College Football Best Bets: Week 10 ATS Picks & Player Props
The last month of the college football regular season begins with a loaded slate, as teams continue to jockey for College Football Playoff odds positioning and bowl eligibility.
- There are eight remaining unbeaten teams in college football, and two (Penn State and Pittsburgh) are underdogs this week
- This is the fourth time Michigan is a double-digit home underdog since 1990, but the first time against anyone other than Ohio State
- Underdogs in SEC play have covered the spread at a 70.3% clip, the best of any conference
Our college football best bets for Week 10 take on an undefeated team in league play, while also expecting a second straight poor performance from a Heisman candidate.
I went 3-1 with my four-pack of college football best bets last week and am back to continue that momentum this week as part of our college football Week 10 predictions.
Best college football bets for Week 10
College football odds as of Friday and subject to change. Track the college football scores for the latest line movement and matchup info.
- Cam Ward Under 2.5 passing touchdowns (-125 via bet365) vs. Miami ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Moliki Matavao anytime touchdown scorer (+400 via Caesars) vs. Nebraska ⭐⭐
- Michigan State +8 (-110 via Caesars) vs. Indiana ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- South Carolina ML (+118 via FanDuel) vs. Texas A&M ⭐⭐⭐
College football ATS picks
Michigan State +8 ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -110 via Caesars | Implied probability: 52.38%
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ESPN college football senior writer Pete Thamel reported that Indiana could have starting quarterback Kurtis Rourke back for this week’s game after he missed last week following surgery on his thumb.
However, not only am I jumping on this inflated line in case Rourke can't play, but I believe his ability to throw effectively would be compromised even if he is under center.
The public is sure to pound Indiana this week given that it is one of the eight remaining unbeatens and has covered the spread in seven consecutive games. The Hoosiers’ seven-game SU/ATS winning/cover streak is the longest in the country.
I prefer to be on the contrarian side, especially since Michigan State will be overlooked after losing a tough one-score game to “big brother” Michigan. The Spartans are 4-2 SU the last six times it has played as underdogs in the game following the matchup with the Wolverines.
Caesars is the only one of our best sports betting sites offering +8, as all others are at +7.5. Anything over a touchdown is a play for me on the Spartans this week.
South Carolina ML ⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: +118 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 45.87%
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Texas A&M is 5-0 in SEC play for the first time since joining the conference in 2012, and Mike Elko is one of four coaches in program history to win seven of his first eight games (the first since 1917).
All of that makes this a very curious line, with South Carolina being less than a field goal underdog.
Elko made a genius in-game coaching decision last week against LSU to replace the ineffective Connor Weigman with Marcel Reed after halftime. Reed led five straight scoring drives and became the first Aggies quarterback with three rushing touchdowns in a half since Johnny Manziel in 2012.
While LSU was likely caught off-guard by the in-game quarterback change, Frank Beamer’s South Carolina squad has had all week to prepare for both players.
The Gamecocks are off a bye after a 26-point road win at Oklahoma, their sixth-largest road win in an SEC game. South Carolina’s defense also recorded nine sacks by nine different players.
With this line being set at +2.5, the decision was either to take the moneyline or to pay up for the adjusted spread of +3.5. However, the best value is on the Gamecocks winning outright, and FanDuel is the only one of our best sports betting apps at which one can back the underdogs at better than +115 moneyline odds.
College football props
College football picks made Friday; odds subject to change. Our NEW college football player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!
Cam Ward Under 2.5 passing touchdowns ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -125 via bet365 | Implied probability: 55.56%
Miami quarterback Cam Ward fell from the top spot of the Heisman Trophy odds after his worst performance of the season last week. Ward completed a season-low 62.9% of his passes for 208 yards (his first game under 304 yards) and zero touchdowns (his first game without multiple touchdowns).
Duke head coach (and former Hurricanes head coach) Manny Diaz will love nothing more than to continue to spoil Ward’s Heisman campaign. The Blue Devils rank in the top 20 nationally and second in the ACC in scoring defense (18.6 points per game allowed).
Duke’s strength is its secondary, which entered last week against SMU ranked fourth in Pass Success, second in Havoc, and 11th in PFF Coverage grade. In addition, the defense as a whole was seventh in Finishing Drives, which lowers Ward’s touchdown ceiling considerably.
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Moliki Matavao anytime touchdown scorer ⭐⭐
Best odds: +400 via Caesars | Implied probability: 20.00%
If you are looking for an under-the-radar anytime touchdown scorer play, look no further than UCLA tight end Moliki Matavao, as the Bruins are likely on the verge of a big change in offensive philosophy.
UCLA went into its last game against Rutgers ranked 134th in Rush Success and 132 in Line Yards. So it did what any smart team would do and attempted a season-high 38 passes, with much success.
Bruins quarterback Ethan Garbers threw for 383 yards (90 more than his previous season high) and four touchdowns (he only had one other game prior to that with multiple passing touchdowns) in the upset win over Rutgers.
I expect a similar pass-happy attack from the Bruins when facing a Cornhuskers secondary that ranks outside the top 50 in EPA/Pass Allowed.
Matavao’s 251 receiving yards lead the team. The Bruins also have had seven different pass-catchers score touchdowns, and the team has nine passing touchdowns compared to three rushing touchdowns, so they prefer to pass in the red zone.
These are great odds for Matavao to score his first receiving touchdown. And given that his receiving yards and yards per reception average have increased for three consecutive weeks, this should be the week he finally finds the endzone.
The best value is at Caesars, as DraftKings is lower at +350 odds. With the +400 offering at Caesars, a $10 winning wager would net $40 in profits.
College football picks roundup: Week 10
- College football Week 10 ATS picks
- College football Week 10 upset picks
- College football Week 10 player props
- College football Week 10 expert picks
College football betting odds pages
Here are our best college football betting sites:
- Caesars Promo Code: SBRBONUSDYW | Read our Caesars Review
- BetMGM Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetMGM Review
- bet365 Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our bet365 Review
- FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
- DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
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- Best Sports Betting Sites | Best Sportsbook Promos (U.S. only)
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