Originally posted by KVB
Matchbook still showing -250/+244.
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That line pressed back to 7, a little back and forth here. Books are adjusting.
Matchbook still showing -250/+244.Comment -
Volume trying to force the market to 7 but Pinny is holding at -6.5 (-101), at least they aren't offering + odds, but they might as well be.
I see a -6.5 (+103) offer at matchbook.
I don't think these are great signs for the -6.5, but we haven't really discussed Pinny's recent activity to glean more from their stance.Comment -
I picked up the under 48.5 live just before the last drive. Also on Ottawa -6.5 pre-game.Comment -
Ottawa slow scoring here and BC even missed a FG.
Ever have those games where it feels like your team should have more points or a bigger lead?
On top of that, BC's missed field goal allowed Ottawa to score first.
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Harris continues to drive us crazyComment -
BC proving to be formidable and a forecast killer potentially for a second week in a row. Let's face it, even though this isn't the swing game, they've been put in this position both weeks, to an extent.Originally posted by KVBComment -
Markets haven’t adjusted to Lulay at QB?Originally posted by KVBComment -
Technically, how can they? There isn't much to go on. It is only one position, so the adjustments won't be huge.Originally posted by Hngkng
But when they do, I think it will first show in the perception of them with their play before it shows in the actual numbers.
In fact, maybe the numbers don't really have a real adjustment to make, and could simply inflate on perception.
That's when the take becomes give, or give becomes take, well, you know what I mean.
That line hitting 6.5 draws money, look at the forecasts, look at the tightness in the line. We're talking 7 or 8 points for the sharp and up to 5 for the stacking.
So 6.5 seems like it's in the middle, and it is, but the psychology of -6.5 in a football game is paramount.
This is low volume stuff but it's the same in all sports. Things like the NFL can really require patience.
Tonight it might be more about the moneyline than the spread.
When we look back, and I'm not saying I predicted this when posting, but when we do look back, you'll see I was talking about moneyline bets and moneyline pressure quite a bit.
When you see me thinking out loud, looking at the markets, the warnings, the pressure, the groups, sharp money, sharp action at Pinny, etc. chime in.
Ask if it means much, I know tonight there wasn't much time, and there won't always be time, but feel free to bring that on the ground knowledge and ask about some of those remarks. I remember in the first thread that I said to pay attention if I say a move is sharp money.
Remind me of those things, if I say them. Sometimes I cover a lot and now I'm trying to bring the real time analysis to an even more real of time. It's not easy.
It's tough.
Ottawa by no means out of it, but I can certainly see why BC bettors want to be hopeful. With probabilities in mind, I only wish BC scored first, but instead they missed the first field goal attempt. Maybe they're just doing their jobs.
Only after you accept what they bring, can you truly appreciate how they bring it.Comment -
Well, that is unfortunate but it is what it is. Had ML in a parlay and thankful it came through.Originally posted by Coolcanuck79Comment -
Originally posted by KVB
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Just unreal, I decide not to post plays countering the forecast in bold, and just warn, due to the Montreal disaster last year; but the last few would have hit, with some of them upsets.
Unreal.
I let the thread down again.Comment -
Another bold play anyone?Originally posted by KVB
Sheesh.
But seriously, the last play settled the moneyline and the Over, so I ask again...
It's a team effort everyone and some of you have been around, you're starting to pick up what I'm putting down, and some of you not posting; PM me.Originally posted by KVB
I thank you for the space, but this is bigger than just one of us, it's bigger than the forecasts.
We have back end information, that's the new element I've been giving details about.
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Dang, well that sucks that Ottawa didn't get the ATS.
2 games tomorrow though!Comment -
The sharp has Winnipeg winning with 24 or 25 points to Toronto’s 10 points. The stacking forecast has Winnipeg winning with 30 or 31 points to Toronto’s 19 or 20 points. The public gauge has Winnipeg winning by about 2 points in a 54 point game.
Once again the forecasts are in agreement and there isn’t time or need to say much other than obviously Winnipeg has been the play since they opened a pick em for the majority of the money.
