CFL 2018 Thread

[KVB]

Just walked in, sounds like they are hyping Toronto momentum heading into the 4th.

At a quick glance I think the market is selling Saskatchewan, which is not good for Saskatchewan as they were already sold at the open.

Let's see if Toronto makes it ambiguous as we approach game two.

[Hngkng]

Redblacks basically packed it in.......

[KVB]

Ok, if we see the favorite here, from a market perspective, Saskatchewan could be in trouble. The market has been stacking money on Saskatchan and has used a couple of techniques, including exploiting those streak riding and streak breaking bettors that are involved in similar situations in both games.

The market may have found its give and take, but Saskatchewan, and Collaros, may not be up for the task.

As far as how they bring it, if we see that favorite tonight cover without a doubt, we see Saskatchewan on the board first, but then it becomes, not about Edmonton success, but Saskatchewan's failure.

Before we get there, though, game one needs to be decided.

Let's see if they taunt ambiguity a second time.

[Hngkng]

This is going to make us sick

[KVB]

First game a bit misleading, are we really surprised?

We've seen this movie before. It's not what they bring...

On top of that, there were quite a few metrics moving money to Saskatchewan, there was more of a two game give and take than I had time to layout earlier but was able to get into as things moved by the 4th quarter.

In the CFL, no lead is safe.

If we see an upset, things change here for Saskatchewan. They could actually win the game. It appears, while bets are on that upset, the money is far more even.

Even with a Toronto cover of that closing spread, this opens that door for Saskatchewan.

[Coolcanuck79]

This is brutal. Even the ML can't hit without stress!

[KVB]

The sharp forecast was 3-1 last week, two consecutive moneyline losses tonight would not be out of the question, although it is not likely at all, in fact, it is always unlikely, no matter the environment.

Even the moneyline down to the last play.

[KVB]

It's not a middle, with that 5 point game.

The CFL had one middle last year, in week 6 where the -7 point opener dropped to -5.5 and it was a 6 point game.

This first game could not have been more deceptive.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Crazy CFL finish.

[KVB]

Crazy CFL finish.

It's not what they bring, it's how they bring it.

Good to see you Chucky.

[KVB]

...If we see an upset, things change here for Saskatchewan. They could actually win the game. It appears, while bets are on that upset, the money is far more even.

Even with a Toronto cover of that closing spread, this opens that door for Saskatchewan...

The sharp forecast was 3-1 last week, two consecutive moneyline losses tonight would not be out of the question, although it is not likely at all, in fact, it is always unlikely, no matter the environment.

Even the moneyline down to the last play.

Saskatchewan trying to make a run at the upset here.

[cankid]

Hope so after keeping Reilly at 4 for 13 in the 1st Half and seeing the Defensive pressure Sask was able to get in the 1st Half figured the +3,5 getting the 1st was worth a decent play

[cankid]

Sask has a good Def too bad their QB situation is sketchy at times

[KVB]

The CFL Sharp Forecast Fund has picked up the following plays...

Saskatchewan Roughriders +9 (-110) over Edmonton Eskimos…

The CFL Sharp Forecast Fund has picked up Edmonton Eskimos -6 (-110) over Saskatchewan Roughriders...

White made FG to get a 7 point lead, but had to kick it again.

He made it, again.

Now Edmonton leads 26-19 with seconds to go.

[KVB]

[Hngkng]

I'm done here for a bit guys.
Sorry for being a loser this year. Awful loss on the Redblacks game, then an awful push to end off the night.

See you all in a bit, all the best

[KVB]

Don't go for long HngKng, keep up the studying and drop by with any info if you come across some.

I'll hope to bring some fresh information myself, just working on putting it together, so make sure you check in pal.

[Coolcanuck79]

I'm done here for a bit guys.
Sorry for being a loser this year. Awful loss on the Redblacks game, then an awful push to end off the night.

See you all in a bit, all the best

I feel the exact same way. See you soon buddy. take it easy.

[KVB]

Even if we're not winning, even if the market is beating us up, even if our Yin is their Yang, even if we forced a play for the thread and didn't pass, even if we passed and didn't make the play, no matter what, there is always a story, you know this, and there is always more learning for all of us; it's how we get better.

Tune in and keep me in check guys. These markets are up and down, let's not let them break us. I always talk about how the market is trying to deter bettors, to leave a bad taste in their mouths.

You've seen the story and know it lasts many weeks. If it's trying to put you off it's because overall, and in the end, it may fear you.

