CFL 2018 Thread

[KVB]

The CFL Sharp forecast fund has picked the following plays…

Calgary Stampeders -7 (-106) over Saskatchewan Roughriders….

The sharp forecast has Calgary winning with 23 or 24 points to Saskatchewan’s 0 points. The stacking forecast has Calgary winning with 31 or 33 points to Saskatchewan’s 13 points. The non-predictive public gauge shows Calgary winning basically 27-17.

Those unsophisticated methods using means and medians show Calgary winning with scores in the 20’s and a very low total from 20 to 30 points. Like the sharp forecast, these numbers do not give Saskatchewan much credit against Calgary.

The line opened with Calgary -7, ticked downward to 6 in some places, and then made its way toward the numbers to -7.5. The Total opened at 47.5 and really hasn’t budged.

There may have been manipulation here to get a better Calgary number and it may have worked.

I pretty much laid out what I have. Not much in an edge with streak riding and streak breaking metrics and with Ottawa potentially settling it gets even weaker. While there’s not much of an edge, there is plenty of reason for those bettors to engage this game, on both sides.

The Total is fairly split and the line makes sense. Calgary money and tickets are still dominating spread wise and we still see that moneyline level of bets tend toward the upset. Parlay activity is also on Calgary.

One thing to mention, we have evidence that there were some larger bets place on the Calgary moneyline.

This first game isn’t over, and a comeback is not unreasonable here. Remember, in the CFL no lead is safe and we haven’t seen any TD’s yet.

[Hngkng]

All the best KVB. Someone will win in this thread to wrap up the week

[KVB]

[KVB]

This game, with what I am seeing, has all the makings of a Calgary win but no cover.

Know that there is pressure for Calgary to lose, at the same time, the line grows.

The bettors have faith in Calgary.

I want to take the dog in a counter to the forecast but we know what Calgary can do.

We also know that things are shifting and the dominate Calgary could regress a little as other teams start to take hold.

The Ottawa winner today made sense and it is my feel that those same underdog bettors don't get Saskatch tonight.

But...lol...

Just when you give yourself reason to jump off the dog and take the perennial favorite, the dog wants to bark.

By the way, Saskatchewan has won as a dog two times in a row with the prospect of a third being unlikely, and with Calgary being the opponent adding to that, things could get very interesting.

All of the sudden, Saskatchewan could win this game.

I'm sticking with the forecast for now, but I think you can see what's happening.

[KVB]

Alright, here's a bold play.

I have picked up Saskatchewan Roughriders +260 over Calgary Stampeders, in a counter to the forecast.

It is my belief that the moneyline dollars are getting flatter, more even and this represents a chance for Calgary to give up a loss.

Good Luck.

[Hngkng]

Well that ended fast

[KVB]

Yeah, typical Calgary doing there thing.

[KVB]

Best 1st quarter for Calgary, worst 1st quarter for Saskatchewan for the season.

Sharp and stacking forecasts on their way to 3-1 this week.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Calgary shot out of a cannon.

What was Calgary Grey Cup price going into this week? What will it be on Monday?

[KVB]

I saw Calgary at 7/5

Hamilton, Edmonton, and Winnipeg were all 6-1.

[Hngkng]

We might have ourselves a game.

[KVB]

Saskatch with some life.

It's not often you get a pick six off of Bo Levi Mitchell.

[Hngkng]

Saskatch with some life.

It's not often you get a pick six off of Bo Levi Mitchell.

Our player listed as DE playing FS with the puck 6 haha

[KVB]

Our player listed as DE playing FS with the puck 6 haha

[ChuckyTheGoat]

I saw Calgary at 7/5

Hamilton, Edmonton, and Winnipeg were all 6-1.

Thx, good info. Winnipeg really does look live of late.

[KVB]

They showed the guys pouring beer at the concession stand and they spilled.

The announcers clowned em, told them the needed to step up their game.

They get a chance on TV and spill.

You have one job!!!

[Coolcanuck79]

They showed the guys pouring beer at the concession stand and they spilled.

The announcers clowned em, told them the needed to step up their game.

They get a chance on TV and spill.

You have one job!!!

[KVB]

Alright, here's a bold play.

I have picked up Saskatchewan Roughriders +260 over Calgary Stampeders, in a counter to the forecast.

