Free NFL Picks: Predictions & Best Bets

As much as I love Matthew Stafford and Sean McVay on one side, this feels like a lot of points at home for a team that looked scrappy in Cam Ward's debut against an elite Denver defense.

The Tennessee Titans will struggle to score points this season, and the Los Angeles Rams are likely to heap the pressure on Cam Ward. I like the matchup for the Rams and expect Matthew Stafford and Co. to be more productive against a defense that isn't as good as Houston's. 

The Titans are in for a long season, and it's not getting any easier on Sunday against the Rams. Tennessee couldn't get anything going on offense in Week 1, with Cam Ward being sacked six times. Look for the Los Angeles defense and Matthew Stafford's unit to play with their food come Week 2.

The Titans' defense showed surprising promise in Week 1 against the Broncos, while an elite Rams unit gets to face off against rookie passer Cam Ward. Even if L.A. is more explosive offensively compared to its season opener, I don't think Tennessee will do its part to pass this total.

Expect a ton of trips in the red area in Week 2 and for Puka to be relied upon heavily againt the lowly Tennessee Titans.

The target volume will be there for him, which was evident in Week 1 after hauling in 10 of his 11 targets for 130 yards. We're playing not only his yards, but his receptions as well, against a team in the Tennessee Titans that may just have one of the worst secondaries in the league this year.

Cam Ward’s debut didn’t go as hoped, but it largely wasn’t his fault. Denver’s stingy defense and an NFL-high five drops by his receivers limited Ward to 112 passing yards, despite him totaling an astronomical 294 air yards, eighth-most in the NFL. Ward’s 10.5 air yards per attempt also ranked second in the league. If Ward’s supporting cast can play better against a worse defense, he should pop in Week 2.

If it's one thing we know about Puka Nacua, it's that he will fight for every yard given to him. Now the leader and focal point of the Rams' offense, any number under 85 receiving yards is providing us with some value.

What else do we know? The target volume will also be there for him, which was evident in Week 1 after hauling in 10 of his 11 targets for 130 yards.

This feels like the quintessential fade opportunity for Aaron Rodgers and Co. against a tough Seattle defense that should cause more issues for the 41-year-old quarterback next week.

Seattle were unlucky against the San Francisco 49ers in Week 1, while the opposite is true of the Pittsburgh Steelers. Aaron Rodgers saved his new team's bacon against the New York Jets, but I expect him to have more trouble against an elite Seahawks defense. 

Mike Macdonald's defense seems to be taking shape in Seattle. I think the Seahawks' defensive line gets after an immobile Aaron Rodgers to help the team pick up a road win.

It's easy to buy into Buffalo at whatever price, but I'm taking the points on a New York team that showed some real promise in that seesaw affair with the Steelers.

Laying the points on Buffalo feels right after its eye-popping comeback win over the Baltimore Ravens. And if Aaron Rodgers can have his way with the New York Jets defense, Josh Allen should have no problem. 

I am banking on the public's overreactions to these teams scoring 73 combined points last week, and taking advantage of that with this contrarian Under.

If Week 1 is indicative of a season-long narrative, then the Bills' defense is going to need help - and a lot of it. The Jets' offense surprisingly looked great against the Steelers last week, and we all know Josh Allen and his offense are going to put up points. Look for this game to go Over with both teams exchanging shots. 

Expect Cook to see increased usage Sunday after Josh Allen carried the ball 14 times last week versus Baltimore. New York allowed the fourth-most rushing TDs in the NFL last year.

The chemistry between Wilson and former Ohio State teammate Justin Fields was apparent in Week 1, when Wilson was targeted on nine of Field's 21 throws versus the Steelers.

He'll be going up against a defense and secondary that got absolutely torched by Jackson and Co. on Sunday Night Football in Week 1. Not only will Fields be going up against a defensive unit that might be in a lot of trouble this year, but the man on the other side is going to be putting up a ton of points. 