Hope to see everyone soon.

[Coolcanuck79]

I am going with Hamilton over 50 tonight. I think some points get scored with Manziel trying to impress and Hamilton's ability to score on Montreal's pathetic D at will.

[KVB]

This CFL Sharp Forecast Fund has picked up Montreal Alouettes +7 (-107) over Hamilton Tiger-Cats…

The sharp forecast has Hamilton winning with 17 or 19 points to Montreal’s 13 or 14 points. The stacking forecast has Hamilton winning with 33 or 34 points to Montreal’s 16 or 17 points. The public gauge shows Hamilton winning by 12 points in a about a 56 points game.

Lesser sophisticated methods using season numbers, means, and medians show Hamilton winning by anywhere from 9 to 15 points in 30 to 40 points games.

The line opened with Hamilton -6 and ticked off of the forecast, to Montreal -6.5 and -7 in some places. While the opener was at the sharp forecast, technically this line has moved away by half a point. Given that the Underdog is Montreal and Hamilton is under exceeding pressure to cover, that movement makes sense even if it did pull off of the actual forecast.

Yesterday, against the close, we saw the Upset and Over followed by the Favorite and Under. We saw streak breaking bettors pull one out in the first game, only to see them fail in game two as the market sold Saskatchewan all day, something I posted about a few times yesterday.

The market has settled itself and for the game tonight pressures are relatively split. The sharp forecast splits from the other numbers when it comes to the spread and that is shown in the market place. There are more tickets on the favorite spread, but the bigger money slightly disagrees. For the most part, this market is pretty split and in the absence of any other momentum indicators, or money flow indicators, that slight money difference makes sense as to why the line could have trouble staying on 7 and the market sees that 6.5.

In fact, this line opened in a pretty sharp spot on the higher end of the sharp forecast as there is some pressure, as mentioned, for Hamilton to not only win, but to cover a spread as well. They have lost as favorites three times in a row and the market is restless.

That Total opened at the stacking forecast, right between the sharp forecast and the gauge. That gauges is indicative and know that the public and the money are both excited to see some points tonight. Plays are on the Over and the books are showing some liability as the line presses upward a bit. I cannot speak for market groups in terms of where money is going, this game draws very few into its Total market.

Johnny Football will be playing tonight and the public, especially in Montreal, are very excited, that’s the draw we see here.

[KVB]

There is a high amount of volume on this game tonight.

The bettors are excited to see Johnny Football.

The later money has been on Montreal and tipped those scales a little. The books are showing that liability in the market now, pushing toward that 6.5.

The Total situation, with the later money, has not changed.

Not much else to report here with the exception of that high volume Johnny Football condition.

Maybe he puts on a show.

[gojetsgomoxies]

this is really exciting.... i think one of the most anticipated CFL regular season games i can ever remember

bizarre collapse in ottawa-toronto game last night

[gojetsgomoxies]

CFL color commentating (glen suitor) bugs me. it is so pedantic and melodramatic........"johnny manziel has to earn the right to get on the field". i mean, was there anyone (including johnny) suggesting he should have been the start in hamilton??....

[KVB]

No way, Masoli was going for the record of consecutive 300 yard games going back to last year.

You can't bench that, not even for Johnny Football.

[Hngkng]

Didn’t bet. But hahaha @ Manziel’s first pass

[gojetsgomoxies]

Didn’t bet. But hahaha @ Manziel’s first pass

in fairness, that's been about 10% of montreal's horrible performance so far

[gojetsgomoxies]

anyone remember vince ferragamo's debut for montreal? 56-3 or something like that.

[KVB]

Yeah, don't forget at just how horrible the guy's supporting cast has been, but man even the tip is picked.

Vince, lol, good reference jets!!

[Hngkng]

anyone remember vince ferragamo's debut for montreal? 56-3 or something like that.

Vince Ferragamo 1981 disaster right down to the uniforms of the day

[Hngkng]

https://ftw.usatoday.com/2018/07/johnny-manziel-vernon-adams-montreal-alouettes-chant-quarterback-cfl-fans-reaction

You wanted Johnny? You got Johnny!!

[KVB]

https://ftw.usatoday.com/2018/07/joh...-fans-reaction

You wanted Johnny? You got Johnny!!

Oh wow, the situation in Montreal is worse than it looks, and it has looked really bad for a while.

Just wow.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Wow, Johnny back to Square One.

[Hngkng]

Another pick hahaha

[cankid]

that was his worse Pic, fading away throwing a long out, yikes