It is my belief that the moneyline dollars are getting flatter, more even and this represents a chance for Calgary to give up a loss....

[Hngkng]

The riders should just punt on first down next game. Defence outscores the offence again.

[Hngkng]

I’ve never heard booing so loud in Saskatchewan.

[KVB]

I’ve never heard booing so loud in Saskatchewan.

They had a packed house, ready to go against the best.

I got fooled.

[Art Vandelay]

I’ve never heard booing so loud in Saskatchewan.

After somehow losing to Montreal in Sask nothing should surprise the hometown fans...

[Hngkng]

Manziel confirmed starting this week vs Hamilton

[KVB]

Manziel confirmed starting this week vs Hamilton

Sharp forecast showed Hamilton winning by 3, 4, 5, or 6 points. It's not often we have that range of points, 3-6.

Open was Hamilton -6, once it ticked up with enough market agreement, I had to go in for Fund purposes and got +7.

It was late last night, I really wasn't happy about it, lol, let's see if he provides a spark.

The sharp forecast has beaten the closing line in 7 of the 8 games and the Calgary -19.5 went up, but closed where it opened.

https://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/players-talk/3476270-kvb-total-return-fund-p5.html#post27946019

Coming off of a 3-1 week, with markets moving towards so much, there will either be an early season pop for a week or two with the forecast, or the rug is pulled out as soon as this week.

The good news is that even a 2-2 ATS week with the forecast constitutes the "rug being pulled out" because of it's effect on the percentage. Of course that's due to the low number of games so far.

Any other info on these games is much appreciated guys. I'll get to the basics of numbers soon. I'm still refining that stacking forecast.

Manziel, with no stats, lol, has to be accounted for without attempting speculation.

[LT Profits]

Sharp forecast showed Hamilton winning by 3, 4, 5, or 6 points. It's not often we have that range of points, 3-6.

Open was Hamilton -6, once it ticked up with enough market agreement, I had to go in for Fund purposes and got +7.

It was late last night, I really wasn't happy about it, lol, let's see if he provides a spark.

The sharp forecast has beaten the closing line in 7 of the 8 games and the Calgary -19.5 went up, but closed where it opened.

https://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/players-talk/3476270-kvb-total-return-fund-p5.html#post27946019

Coming off of a 3-1 week, with markets moving towards so much, there will either be an early season pop for a week or two with the forecast, or the rug is pulled out as soon as this week.

The good news is that even a 2-2 ATS week with the forecast constitutes the "rug being pulled out" because of it's effect on the percentage. Of course that's due to the low number of games so far.

Any other info on these games is much appreciated guys. I'll get to the basics of numbers soon. I'm still refining that stacking forecast.

Manziel, with no stats, lol, has to be accounted for without attempting speculation.

Forecast seems short to me, I have it closer to -9. Als are attrociously bad on defense.

[KVB]

Forecast seems short to me, I have it closer to -9. Als are attrociously bad on defense.

Stacking percentages forecast is going to be closer to 15 or 18.

Sharp forecast is special, LT, and tells us something about the market.

That said, I expected that line to move away this week, and the opener, being right at 6 with the other number above, and the name Montreal on the board, shows me the originators were thinking the same thing.

Thanks for checking in, I know you are busy but try to hang out a bit, the stories that get told in here about the markets are eye opening and we'd love to have you around.

Isn't that right guys?

[Coolcanuck79]

Never a dull moment in this thread KVB!

Stacking percentages forecast is going to be closer to 15 or 18.

Sharp forecast is special, LT, and tells us something about the market.

That said, I expected that line to move away this week, and the opener, being right at 6 with the other number above, and the name Montreal on the board, shows me the originators were thinking the same thing.

Thanks for checking in, I know you are busy but try to hang out a bit, the stories that get told in here about the markets are eye opening and we'd love to have you around.

Isn't that right guys?

[Hngkng]

KVB I’m with you on Ottawa and Saskatchewan tonight!

[KVB]

The CFL Sharp Forecast Fund has picked up the following plays...

Ottawa Redblacks –3.5 (-110) over Toronto Argonauts…

The sharp forecast has Ottawa winning with 27 points to Toronto’s 13 points. The stacking forecast has Ottawa winning with 33 or 34 points to Toronto’s 16 or 17 points. The public gauge sees Ottawa winning about 25-20.

