French Open Best Bets 2023: Top Picks, Predictions for Men & Women
Following Novak Djokovic's and Aryna Sabalenka's victories in the Australian Open, the second major of the tennis season gets underway at Roland Garros Sunday morning. Read on for our French Open best bets based on the odds from our best sports betting apps.
When Djokovic was asked recently if this was the most wide-open Roland Garros in recent years, his response was, "It depends if Rafael Nadal plays."
Nadal is 112-3 at Roland Garros, and his 14 French Open titles are the most by any male or female at any single major in tennis history. However, his withdrawal because of a hip injury means just two players in this year's men's field, Djokovic and Stan Wawrinka, have ever won at Roland Garros. The French Open odds became much more balanced as a result.
The French Open has long been wide open on the women's side, with eight winners in the last nine years. However, Iga Swiatek is the consensus 2023 women's French Open favorite as the only two-time winner from that group.
Here are our French Open best bets (odds via our best sports betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
French Open best bets
- Men’s winner: Novak Djokovic (+260 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Women’s winner: Iga Swiatek (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Men’s Quarter 3 winner: Holger Rune (+115 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Women’s Quarter 4 winner: Jelena Ostapenko (+390 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
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Men's French Open pick
Novak Djokovic (+260 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Not that Djokovic needs extra motivation, but his win at the Australian Open was his 22nd Grand Slam title, pulling him even with Rafael Nadal for the most all-time (and one behind Serena Williams for the most by any player in the Open Era). Moreover, the fact that Djokovic has won twice at Roland Garros (and made four other finals) in years when Nadal competed should not be understated, given that Nadal won four consecutive French Open titles three different times in his career.
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Djokovic had a disappointing appearance in Rome, losing in the quarterfinals in three sets to Holger Rune. That was his first loss in Rome to someone other than Nadal since the 2017 final against Alexander Zverev. However, Djokovic has repeatedly proven that beating him at a major in a five-set format is a different animal.
Djokovic has not lost a fifth set at a major since the 2019 French Open (to Dominic Thiem), and this is a four-star play, as he has lasted longer than pre-tournament favorite Carlos Alcaraz, at each of the last four tournaments both have appeared in. Therefore, on the short list of the two co-favorites, Djokovic is our choice to win at Roland Garros, and BetMGM is the only one of our best sports betting apps at which one can find him at longer than +240 odds.
Women's French Open pick
Iga Swiatek (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Given how wide open women's tennis has been, it is eye-opening to see any player without plus-money odds at the start of a tournament. The last player (man or woman) we saw as such a big favorite at a major was Djokovic at this year's Australian Open, which is understandable, considering this year's victory was his 10.
Last year, Iga Swiatek became the first woman to win two or more Grand Slams in the same year since Angelique Kerber did it in 2016. And Swiatek was not particularly challenged at Roland Garros last year, dropping just one set in seven matches and winning all but one set 6-3 or better.
This would be a five-star play if Swiatek did not withdraw from the Italian Open due to a thigh injury, but the world No. 1 downplayed its severity.
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The best value for this wager is at BetMGM, as PointsBet and FanDuel are slightly higher with their -135 pre-tournament odds. Given that FanDuel offers modest +410 odds for Swiatek to win the French Open without dropping a set, her short -110 odds are justified.
Men’s Quarter 3 winner
Holger Rune (+115 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Holger Rune made the quarterfinals in his first and only French Open appearance, and with Rafael Nadal out, he has the game to secure his first major title.
Rune became the first player since Nadal to record back-to-back wins over Djokovic and did so on different surfaces. And he has shown he can beat any of the game's best, as he became the sixth player this century to win six or more consecutive matches against top-five opponents, per OptaAce.
This is a four-star play, as he is 6-3 combined against the current top five. Though just one of those wins was in a best-of-five format (in last year's Round of 16 at Roland Garros against Stefanos Tsitsipas), the confidence he takes out of those matches is crucial.
Given that Rune is as low as +750 to win the French Open at FanDuel, his +115 odds to reach the semifinals are intriguing.
Women’s Quarter 4 winner
Jelena Ostapenko (+390 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
Jelena Ostapenko is being given a ton of respect at Roland Garros with the fifth-best pre-tournament odds at most sportsbooks. She is in the same quarter as Aryna Sabalenka, who inexcusably lost her opening-round match at the Italian Open to Sofia Kenin after beating Swiatek in Madrid in the previous tournament.
Ostapenko has not advanced past the third round at the French Open since winning it as a 20-year-old in 2017. At her last tournament (the Italian Open), Ostapenko beat Barbora Krejcikova (who has shorter pre-tournament odds at the French Open), Daria Kasatkina (a current top-10 player), and Paula Badosa (a top-10 player as recently as last year) in consecutive matches before losing to eventual champion Elena Rybakina.
This is a three-star play, as Ostapenko is 6-3 on clay this year but is 11-7 on all other surfaces. Ostapenko had leads of 3-0 and 4-2 in the second set of her last match against Rybakina before rain delays halted all of her momentum. Had Ostapenko won that match, her odds of reaching the semifinals would be a lot shorter.
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FanDuel is the only sportsbook with odds to win each quarter available, but bettors should be sure to shop for the best price, as some +400s or higher are likely available if those shops are higher on Sabalenka.
French Open best bets made 5/25/2023 at 9:35 p.m. ET.
Here are our best sports betting apps:
- FanDuel: $2,500 No Sweat First Bet | Read our FanDuel Review
- Caesars: Earn Up to a $1,250 Bet Credit | Read our Caesars Review
- DraftKings: Bet $5, Get $200 in Bonus Bets | Read our DraftKings Review
- PointsBet: Earn Five Second-Chance Bets Up to $50 Each | Read our PointsBet Review
- BetMGM: Get a Bonus Bet of Up to $1,000 | Read our BetMGM Review
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