CFL 2018 Thread

[KVB]

Vernon Adams to start for Montreal

Montreal opened favored, and the line is dropping. The sharp forecast buys have the first game underdog and the next three favorites.

I did not expect Montreal to be such a favorite.

Feel a little like we are missing some injury info or something here.

I can't believe they could hang something Montreal favored over 8 here, wouldn't be surprised to see a 7.5 line at one point.

[KVB]

Wow this line is dropping, maybe even 7 is too high.

Looking at some 6's now.

Could have had +9.5 and now -6, already.

What the fuk?

[KVB]

Heritage showing the line at -5 while Pinny holds -7.

Crazy early action for this game.

[KVB]

...By the way, for that first game, the sharp forecast has Edmonton winning with 19 or 20 points to Montreal's 10 points.

I will buy if we see Edmonton -8.5 or better or Montreal +10.5 or better...

Montreal opened favored and money piling in on Edmonton.

5 D still trying to offer teaser protection, keeping that line at 8.

I mentioned 8 as a bit of key point here, but everyone else blew threw it to 7, whish is not as key and easy to blow through as well.

In fact, if it does go below 7, this is not the NFL, it doesn't need to hold at 6, it could and will go to 5.

Like Heritage.

[KVB]

...The CFL Sharp Forecast Fund has picked up Edmonton Eskimos -8 (-110) over Montreal Alouettes...

The sharp forecast has Edmonton winning with 19 or 20 points to Montreal’s 10 points. The stacking percentages forecast has Edmonton winning with 33 or 34 points to Montreal’s 16 or 17 points. The public gauge shows Edmonton winning 31-18.

This line opened in error and once it was fixed we saw an early opener with Edmonton as low as -7.5 and it has since grown to as high as 10.5 towards all the numbers. It is my belief that the originators knew they were setting up for heavy Edmonton action with the opener and many books picked the it up for their own open at everywhere from -8 to -9.5.

The Over also has pressure, away from the low sharp forecast total, but right on the other numbers. Meanwhile, the spread sits at the sharp forecast, well inside the stacking forecast and gauge.

On one hand, I can tell you again how the books want Montreal here, but we did that last week. Sure, there’s a position being taken here but again we saw that last week and are seeing it later this week as well.

Once again, I’m not going bold with a play countering the forecast, a strategy that would have paid the last couple of weeks as we saw money stack and fall.

For this game, let’s not jump the gun with a contrarian play (a market that has also boomed in the MLB Totals arena); let’s see if money stacks a little bit first and trust the forecast.

The Total is in a similar situation, with the sharp forecast on the non-public side but the other numbers at the market. Action is coming in on the Over, even as we see those other numbers in line with the market. With the market settling with the spread, especially with BC and Montreal a couple of times recently, maybe it’s Montreal’s time to settle some contrarian Total money.

In my opinion, the Under is a better play, if you are looking to fade the public, than Montreal for this first game. This is not very solid though, as Montreal will look for some offensive packages to score this week, and the public may correctly guess that game plan as we expect the sharp forecast Totals to slide a bit.

I have the early minus and am holding there, passing on the Total. I would like to see where the money falls before moving further.

I should have some action updates soon but note that last week some sources delayed the release, leading to all the game time posting where we concluded that the books were rooting for Montreal.

It’s a race for information, and sometimes the information gets delayed. You can add that to the many things that get in the way of successful sports betting.

Good Luck.

[KVB]

Edmonton is 3-2 but 1-4 against the spread.

Montreal is 1-4, but 2-3 against the spread.

These guys tend to go Over when they play in Montreal and the emergence of stats like that help contribute to that Over play. I think the line, however, is forcing bettors to gamble tonight.

So putting the market in a gamble, 50-50 type spot, but still entertaining factors that push the Over bet indicates the book is taking a position as well.

Hence the lean towards the Under. The market is making moves for game one, let's see what settles where.

Had the market held this line below 48, we'd have a more clear cut picture of them taking a position.

[Art Vandelay]

Was that a "linemaker" mistake opening Montreal as a 8-9 point favorite? The books just followed suit & I got Edm +9 and jumped on it. Thought maybe Reilly was mysteriously injured but that was obviously not the case. Did the oddsmaker give Manziel that much pop to have the Als a huge fav - Line made no sense. I was expecting the wager to be cancelled after the huge swing to the Eskies began but I'm locked in at +9. Never seen anything quite like it! The spread has now moved 19 points & there is no injury involved.

[KVB]

I don’t think it gets honored. Some books have cancelled bets. Call your book and point it out lest they hit you for shot taking. Which they shouldn’t.Some books are sensitive about that...lol.

[jjgold]

Johnny football might play

[Art Vandelay]

I don’t think it gets honored. Some books have cancelled bets. Call your book and point it out lest they hit you for shot taking. Which they shouldn’t.Some books are sensitive about that...lol.

So far so good. It wasn't a "book" mistake so it might stick.

[Hngkng]

I don’t trust Edmonton covering 10, nor do I trust Montreal staying within 10.

Im gonna go to the well again, and do a small bet on under 24.0 1H.

Might do Edmonton -10, but looking into it more first.

[KVB]

So far so good. It wasn't a "book" mistake so it might stick.

This is true, I was on the mobile but wanted to add that I'm not the authority here.

This was not a single book error, it was picked up by many early books, and was a solid line for some time. These bets were booked in a decent number as bettors were looking for this delayed line to come out.

[KVB]

I don’t trust Edmonton covering 10, nor do I trust Montreal staying within 10.

Im gonna go to the well again, and do a small bet on under 24.0 1H.

Might do Edmonton -10, but looking into it more first.

If I see more convincing market numbers showing us that 10.5 may be the close, I may pick up Montreal +10.5, per the rules of the CFL Sharp Forecast Fund.