The line opened early with Ottawa -3.5 and has moved towards the forecasts to -6.5. The Total opened at 48.5, between the forecasts and just under the stacking forecast and has seen slight pressure towards the sharp forecast with some 48s but has for the most part remained unchanged.

The Total is split in a sense that, from the samples I see, the tickets have come in on the Under, but the money disagrees and looks to be on the Over. Looking at the forecasts and gauge, it sure looks like there is a sharp amount of money supporting that Total and we can see it bounced when it has hit 48 at larger books, like Pinny.

While the public gauge shows less than a 6 point game, there is indication that this spread, while moving as much as it has, is being held back but heavy moneyline bets on Toronto.

Pressure is mounting for Toronto, last year’s champs, to get a win here.

Streak riding and breaking indicators appear neutral, but I have one more set of meta-type analysis to run there, to analyze season results, and results as the season matured into week 6. I would like a couple more weeks to really get those going.

Short term we see give and take on that streak level in the two games today.

It’s the first game of the week, it starts the money flowing and if Toronto can’t get the upset, we can see some stacking start to occur.

Last week swung with two games, now this week starts with two games.

I’ll try to update as the market volume and numbers start to come into play, from my perspective as we get within an hour of game time.

[KVB]

...The Total is split in a sense that, from the samples I see, the tickets have come in on the Under, but the money disagrees and looks to be on the Over. Looking at the forecasts and gauge, it sure looks like there is a sharp amount of money supporting that Total and we can see it bounced when it has hit 48 at larger books, like Pinny....

Remember that business about watching the Over come in while the sharp forecast fails against the Totals?

We could see on Over in that first game tonight and it's not a bad play, from my information.

I am trying my best to get this info updated well before game time, but it'snot always easy to grab from these smaller leagues.

[KVB]

As volume comes in here we can see spread bets and money on Ottawa but the exact opposite for both on the moneyline as Toronto is the popular bet there.

That said, we have seen some more money come in on the Ottawa moneyline, making it a bit more even. As such, that moneyline pressure may not hold the spread down much longer, we could see it rise or pressure upward in price.

...The Total is split in a sense that, from the samples I see, the tickets have come in on the Under, but the money disagrees and looks to be on the Over. Looking at the forecasts and gauge, it sure looks like there is a sharp amount of money supporting that Total and we can see it bounced when it has hit 48 at larger books, like Pinny...

The Total situation changed a bit here as tickets started flying in on the Over, but the there has again, been money in disagreement, hitting the Under at the time. The money is still on the Over, but is getting more even, even though tickets have piled on the Over.

This sharper money in the face of betting tickets just might tick that line back down, to 48, in a type of mid day reverse line movement.

We have seen over bets come flying in and the market is absorbing them since I posted last. This has been a good Total line for the books.

[Coolcanuck79]

Late post on this game but I ended up taking Ottawa ML for 5 units. Harris looking good so far.

[KVB]

The CFL Sharp Forecast Fund has picked up the following plays...

Saskatchewan Roughriders +9 (-110) over Edmonton Eskimos…

The CFL Sharp Forecast Fund has picked up Edmonton Eskimos -6 (-110) over Saskatchewan Roughriders...

The sharp forecast has Edmonton winning with 24 points to Saskatchewan’s 16 or 17 points. The stacking forecast shows Edmonton winning with 30 points to Saskatchewan’s 20 points. The public gauge shows Edmonton winning 30-27.

Less sophisticated methods show Edmonton winning by about a touchdown in lower scoring games, similar to the sharp forecast.

This line opened near the stacking forecast with Edmonton -9 and moved not only toward the forecast but passed through the forecast, triggering a middling opportunity in the CFL Sharp Forecast Fund.

Middles are very rare here, but we do see a push on one side when lines move like this.

The Total opened at 53 and has ticked downward, toward the forecasts and away from the gauge.

I wanted to get this info in the thread and will return later with some more market analysis.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Collaros starting for SASK. Wasn't reported until mid-week.

[Hngkng]

Collaros starting for SASK. Wasn't reported until mid-week.

Was reported yesterday when both teams released their depth charts