5 Biggest Mistakes When Filling Out Your March Madness Bracket for the NCAA Tournament

The NCAA Tournament is the single-most unpredictable event on the sports calendar. The volume of games (63, excluding the First Four) only adds to the volatility of college basketball's premier competition. However, there is a method to the March Madness, which gets underway in earnest today.

Our five biggest March Madness bracket mistakes identify common errors individuals make when completing brackets. Avoiding these miscalculations could help improve your final position in bracket pools.

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📝 Five biggest March Madness bracket mistakes to avoid

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📊 Ignoring analytics

Early-round upsets are what make March Madness unique. The frequency and storylines of these surprise victories make every matchup must-see TV. However, a common mistake many people make is over-analyzing first round matchups - the least valuable in a bracket challenge.

Before determining how many upsets to predict early on, let's take a peek at how often these upsets happen:

• No. 11 over No. 6: 39.1%
• No. 12 over No. 5: 35.26%
• No. 13 over No. 4: 21.15%
• No. 14 over No. 3: 14.74%
• No. 15 over No. 2: 7.05%
• No. 16 over No. 1: 1.28%

Unsurprisingly, the most common upsets occur when teams are more evenly-matched based on seeding. The 11 vs. 6 and 12 vs. 5 matchups see underdogs win much more frequently than 16 vs. 1 and 15 vs. 2.

Aim to pencil at least one No. 11 and No. 12 seed into the second round. The latter has picked up at least one victory in 33 of the last 39 tournaments, so don't ignore these key stats when making your selections. Seeing as the aforementioned seeds win at frequencies over 30%, you can get away with picking as many as two to upset their opponents.

Take a more conservative approach as it relates to 13-16 seeds. Research each matchup and pick a couple contests you feel will be closer than the odds suggest. Don't get greedy, though, as the numbers tell us these upsets are far more infrequent than others we discussed.

Ignoring these key analytics can lead to brackets with too many or too few upsets. Mulling over these matchups can also take away from time that should be spent on later rounds of the NCAA Tournament, so stick to the stats.

🔢 Not picking a 1-seed to win

You want to be different, I get it. It's human nature to want to zig when others zag when choosing the winner of competitions like the NCAA Tournament. However, history tells us picking one of the March Madness top seeds to win is the most profitable strategy, even though it feels chalky.

No. 1 seeds have won 25 of the past 39 national championships, including 13 of the last 17 title winners.

You don't need advanced analytics or percentages to tell you that 1-seeds win at a higher clip than anyone else. Therefore, not picking one of the four top national seeds to win the NCAA Tournament is one of the biggest blunders one can make.

This year, the four No. 1 seeds are Auburn, Duke, Houston, and Florida.

⛰️ Trusting the Mountain West

Once again, the Mountain West has multiple teams in the 68-team March Madness field. San Diego State's 2023 national title run will give people fond memories of the conference in the NCAA Tournament. However, that was a mere outlier in the Mountain West's otherwise mediocre history in March.

The conference has an abysmal 13-26 record in the NCAA Tournament since its latest additions (San Jose State, Utah State) gave the Mountain West a makeover in 2013. Only four teams (2018 Nevada, 2023 San Diego State, 2024 San Diego State, and 2024 Utah State) have won in the Big Dance since 2016.

All 11 of the conference's current 11 members are .500 or below in the NCAA Tournament since the Mountain West's founding in 1998. The Aztecs (13-13) are the Mountain West's most successful school in that span by a country mile, with UNLV (3-7) in second by 10 wins.

All this is to say: trusting a Mountain West team in March is playing with fire. It's much easier to avoid making mistakes with your bracket and fade this group given recent history.

This year, four Mountain West teams are included in the NCAA Tournament: 12-seed Colorado State, 10-seed New Mexico, 11-seed San Diego State (First Four), and 10-seed Utah State. Here are their first-round pairings with odds:

• No. 11 San Diego State vs. No. 11 North Carolina (-4.5) in the First Four
• No. 10 Utah State vs. UCLA (-5.5)
• No. 12 Colorado State (-1.5) vs. no. 5 Memphis
• No. 10 New Mexico vs. No. 7 Marquette (-3.5)

Three of the four Mountain West representatives are betting underdogs in their opening games. The lone favorite, Colorado State, is a popular underdog pick as it faces off against a banged-up, overseeded Memphis squad in the first round. 

🍊 Betting on Rick Barnes

Experience matters in March, especially as it relates to the coaches standing courtside. There are individuals we will not bet against in this tournament - such as Michigan State's Tom Izzo and St. John's' Rick Pitino - but Tennessee's Rick Barnes is not afforded that luxury.

Barnes is historically a fantastic coach. He possesses a record of 832-421 (.644) across 38 years of coaching with George Mason, Providence, Clemson, Texas, and Tennessee. However, his form has fallen off a cliff during 28 NCAA Tournament appearances, where he is 30-28 all-time.

Despite coaching some of the best college players and teams in recent memory, Barnes has failed to win the big one. His teams have only reached the Final Four once and have lost on the first weekend as a single-digit seed an astonishing 14 times.

While Tennessee fits the KenPom criteria for a national champion - No. 18 in ORtg and No. 3 in DRtg - history says to steer clear of picking the Volunteers to make a deep run. Backing Barnes to win under the bright lights of March will only come back to bite you.

Tennessee's path isn't easy as one of the highest-rated two seeds. The Volunteers would have to win a Midwest Region containing Clemson, Gonzaga, Houston, Kentucky, and Purdue to reach the final weekend of the tournament.

🐯 Backing Bruce Pearl and Auburn

Similar to Barnes, Bruce Pearl has a history of folding under the bright lights. The 64-year-old has a career record of 17-13 in the NCAA Tournament with Milwaukee, Tennessee, and Auburn. This is far inferior to his regular season record of 473-223 (.680) across 21 seasons as a head coach.

Auburn's history is similarly underwhelming. The Tigers have never played in a national championship game, let alone won a title. They've fallen short in nearly every season with Pearl at the helm, only achieving relative success in 2019 when they reached the Final Four.

Despite being one of the most experienced teams in the country, Auburn was disappointing to end the season. The Tigers lost three of their last four games and struggled in the lone win over Ole Miss. Unfortunately, this isn't a stat that bodes well for teams historically.

All of this is to say Auburn has crumbled in March more often than not under its current manager. The Tigers have been eliminated in the first weekend in four of Pearl's five tournaments on The Plains, despite being at a top-four regional seed in three of those instances.

They played well this season, but at the end of the day, backing them is a mistake.

This is especially true after getting a peek at Auburn's region. The South Region is loaded with juggernauts such as Creighton, Iowa State, Louisville, Michigan, Michigan State, Ole Miss, and Texas A&M.

🏀 March Madness expert predictions

• March Madness South Region preview
• March Madness East Region preview
• March Madness West Region preview
• March Madness Midwest Region preview
• March Madness Final Four expert picks
• March Madness upset predictions
• Ranking March Madness 12 vs. 5 seed upsets
• How to predict March Madness upsets
• What are the most common March Madness upsets?
• What are the biggest March Madness upsets of all time?
• Who are the best March Madness Cinderellas of all time?

🔮 March Madness bracket picks & tips

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• March Madness media expert picks
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• Free printable March Madness bracket PDF
• March Madness bracket predictions
• How to fill out a March Madness bracket
• March Madness bracket advice
• March Madness bracket tips for beginners
• March Madness bracket trends
• Printable Women's March Madness bracket

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