-
Comment -
EDM +105 ML looking really good right now down 14-9.Comment -
This thread has only begun to heat up. I think posters starting to get it.
I will say this. I learned long ago not to really be a fan of any sport. But over the years, I will admit, that I really like the Edmonton Eskimos.
Just something about them. Now they have Walker. They have Reilly, he's like a Favre of CFL. They can play a lock down defensive mentality that's playoff worthy when they want to, no matter the personnel. They just seem like an all around great organization.
Could be one of my favorite teams in all of sports, if I had to have one.Comment -
If Edmonton covers this spread, it's once again a high pressure situation for Montreal. I've covered this last year multiple times and we all witnessed the action, multiple times.
So what do we do here? Pass on all Montreal games until it breaks? Fade Montreal until the cover? If I wasn't so sure that cover would be a home win, or just a win, I'd fade possibly fade the moneyline.
Extreme situations call for extreme measures.
I will obtain access to some volume information and will be able compile a relative scale. Provided they fail tomorrow, I will highlight the volume situation. This is the kind of thing that even JJ Gold doesn't understand.
I will warn though, it will look a lot like the current swing game type pressure situation. They can look the same for obvious reasons, but we can draw more from the metric of volume.
I am also developing other market metrics, including graphs, that I hope to put in the thread.
Can't wait for week 5 when the sharp forecast starts to roll. I will post an early season sharp forecast for week 4, along with the stacking forecast and a public gauge.
We will track them here and update constantly, much more than last year.Comment -
Unbelievable if this game stays with the Favorite and the Under. Trying to find a Total live, but nothing doing.
I like the Over.Comment -
took live Over 59.5 live at 5Dimes ..they and Greek have good ingamesComment -
On Saskatchewan -10.0 today.Comment -
Once again that market has stacked money in multiple ways. Sure, we’ve seen three straight favorites win and cover, 4 going back to the end of week 2. With 11 games played, 8 have seen the favorite cover the spread and 2 of the 3 covering underdogs were upsets. The CFL early season underdog trend was bucked this year. For the Totals, we’ve seen 5 Overs and 6 Unders.
Those are the obvious stats for the season thus far, everyone can see those results. In light of this, we can add the less obvious, something we’ve done with NCAAF and NFL playoffs. With the less obvious, but shown in this thread, we see that out of the 9 possible bets this week (ATS, ML, Total) the stacking forecast is 7-1 with no spread prediction in game 1.
The failure was last night’s OVER, which we all saw coming and some of you bet.
In fact, the stacking forecast has been correct against the spread 5 out of the last 6 games and was wrong when predicting Toronto to beat Calgary last week…
While Calgary is like the opposite of Montreal, and Hamilton beating Edmonton last week was a 6.5 point upset, it still appears that the market is working its way towards a sizeable upset. While the stacking forecast was wrong against the moneyline in last week’s upset, it did have Hamilton predicted against the spread. While I didn’t want to read much into the early season forecasts, clearly the market has taken these strategies into into account as a form of protection.
So where’s the surprise? Is it Montreal’s turn? These are the types of factors that lead to a market break for a team like Montreal, no matter the sport, no matter the market.
Then again, that fact is why nearly every league has a Montreal (think Cleveland Browns) and, to the opposite end, a Calgary (think New England Patriots, or even Tiger Woods). Montreal has failed in the face of compression factors to a level I’ve rarely seen and you’ve witnessed it yourselves in previous CFL threads.
Eventually, these juggernauts (losers or winners) will succumb to the give and take of the markets. The CFL is just really stretching out the market. If you think about it, given the success of both the stacking forecast and sharp forecast over the last 3 years, a stretched market like this serves to mitigate the “bull run” that some groups have been in for a while now.
We’re at a point where a Montreal win will come with some sort of news, probably about the other team, that helps “explain” the cover or victory. Quarterback Zach Collaros being out may actually be good news for Saskatchewan.
Just ask HngKng.
This, in my opinion, is the state of the market right now. I offer no play, but I do offer the forecast. That says Saskatchewan wins with 40 or more points to Montreal’s 10 points. With no discrepancy against the market, that predicts the Favorite and the Over.
Consider this post when comparing with your own handicapping and remember this post when assessing the results of the game and week.
Comment -
Great info as always KVB, thanks!