In that type of game script, you can expect this run-heavy offense to turn into a pass-heavy one quite quickly, especially if they're down by a couple scores come halftime - which is definitely in the realm of possibilities in this division matchup.

New York ran the ball on nearly 63% of its plays last week, while the Bills gave up a league-high 8.2 yards per carry in their opener against Baltimore.

I'm not convinced that this is rock bottom for Detroit, but I do expect a bounce-back performance next week in former coordinator Ben Johnson's return to Ford Field.

The Lions will be in a sour mood against their division rivals for the first game of the season at Ford Field. Following an outright loss, Detroit is 10-0 ATS in the last 10. The Chicago Bears imploded on Monday Night Football, scoring just three offensive points after hitting pay dirt on the opening drive. 

As of Wednesday night 83% of the money wagered in this game had been on Detroit’s point spread (the second-most lopsided split thus far), so I am happy to back the contrarian side. Jared Goff is 3-18-1 in his career without Sean McVay or Ben Johnson as his play caller.

Though he didn't have many yards last week, Odunze led the Bears in receptions and targets, and he caught a one-yard touchdown. All of the Bears' touchdowns against the Lions last season were from Caleb Williams' passes, and based on Week 1, Odunze is the most likely to benefit if Williams continues to pick apart the Lions' defense.

St. Brown is the focal point of Detroit’s passing game and will once again draw the team’s highest target share. With the Lions facing the Chicago Bears this week, a defense that has shown vulnerability to elite slot receivers, expect Jared Goff to look his way repeatedly in scoring situations. The red-zone volume will be there, and the connection between Goff and St. Brown will be on full display once again.

Goff has thrown six interceptions in his last three games. Additionally, he has struggled with turnovers to start recent seasons, as he threw an interception in his first three games last year and three of his first four games in 2023.

Gibbs had only 19 rushing yards last week, but he gets to face a team he ran for 87 and 109 yards against last season. The Bears allowed 4.6 yards per carry last week. Gibbs had 19 touches in Week 1. If he sees that type of inclusion this week, he will crush this number.

I was more encouraged last week by what I saw from the Giants, whose offense faces real concerns but features a menacing defense that should keep this game close.

Dak Prescott was sharp in the opener against the Philadelphia Eagles, and I expect CeeDee Lamb to make up for his costly Week 1 drops. The Cowboys defense improved significantly in the second half against Philly, and I have no faith in Russell Wilson and his offense, especially on the road. 

Malik Nabers failed to score a touchdown in both of his games against the Cowboys in his rookie season, but still put up monster numbers. Nabers saw 13-plus targets in both games, and averaged 10 receptions for 92 yards. His 12 targets in Week 1 were the sixth-most among wide receivers, and New York’s struggles in goal-to-go scenarios should make it more inclined to air the ball out sooner in drives.

Prescott conceded two goal-line opportunities to running back Javonte Williams, who scored the team’s only two touchdowns on one-yard plunges. But Prescott still led the NFL in passing touchdowns (36) in his last full season played in 2023. 

Wilson scrambled his way to 44 yards rushing on eight carries last week. So while there is always the risk of losing rushing yards due to sacks taken, Wilson should be in enough zone-read situations or plays where he is escaping the pocket to exceed this projected total. 

It's hard to trust that Baltimore won't blow a big lead late, but there's a clear gap between these two teams on paper - and the Ravens should be hungry after blowing Week 1.

Jackson went over this number 12 times last season, and while the Cleveland Browns did hold Joe Burrow to just 113 yards last week, it was Chase Brown who was the focal point of that offense with 21 rush attempts. Now, Derrick Henry will undoubtedly star in this game as well, but Jackson played the Browns twice a season ago and went over this number both times - including a 23-of-38, 289-yard performance in Week 8. 

Jerry Jeudy might claim there are no challenges to facing Baltimore's secondary, but the trio of Nate Wiggins, Marlon Humphrey, and Kyle Hamilton held him to 13 yards on six targets in Week 18 last year.

Mark Andrews caught one pass for five yards on 16 routes in the season opener. He could have another quiet day in Week 2.