The Total opened right at the stacking forecast, moved away from the sharp forecast, towards the public numbers.
There is situation developing in the streak riding streak breaking metrics but time doesn’t allow and I can get into for the next game, applicable or not.
The CFL Sharp Forecast Fund bought Winnipeg at a pickem.
We have some splitting and give and take already this week and not much reason to say either way for countering the forecast, but with that streak situation adding to the heavy money, Winnipeg could be in trouble with more than one reason to take them from a market perspective.
The move to -3.5 is huge, admittedly, and it may even be too much. It is early in the season and I would like to see how these distant moves fair relative to the forecasts and money before entering them into the equation.
Either way, I would not buy the -3.5 at this point, it's better to pass.
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The market is feeling the pressure leading up to game time.
These -3.5's just might be hitting 4 before you know it.
It's not as significant as, say, the NFL, but the pressure is still on Winnipeg.
Virtually no money is on the Toronto moneyline from my sources, and finally some is coming in as we look.
Yikes, a little Toronto moneyline to hedge that Winny pickem anyone?
I'm holding, but sometimes things move too far, for real.
Like I said, it's early yet, maybe we see some of these go off, then take a shot.Comment -
In relative terms, I estimate that we are about the same volume as yesterdays game which is about 2/3 the volume of the first game this week.
Soon we'll have means and medians with volume analysis, included for each team, to add to the thread.Comment -
A live trade based on a Toronto pregame +150 trade is an idea, but it will take a while.
Even at these low numbers and with a lead early, it will be tough to flip Toronto to the winner giving us plus odds on Winnipeg.
Let's see how it would pan out.Comment -
I totally missed all the value at Winnipeg pickem to -3.0.
Will do a small bet on over 52.0
as KVB said 4.0, I see that on Bet 365Comment -
Amazing movement.
At this point, like you say, people see the value gone, it's hard to buy 4.
So it only serves to put money on Toronto for those guys who think they have it all figured out.
Only reason I don't go the other way with a play here.Comment -
Announcers say that rematches will split more often than not, they are talking about the winner.
Of course they attribute it to adjustments, like we have in this thread already.
Just another example of the persistent nature of the give and take markets.Comment -
Yup. I forgot what the stat was for Winnipeg. But they have only swept like 4 back to backs in the last 20 years.Originally posted by KVBComment -
Looks like an early pickem for the second half, let's see if it moves.
Winnipeg with the characteristic meltdown, but at least it wasn't in the 2nd half.
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The sharp forecast has Calgary winning with 27 points to Montreal’s 0 points. The stacking forecast has Calgary winning with 40 or more points to Montreal’s 8 points. The public gauge has Calgary winning 34-10.
Unsophisticated methods will also show the blowout with lower scores in the 30’s.
The line opened at -19.5 ticked upward toward all the numbers and some opened around the height of 20.5, the market couldn’t hold and we’ve seen it drop back slightly. The Total opened at 49.5 and has ticked toward the varying lower numbers.
This won’t happen often and not likely as the market matures, but the forecast actually gives an extreme with negative Montreal raw score.
We have the best facing the awful. They managed to split the money fairly well but there are very few Calgary moneyline tickets. Everyone who can is shooting at Montreal on the big moneyline; it’s better than 9-1.
The brewing issue in the streak betting metrics is significantly mitigated with a Winnipeg win and, in a sense it’s bodes well for Calgary. I’m not trying to be cryptic but I know I didn’t get into that this morning, and there is little need now as the pressure doesn’t seem to be as much in the real time market.
One of the few things that bode well right now for Montreal is that the obvious market numbers, and the forecasts, are at extremes. I’ve mentioned the danger in probabilities when ratings are at extremes; it goes for high ratings and low ones, like negative ones.
Not to mention the high line of 20 points, the market is expressing its perception, even if the books didn’t give us much time to massage the line.
