March Madness West Region preview
• March Madness Midwest Region preview
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• How to predict March Madness upsets
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🔮 March Madness bracket picks & tips

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💰 March Madness betting odds pages

👑 Best March Madness betting sites

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