In the five games the Ravens were favored by more than a touchdown last year, Lamar Jackson averaged 6.4 rushing attempts. He went Under this mark three times.

I don't necessarily expect a repeat performance for San Francisco this week against New Orleans, which had the Cardinals on the ropes last week and faces an injury-riddled 49ers squad.

The San Francisco 49ers have already been ravaged by the injury bug, losing George Kittle and Jauan Jennings. Brock Purdy has a toe issue, while the 49ers' field goal team was woeful in Seattle. The scenario represents a perfect storm against a New Orleans Saints team that deserved better against Arizona. 

San Francisco is fortunate to be 1-0 coming into this Week 2 matchup in the Superdome after squeaking out a win in Seattle last weekend. The 49ers' pass-catchers are beyond banged up, and even Brock Purdy's health is in question. New Orleans has the veteran talent on defense to keep this one close at home.

Whether Brock Purdy plays or not, the 49ers can lean on Christian McCaffrey and their defense to get the job done against the lowly Saints.

I don't know how Miami could be favored over any team right now after a humiliating loss last week that felt like the beginning of the end for Mike McDaniel. I'll be fading the 'Fins until he's gone.

All is not well with the Miami Dolphins, whose offense has experienced a precipitous freefall from its glory days a few seasons ago. Tyreek Hill is miserable, and Mike McDaniel seems to have lost his player's trust. His quarterback was grossly inaccurate in Week 1, and the defense couldn't lay a hand on Daniel Jones and Co.  

Mike McDaniel’s Miami Dolphins suffered their third loss of at least 25 points in four seasons with him at the helm. Worse, they made New York Giants castoff Daniel Jones look like an MVP candidate, after he became the fifth player in NFL history to throw for 250 yards and run for two or more touchdowns in a season opener.

Miami has won four straight games and eight of the last nine in this AFC East rivalry. But I believe in the new Mike Vrabel regime in New England, and the Dolphins gave no indication in Week 1 that they are a playoff contender. The Dolphins allowed the Colts to score on all seven of their possessions last week, while making Giants castoff Daniel Jones look like a bonafide MVP candidate.

Expect Tua to get Hill involved early and often, with Miami looking to push the ball deep. Hill averaged nearly eight targets per game against the Patriots last season, and we should see a similar workload as the Dolphins aim to bounce back in Week 2. 

This spread feels too influenced by what we saw last week from these teams, even though Jacksonville faced a far easier test. Cincy deserves more respect at home.

Brown caught three of four targets for 52 yards (with a long of 23) in his Jaguars debut last week. The Bengals allowed Joe Flacco to pass for 290 yards while surrendering a 66.7% catch rate, and Trevor Lawrence should fare even better.

Two-way star Travis Hunter looked solid in his debut, racking up six receptions for 33 yards. But despite his lack of total yardage, the books are leaving that prop about the same due to the high volume he received. That’s a mistake, especially after head coach Liam Coen shared that Hunter would see more usage on defense against Joe Burrow this week.

The Cincinnati Bengals became the first team since 1995 to win a game with fewer than 10 total yards in the second half. But I am chalking up Cincinnati’s surprisingly poor offensive performance to the familiarity of facing a divisional opponent, as the Cleveland Browns are well-versed in the Bengals’ tendencies.

I don't love laying this many points on a team that is questionably good, but the Panthers are unquestionably awful and can't be trusted to keep this game close.

Kyler Murray is 14-19 ATS as the betting favorite, including 5-8 between -3.5 and -6.5. Also, the Panthers stayed within this number last year against Arizona. And Arizona didn't deserve to cover against New Orleans. 

The Panthers are the second team in the Super Bowl era to allow 200 or more rushing yards in seven straight games. And Kyler Murray was responsible for seven of the team’s 27 carries last week, so it is not a given that running back James Conner will get the ball in goal-to-go situations.

Chubba Hubbard scored in Week 1, and we're riding him to repeat against the Arizona Cardinals. The reasoning is simple - he gets pure volume as both a running back and receiver.

