College Football Week 10 Picks Against the Spread for Marquee Games
This week's slate would have looked a lot better a month ago, but our Week 10 picks against the spread focus on three teams making a push to play in major bowl games.
- After knocking off college football championship odds favorite Alabama, and playing Texas tough, Vanderbilt is poised to cover against Auburn
- Texas A&M can continue its climb up the College Football Playoff odds with a road win over South Carolina
- One of the top ACC Heisman Trophy odds contender, Pittsburgh QB Eli Holstein is dealing with an injury as he hopes to lead the Panthers against SMU
There are several high-profile games this week involving AP Top 25 programs, and our Week 10 college football predictions focus on the can't-miss action.
College football ATS picks Week 10: Marquee games
College football picks via DraftKings and subject to change; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.
Matchup | Pick | Confidence |
---|---|---|
San Diego State vs. Boise State | Boise State (-23.5) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
Ohio State vs. Penn State | Penn State (+4) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
Duke vs. Miami | Duke (+20) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
Ole Miss vs. Arkansas | Ole Miss (-6.5) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
Air Force vs. Army | Army (-23) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
Minnesota vs. Illinois | Illinois (+2) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
Memphis vs. UTSA | Memphis (-7) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
Vanderbilt vs. Auburn | Vanderbilt (+6.5) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
Oregon vs. Michigan | Oregon (-15.5) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
Florida vs. Georgia | Florida (+16) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
Texas Tech vs. Iowa State | Texas Tech (+14.5) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
Indiana vs. Michigan State | Indiana (-7) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
Kansas State vs. Houston | Kansas State (-13) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
Texas A&M vs. South Carolina | Texas A&M (-2.5) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
Louisville vs. Clemson | Louisville (+10.5) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
Wisconsin vs. Iowa | Iowa (-3.5) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
USC vs. Washington | USC (-3) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
Kentucky vs. Tennessee | Tennessee (-16) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
Pittsburgh vs. SMU | Pittsburgh (+7.5) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
TCU vs. Baylor | Baylor (-3.5) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
My favorite ATS picks this week
College football picks as of Tuesday. Our NEW college football player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!
Vanderbilt (+6.5) vs. Auburn
Best odds: -108 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 51.92%
It's hard to wrap my head around Auburn being favored by so much. The Tigers are just 2-3 ATS in SEC play and 1-4 straight up while the Commodores have been one of the most pleasant surprises in the country - 4-0 ATS in SEC play and 2-2 straight up.
Vanderbilt's been an underdog in all four of its conference games and has covered each time thanks to QB Diego Pavia having this offense ranked 12th in EPA per dropback. He should be capable of getting after a Tigers' defense that's outside of the top 70 in EPA per rush and dropback.
Auburn is also not built to win high-scoring games. Hugh Freeze's offense is 52nd in SP+ and scored 24 points or fewer in every SEC game this season. The Commodores hung 40 on Alabama.
If Pavia can lead another cover for Vanderbilt, a $10 bet pays a $9.26 profit.
Texas A&M (-2.5) vs. South Carolina
Best odds: -110 via bet365 | Implied probability: 52.38%
Texas A&M is coming off a major comeback win against LSU, and having to play South Carolina on the road could be tricky for the Aggies. That's why this spread is lower than I was expecting, but I'm still backing the Aggies.
Head coach Mike Elko has seemingly figured out the quarterback situation with Marcel Reed behind center. His mobility will be an X-factor against a South Carolina defense that's had more trouble stopping the run than the pass—31st in EPA per rush on defense.
But the reason I'm backing Texas A&M is its dominant defense, which ranks in the top 17 in EPA per rush and dropback. The Aggies' defensive line should be all over the Gamecocks, who rank just 53rd in SP+ and 61st in EPA per dropback.
I just don't think South Carolina will be able to score enough to cover. And if Elko's team comes through, a $10 bet pays a $9.09 profit.
Pittsburgh (+7.5) vs. SMU
Best odds: -110 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 52.38%
Obviously, Holstein's status being up in the air is a concern. But he seemed to be moving around just fine on the sideline after exiting early against Syracuse in Week 9. Head coach Pat Narduzzi also doesn't believe in discussing injuries, a classic old-school approach to keeping the other team guessing.
That team, SMU, is in trouble regardless. The Mustangs just got gifted a win against Duke after committing six turnovers. That won't fly against a Panthers' defense that's 13th in EPA per rush and sixth in early downs EPA.
Even if Holstein isn't out there, the Mustangs are going to have to try and slow breakout star running back Desmond Reid for four quarters with a defense that's outside the top 30 in SP+.
The Panthers are among the best teams in the country ATS (6-1), and another cover would pay a $9.09 profit on a $10 bet.
College football picks roundup: Week 10
- College football Week 10 upset picks
- College football Week 10 player props
- College football Week 10 expert picks
- College football Week 10 best bets
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