March Madness Upsets: Best No. 12 vs. No. 5 Picks for Your NCAA Tournament Bracket
The 5-seed vs. 12-seed matchup has produced some of March Madness' most iconic upsets. Those pesky No. 12 seeds have upset their first-round counterparts 55 times under the current NCAA Tournament format (since 1985), including at least one win in 33 of 39 years.
With No. 12 seeds winning better than a 35.3% clip, here's a look at the best March Madness upsets and our predictions for each No. 5 vs. No. 12 matchup in this year's March Madness bracket.
🏀 Best 12 vs. 5 March Madness upset picks
1️⃣ No. 12 Colorado State vs. No. 5 Memphis
The committee made several stunning decisions on Selection Sunday - eh, North Carolina? However, the most surprising was seeing how highly that group valued Penny Hardaway's Memphis squad. The Tigers were projected to be an 8-seed in Joe Lunardi's Bracketology, but the bracket reveal listed them as a 5-seed.
Memphis steamrolled its competition this season en route to a 29-5 overall record (16-2 in conference play). The Tigers boast the nation's third-leading scorer in PJ Haggerty and great complementary pieces in Dain Dainja and Tyrese Hunter. The issue they could run into is Hunter's leg injury, which kept him out of the AAC tournament title.
If Hunter can't go, Memphis could be in serious trouble against an in-form Colorado State squad.
The Rams come into the NCAA Tournament as winners of their last 10 games. Their balanced style of play (43 in ORtg, 49 in DRtg with KenPom) makes them an incredibly tricky opponent, especially with Nique Clifford running the show.
All signs point to Hunter missing the Round of 64 matchup. As such, we're siding with the red-hot Rams to pull off the first-round "upset" - which isn't much of an upset according to our best sports betting sites.
🔮 Prediction: Colorado State -2.5 (-104 via FanDuel)
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2️⃣ No. 12 McNeese vs. No. 5 Clemson
Will Wade's McNeese squad is dancing for a second straight season. The Cowboys were given a tough draw last year with Gonzaga, and things don't get much easier this time around.
Clemson has won a school-record 27 games on the back of an Elite Eight run last season. The Tigers are one of the few teams to earn a win over Duke this season, in addition to an impressive victory over Kentucky. Chase Hunter and Jaeden Zackery make up one of the nation's most feared backcourts, as evidenced by Clemson's top-20 rated defense in DRtg.
Stylistically, these two hard-nosed, defensive basketball teams look to capitalize on each other's mistakes. The Cowboys and Tigers give up just 64 and 65.7 points per game, respectively, which are both top-25 marks nationwide.
The difference could be some of the key statistics McNeese leads in. The Cowboys are among the nation's best in points off turnovers. They also spread the ball around, with seven players contributing between 7 and 13 points per game. Wade also returns a vastly more experienced group than last year.
McNeese's +275 moneyline odds imply a 26.67% that the Cowboys can pull off the upset. Our second-place ranking gives them better odds of winning outright, though our favorite bet is on the point spread with the No. 12 seed catching 7.5 points in the first round.
🔮 Prediction: McNeese +7.5 (-105 via FanDuel)
3️⃣ No. 12 UC San Diego vs. No. 5 Michigan
While Michigan is the most-bet team to cover in the first round of the NCAA Tournament, it feels contrarian to pick the Wolverines to win. Online discourse has centered around UC San Diego as the worst possible matchup for Dusty May's men, and not without reason.
The Tritons - playing their first year in D-I - finished as the nation's No. 1 team in turnover margin (+7.2). As such, they lead the nation in points off turnovers, an area Michigan struggles in. The Wolverines are 334th of 335 teams in turnovers per game, so this could be a match made in hell if they carelessly come out of the gate.
A reason to like Michigan in this matchup is because the Wolervines run a relatively efficient offense. Turnovers aside, the Wolverines are among the nationwide leaders in field-goal percentage due to their impactful pick-and-roll game with two seven-footers. Vladislav Goldin and Danny Wolf are nearly impossible to defend, especially when they take care of the basketball.
Another reason to favor the Big Ten tournament champions in this first-round battle is their experience. UC San Diego is a wildly impressive 30-4, but as I laid out in my March Madness bracket advice, win-loss records rarely tell the whole story. The Tritons' best win is a two-point victory over Utah State, and it hasn't faced a single power conference team since making the jump to D-I.
For all of these reasons, Michigan should win this highly-anticipated showdown. UCSD is the nation's best ATS team, though, at 25-7. Therefore, we recommend playing it safe and betting the moneyline at slightly shorter odds.
🔮 Prediction: Michigan ML (-145 at ESPN BET)
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4️⃣ No. 12 Liberty vs. No. 5 Oregon
A lot has been made about this matchup after Liberty finished the regular season with a 28-6 record. The Flames have won 11 of their last 12 games, including six double-digit victories in that span.
The lore surrounding Liberty is better than the team is, though. Ritchie McKay's men are touted as an offensive juggernaut, but their inconsistency makes them extremely volatile. The Flames are too reliant on 3-pointers, as evidenced by their 80th adjusted offensive efficiency rating and 128th-ranked scoring offense.
All it takes is a solid defensive effort to fluster the Flames; enter KenPom's No. 31-rated defense from Eugene, Ore.
Oregon comes into the big dance as one of the most balanced teams in the field. The Ducks defend the perimeter well to complement an elite rim-protector in Nate Bittle. The Big Ten contenders also boast plenty of experience, with wins over Maryland, Texas A&M, and Wisconsin standing out on their CV.
It wouldn't be wise to count out Dana Altman in March at the end of the day. Oregon should dominate this matchup, especially if it can successfully contest Liberty's onslaught of 3-point shots.
🔮 Prediction: Oregon -6.5 (-110 via ESPN BET)
🗓️ NCAA Tournament schedule and odds
Odds via FanDuel as of Monday, March 17.
- No. 12 seed McNeese vs. No. 5 seed Clemson (-7.5) on Thursday, March 20 at 3:15 p.m. ET (truTV)
- No. 12 seed UC San Diego vs. No. 5 seed Michigan (-2.5) on Thursday, March 20 at 10 p.m. ET (TBS)
- No. 12 seed Colorado State (-2.5) vs. No. 5 seed Memphis on Friday, March 21 at 2 p.m. ET (TBS)
- No. 12 seed Liberty vs. No. 5 seed Oregon (-6.5) on Friday, March 21 at 10:10 p.m. ET (truTV)
🔮 March Madness predictions for every game today
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- Clemson vs. McNeese prediction
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💰 March Madness betting odds pages
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