Not only did he carry the ball 16 times, but he also drew five targets from Bryce Young out of the backfield and is heavily used in the red zone. All of this breeds confidence in his ability to score for a second consecutive game.

The only reason this spread is within a field goal is because Indy laid the smackdown on a lifeless Miami team. I'd expect major regression against Denver's elite D.

Denver's offense remained in first gear for most of the game against Tennessee, and it still managed to cover (if you got in on the early spread). I can't see the Broncos offense being nearly as bad in Week 2, nor can I envision a scenario where Daniel Jones is as proficient against one of the league's elite defenses. 

The Broncos defense is coming off generating the second-highest pressure rate in Week 1 (50%), as well as the fourth-lowest completion percentage over expected (-10.5%) per Next Gen Stats. Meanwhile, Indianapolis just held Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa to a league-worst 2.7 QBR.

Indianapolis dominated yardage when these teams met last year, but was undone by five turnovers. The Colts' offense also looks much improved after scoring on all seven of its possessions in Week 1.

Jalen Hurts continues to be the most disrespected QB in the league, and I don't see Kansas City stopping him and Saquon Barkley at once. Remember how that went last time?

The Eagles have a much more well-rounded offense, and my faith in the Chiefs' attack deteriorated after Xavier Worthy suffered his shoulder injury. The second-year wide receiver probably won't feature, leaving Mahomes with Hollywood Brown as his only downfield threat. The current situation sounds eerily similar to last season, which will again force Mahomes into being a checkdown quarterback. 

This is a rematch of last year’s Super Bowl that the Philadelphia Eagles dominated, particularly on defense. But I am banking on the Arrowhead crowd to make all the difference in this rematch, and I am not opposing Patrick Mahomes, who is 1-1 as the Kansas City Chiefs’ signal caller as a home underdog, and who won 11 of his first 15 starts as a ‘dog of any kind.

Some of Mahomes' stats are superhuman. However, his career home record of 58-13 (81.69% win percentage) might be the most impressive. The future Hall of Fame quarterback is also 22-5 immediately following a loss in his eight seasons as Kansas City's starter. All of this is to say defeat is not an option for the Chiefs in this spot.

Pass protection was an issue for Kansas City in Week 1. It ranked 25th with a 52% Pass Block Win Rate, and Mahomes was pressured on 33% of dropbacks. That led to being ranked 17th in the league in Offensive Efficiency. 

With Worthy unlikely to feature and fellow Chiefs' wide receiver Rashee Rice out, Mahomes will likely be forced into a bunch of short, quick passes.

Despite the uncertainty in the Eagles' secondary, he won't be confident in testing the downfield waters frequently. In addition, Mahomes hit the Under in 10 of the last 12 games. 

DeVonta Smith led all Eagles wide receivers in snaps in Week 1. He now gets a tasty matchup against a Chiefs defense that has allowed the eighth-most targets to slot receivers since 2024.

Pacheco played less than half the snaps and had seven total touches last week, and now faces an Eagles defense who allowed the eighth-fewest rushing yards per game to running backs since 2024. Philadelphia also gets its best run-stuffer back in Jalen Carter, who essentially served a one-game suspension last week for a spitting incident. 

While JJ McCarthy still has some work to do to leave his training wheels behind, I'm still loving this team in this specific matchup. From a defensive standpoint, the Vikings were far and away the better unit, ranking 13th in total defense a year ago against the Falcons' 22nd-ranked defense. That's all we should need for the Minnesota offense to feast.

I really want to take the points on a Falcons team that showed heart in Week 1, but the Vikings' roster feels underappreciated by the market until we see more from J.J. McCarthy - that makes me even more compelled to bet early into the uncertainty.

Ultimately, results come down to coaching. Kevin O'Connell proved himself as one of the league's brightest offensive minds last season when guiding Minnesota to a 14-3 record, including a 42-21 thrashing of Atlanta. Meanwhile, there's a reason Raheem Morris is among the favorites to be the first NFL coach fired.