Im so happy Sacked Collaros is out, I have been saying that Bridge should have been the starter all along. Messam won't be starting today, Marcus Thigpen is back from a 2 game suspension, so he should give the Riders a nice boost.Comment -
KVB sharp
Many tail himComment -
GL Sask and over backers. Let's get this.Comment -
This is a national disgrace.Comment -
Do they have a 2H comeback in them? -7Comment -
Man we put in our 3rd strong QB.....Comment -
This game is not about Saskatchewan.
Montreal under so much pressure here and this is the first time this season the market, so early, set up such a situation as I described above.
One last group to take out. I've hinted at it already this thread. Those looking for the home game win, and looking for it to be under a circumstance that pressures the line down to make the Montreal win an utter ripoff.
A win tonight negates that group in every way.
Comment -
There's that Montreal turnover, just like clockwork.
If they lose the 10 point spread I'm glad you guys get the win on yet another swing, but it would be just plain unreal.
Montreal putting so many on edge. A failure here could cause a riot...lol.Comment -
Hi-drama.Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
MTL new QB, too.Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
Sherman about to blow his stack. He might kill someone.Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
TV says Montreal has lost 13 in a row and the longest losing streak is 14, Shreveport Pirates in 1994. I think it was their first season.Comment -
Well there you go.
You saw what it took to bring a play like that in this year's market, but realistically we know it was so much more.
I'm glad that's over.
We all said Montreal would cover spreads this year, and now it's beginning.Comment -
I hope that Watford clown starts next week.
I'll be backing up the Brinks truck to bet against that stiff.Comment -
Early Season Stacking Percentages Forecast
Here are this week’s early season forecasts. I may go ahead with a week 4 sharp forecast as it has actually, like the stacking forecast, done very well in recent early seasons (weeks 3 and 4) even though it really isn’t designed for that.
The early season stacking forecast:
It has Hamilton winning with 36 points to Saskatchewan’s 16 points. The spread has moved toward the forecast from the open of 5.5 to 6.5 and 7 in some places. The Total has also moved toward the forecast from 49 to 51.
We shouldn’t be surprised that the line moves toward the forecast in the first game, even with the forecast so far off market. Last week was a noticeable week for these and similar methods.
For the second game it has Ottawa winning with 36 points to Montreal’s 16 points. The spread, which also opened at 5.5, has moved towards the forecast to 7 points. The total of 48.5 has remained unchanged.
These first two games offer the same forecast, just like last week. We even have the same spread opener and move as well as very similar opening Totals (49 and 48.5). Last week I predicted this…
I was wrong; both games finished with the Favorite and the Under on the way to stacking money, and remember the first game had no spread prediction.
Look for last week’s prediction to come through this week. The market with its lines, numbers, and last week’s environment is obviously playing into this give and take with a second week in a row. Look for the games to finish opposite this week.
The early season stacking forecast has Edmonton winning with 30 points to Toronto’s 24 points. This spread opened at 5 and moved away from the forecast to 3.5 points and the Total opened under the forecast with 52.5 points and has moved passed the forecast to anywhere from 54.5 to 55.5 points.
For the final game, that forecast has Winnipeg winning with 40 or more points to British Columbia’s 17 points. That lined opened at 3.5 and pushed toward the forecast all the way to 6 points. The Total opened at 53 and also pushed upward, toward the forecast to 56.5. While I show 40 or more points, the raw score total was well over 57 points and I may produce another adjusted score category to compensate for these higher total forecasts.
These are the early stacking forecast predications for week 4.
Good Luck.
Comment -
KVB keep doing God’s work
Comment -
Despite the fact that some teams have only played two games and the rest only three games, I am going to post the early season sharp forecast. The numbers, including the raw numbers, are just plain silly…
Early season sharp forecast:
Hamilton 3, Saskatchewan 0; predicting the Underdog and Under.
Ottawa 13, Montreal 0; predicting the Favorite and Under.
Edmonton 24, Toronto 3; predicting the Favorite and Under.
Winnipeg 13 or 14, British Columbia 13; predicting the Moneyline Upset and Under.
There were some negative raw scores here and that’s very unusual, but of course some teams have only played two games. That means while next week is week 5, the sharp forecast will still be dealing with some teams that have only played 3 games. Remember, with almost any sport, we need four games to truly get the sharp forecast competing.
Good Luck.
Comment -
Thanks KVB. Hamilton it is!Comment -
On Hamilton as well. Let's start the CFL week off with a W!Comment -
Watford in already hahahaComment -
Let’s go HamiltonComment