[Hngkng]

Montreal is on a 1-0 ATS run.
They also had a 1-0 on Calgary last game.

[KVB]

Montreal on it's way to covering more spreads this year than last year.

That was a deep negative run they went on and it's like they were being punished while the rest of the league moved forward, for the most part.

The money and action, in a tiny sample that I see, less than a tenth of what we could reasonably call normal, is on Edmonton. That hasn't changed but action intensifies as we get closer and I still have more info to get.

[Coolcanuck79]

I'm rolling with the over 48. GL to all.

[Hngkng]

Just doing a small play on under 24.0 1H for now.
Might do in play on something depending on how the game is looking.

[KVB]

That line moved but for the purposes of the Fund I was unable to buy Montreal. I am at the airport and missed the play.In the other thread I explained that a buy would be triggered with .5 difference to the market and it could by both ways for a middle attempt if the line moved enough.I was just plain unavailable for the trade, I’m not too concerned, the CFL very rarely middles.But this was a strange trading line. Anyone holding what appears to be a good Edm +9?Curious to see where your bets are standing.Good luck Hngkng, Good luck Canuck.I’ll check in later.

[KVB]

Lol no paragraphs on the mobile, must be in full version.

[Hngkng]

I'm rolling with the over 48. GL to all.

Congrats to you on this!

[Coolcanuck79]

Congrats to you on this!

Thanks

[Coolcanuck79]

The halftime "concert" is so pathetic. It should be illegal to rap in French. Unreal!

[Hngkng]

The halftime "concert" is so pathetic. It should be illegal to rap in French. Unreal!

Haha I’m a country fan so liked the country singers a lot more.
Although the beaches were hot last week!

[KVB]

The halftime "concert" is so pathetic. It should be illegal to rap in French. Unreal!

I missed the halftime show just got in.

I saw that line as high as 11.5, looking at a 12 point game.

Rooting for Edmonton here, but had I been available to buy Montreal, I would be rooting for 9, 10, or 11 point game.

[KVB]

Montreal fails to cover yet another spread.

I see no stats from Manziel, but good job on the Over play Canuck!

This was written a week ago...

...remember my note about a weak sharp forecast against the Totals, then understand when we see things like the OVER tonight come, and come all season long....

There wasn't big sharp money on the Total, like the rest of that quote invokes, but there was Over pressure and the most numbers were sidelined or gambling, while the sharp forecast continued to press far under the line.

These Montreal stats will help them avoid negative ratings moving forward as they play tougher defenses.

[Otters27]

Had Montreal they got crushed

[KVB]

Had Montreal they got crushed

Been there, done that.

In fact, been there, done that several times in a row.

Had the favorite tonight though.

Get em next time Otters, check in tomorrow I'll try to get the numbers out early.

[Otters27]

They going to play Manziel next game?

[KVB]

They going to play Manziel next game?

I don't know, Adams played well and we thought Johnny would see some snaps tonight.

But he never got in the game.

They brought in Manziel to play so anytime now.

[KVB]

The CFL Sharp forecast fund has picked the following plays…

Winnipeg Blue Bombers -9.5 (-106) over Toronto Argonauts…

The sharp forecast has Winnipeg winning with 28 or 30 points to Toronto’s 13 points. The stacking forecast shows Winnipeg winning with 38 or 39 points to Toronto’s 10 points. The public gauge has Toronto winning 28-25.

This line opened with Winnipeg -9.5 and has ticked towards the forecasts. The Total opened at the gauge with 53 and has ticked away from the forecasts.

Less sophisticated methods using season averages and medians yield a pretty narrow range of Winnipeg winning by 23 points in a 48 point game.

This is actually a pretty good Total line and it is doing a good job of splitting the money for the books.

I’m sure the books would have liked to have opened this spread higher but last year’s champs going as more than 10 point dogs, even with Winnipeg on fire, just seems off. That said the books have, as you can see by the numbers and I can confirm in the samples we are looking at, taken more action and money on the favorite.

Truthfully though, as we get a little more volume, we see these numbers start to get closer to balanced. I don’t like the light volume that is being indicated this week. It is unusual and I am almost ready to get into that as I finish dealing with the data.

The market is fairly balanced here and we are starting to get some market data here that helps to tip some of that balance from a broader moneyflow standpoint. Unfortunately, at this time there aren’t any indications to do anything but follow the agreeing forecasts.

The fact that they agree so much on the spread in such a “neutral” market is a little bothersome but without other factors, it’s a gamble to counter the forecast.

As for the Total, we can see methods coming in just below the offered line with the exception of the sharp forecast, which is once again below the markets. I considered starting a CFL Sharp Forecast Inverse Totals Fund.

Here, we would fade the sharp forecast total predictions. The problem is that forecast seems to want far too many Unders, and I don’t see Overs going crazy over the near term. Again, as the market matures, I am gaining more insight into this situation.

Good Luck everyone.

[Coolcanuck79]

Tonight I am going with the under 54 as my selection. BOL to all.

[KVB]

Good Luck Canuck.

The money looks far more split then the tickets from my sample, but I feel like info is being withheld, again.

[Mxs1332]

Hey guys, how are we doing this season?

TIA

[KVB]

Really just started up last week with the forecast plays.

The were 2-2 last week and 1-0 so far this week with Edmonton.

Here are the next two games...

The CFL Sharp forecast fund has picked the following plays…

Hamilton Tiger-Cats -4 (-107) over Ottawa Redblacks.

Calgary Stampeders -7 (-106) over Saskatchewan Roughriders.

Good Luck.

We had some early season action, I'll put those results together. I think the forecasts did well, but my bold market calls may have lost money.

[Hngkng]

First half under 27.0
Small play on Toronto +10.0 too