These are those extremes, and it’s not unusual to see the trend get bucked as you’ll recall when I was talking about Winnipeg stats and ratings coming back to earth, right before they lost to BC. Tonight, however, the tickets and money seem to be pointing toward the big spread. Maybe the public is ready for it.
After last year’s bold play action with both Calgary and Montreal, it would be a poetic justice of give and take for Montreal to get even ATS coverage here. But that volume is slight and the justice wouldn’t be well served.
Instead, after seeing some surprising swing game upsets, fans are conditioned and it’s just such a regular thing to see Calgary put all other bettors down, while Montreal is still in the doghouse.
Give and take is about history not repeating, except for the repeating give and take, but tonight I think we see history repeat itself.
The more solid bettors will balk at taking the high line, that’s one thing, I believe, that the books are counting on here.
The CFL Sharp Forecast Fund has Calgary -19.5 (-106).
Good Luck.
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I missed the WPG/TOR game but made $$$ at the casino. My play for tonight is Montreal team total under 14 -110. On it for 2 units.Comment -
It's hard to argue.Originally posted by Coolcanuck79
To add to what I said about extreme scores, even the stacking forecast was just a fraction of raw score points away from 3 or 8 points, instead of 8 points.
Then it would have been 40 or more to 3 or 8. That's sounds crazy, but that's the adjustment for this forecast. The same favorite and under, but I wanted to point out the strangeness of even CFL adjusted scores.
Good Luck Canuck!!Comment -
This actually wouldn't surprise me hahaOriginally posted by KVBComment -
Last year, in the Final Game of the regular season, after not covering 10 spreads in a row, Montreal was shut out 33-0 as 15 point dogs.
It was the only shutout last year. Hamilton did the damage with the 33 points.
Hamilton bounced back themselves after losing in Week 6 last year to Calgary in a 60-1 blowout.Comment -
I’m just gonna do two small bets tonight.
Under 24.5 1H
Montreal under 14.5Comment -
Dude, so tired of Montreal antics. I just can't bet into those extremes, watch them put up 15, and lose by 19.
Not trying to be negative on you guys, or even have it both ways. I don't want to give the forecast, say why it's bad or risky, then somehow find a way to be right no matter what.
That's not the goal. I'm trying to also put out the risks with what I see.
That's not directed at you guys specifically, and I think tonight it's not so bad, because we know Montreal is more than willing to shit the bed at a moments notice.
And we know which team has Bo Levi Mitchell.
On the other hand, we do know that Montreal will cover more spreads this year.
Those fuks.
Not sure the sharp forecast is ready for 3-1 weeks, but we welcome the early head start.Comment -
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Originally posted by Hngkng I was laughing my a$$ off when I was watching that game Live. Poor Montreal!
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Originally posted by Hngkng
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Basically sums up their team the last 3 years.Originally posted by Coolcanuck79 I was laughing my a$$ off when I was watching that game Live. Poor Montreal!Comment -
Ok, just got rather large volume update and it translates to a much more balanced picture of the moneyline here.
In fact, as things start trickling in, it's a much more balanced picture overall.
Perhaps the public isn't as awake to Montreal as I thought. The monyeline pressure is similar, but not as extreme, while spread and money pressure is showing on Calgary. This pressure could be built into the price of the line and we could see 19 as the book is getting a final burst of Montreal. That can be pretty sharp money.
I think they are holding, and taking a small position.Comment -
Notice Pinny, keeping the 19.5, but juicing it down.
They may have been trying to attract last minute arbers to offset some limit bets. Matchbook also shows -19.5 (+101), because the market, already balanced adequately, took some bets.
When I say they are taking a position, it means that the book was balanced adequately in that they may have kept the line at 19.5 as they anticipated late money. They may have been very comfortable with 19.5, as any move down this late could trigger dog bets they don't really want. The don't want to pile on the big late bet, in fact they would rather offset the hit.
They don't show as many signs as anticipating this time, so it's not a huge position, but I think some long time readers will gain insight into this post.
Books may be rooting for Montreal to cover tonight, but not to win.
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