CFL 2018 Thread

[Coolcanuck79]

Yep, likely the only time all season we'll see them in #1. Then again, the other 3 teams aren't special so anything is possible.

Coolcanuck must be real happy right now. His team is first place in the East!

[Hngkng]

I have already placed on the Thursday game.
2.0 units on Saskatchewan +2.5 (there are 3.0 out there, but I don't want to create a new account).
Also 0.5 units on Saskatchewan to win.

https://cflpicks.weebly.com/week-1-byes.html

[Hngkng]

Adding under 25.5 first half too for 0.5 units

[Coolcanuck79]

Beautiful night for football here in the Nations capital. Going with Sask and possibly the over.

[Coolcanuck79]

Officially going with +3 -123 (2u), ML +124 (1u) and over 50 -110 for 1u.

[Hngkng]

Officially going with +3 -123 (2u), ML +124 (1u) and over 50 -110 for 1u.

Congrats on this; and to your Redblacks.
Wow did the Riders look awful, the line play on both sides looked like men vs boys.

[Coolcanuck79]

Wow, they surprised me tonight. I lost a bit but the over saved a otherwise bad night.

Although Ottawa looked solid, Sask looked lost on the defensive side of the ball. DB's not looking back at the play and getting burned left and right.

Now, they are facing Montreal next week and I'm looking forward to getting back on the green train provided Zack is back at qb.

[Hngkng]

Wow, they surprised me tonight. I lost a bit but the over saved a otherwise bad night.

Although Ottawa looked solid, Sask looked lost on the defensive side of the ball. DB's not looking back at the play and getting burned left and right.

Now, they are facing Montreal next week and I'm looking forward to getting back on the green train provided Zack is back at qb.

He is awful, his arm looks week. (Reason for the first INT by him)

I think I definitely overlooked the super short week (Riders played last Friday) vs a team that came off a bye week. I thought Ottawa would look rusty to start, but really it was the Riders that looked rusty.

[Art Vandelay]

He is awful, his arm looks week. (Reason for the first INT by him)

I think I definitely overlooked the super short week (Riders played last Friday) vs a team that came off a bye week. I thought Ottawa would look rusty to start, but really it was the Riders that looked rusty.

Yea, I think we all got blindsided by this one - the Zack injury didn't help. Let's roll with the Peg tomorrow night to get their first win!

[Hngkng]

I feel like Winnipeg -3.0 is a trap today.

[KVB]

I feel like Winnipeg -3.0 is a trap today.

Do we keep pressing Montreal? It's game one, it could have trap written all over it.

Maybe look to live trade when Montreal takes an early 1-0 lead...

Let's face it, this could be one of Montreal's best chances and I think after the week 1 failure it's a great shot.

This is a shit show waiting to happen and the Under has got to be popular with some groups.

It's two fold, the first game of the day starts that moneyflow and shows risk, on the other hand, when it comes to shit like Montreal, if the bird is going to get the worm, it's going to be the early bird.

Clearly, Montreal can't take the pressure of late and swing games. That is very likely to turn and as we approach week 5 we should see signs.

[Coolcanuck79]

I'm taking the bait and going with Winnipeg ML -145

[KVB]

I'm taking the bait and going with Winnipeg ML -145

A great way to get out of this ATS/ML losing streak is to cover the small spread and not win. It peels off the greedy.

In my opinion, with Montreal extended like they are, I don't think they need to peel off the greedy. The greedy have been hurt many times. Just look at my trading last year and live Montreal losses, just brutal to be greedy.

I believe that when it's Montreal's time, they will take an early lead and dominate the game. There will be no volatility in game and those going against Montreal live, first half, second half, etc. will be on the losing end.

This is ripe for a home game as well, it will not be a road game. That I am almost nearly certain...that is...nearly certain. Nearly certain tends to fail in extended markets but I have to believe Montreal is past that point.

To be clear, I don't think your being greedy Coolcanuck, but I think the plus points are even safer.

[Coolcanuck79]

I totally hear where your coming from KVB and I am starting to like MTL + the points but not at 3. I see it being a ~4 point game and thus I am considering buying up to 4.5 -150. Might be a perfect middle opportunity to nail both.

[Hngkng]

This could be financial suicide.
But doing Montreal +3.0 (2.0), and first half under 24.5 (0.5)

[KVB]

I know I try to give a sense of more control but I swear Montreal is like an auto play at home at this point.

I do make a stacking type forecast here and it has Winnipeg winning in a pretty big spread and the same with a public style gauge.

There is no way to make the sharp forecast without going back to last year and even then, it's a big spread.

I'm countering those, even though it's a non forecast based market read here with Montreal Alouettes +3 (-102) over Winnipeg Blue Bombers.

They could win, but I feel like one exit strategy could be to cover some ATS and chill out some of that streak breaking money. At that point, when the Montreal moneyline does payout, it might even be favored. It's a bit contrary to what I posted earlier, yet it does go along the same lines.

It's just a way to force a little patience and force some bettors into an even or vig lost day.

I'll stick with the spread here for the early season bet, and not try to fall into a greedy trap.

Hopefully, the the early bird gets the worm, at least spread wise.

[KVB]

Because of the propensity for Montreal to "break out" like I mentioned above, I am passing on the UNDER 48 tonight. That line has crept up and I consider that, under the market circumstances, to be a positive sign for Montreal ATS.

And where there's an ATS winner as 3 point dog, there's often a moneyline winner. If Montreal gives the home crowd a show for once, the OVER fits the story.

[KVB]

Soooo, after running a few numbers here and reading I just wrote, I went ahead with a Montreal +125 and OVER 48 (-110) two pick parlay that pays 3.2955 to 1.

If it fails, then if the lines show the same or better in future Montreal home games I will do this again.

[KVB]

Added Montreal +11.5 (-110) LIVE over Winnipeg.

[Coolcanuck79]

Well, Bookmaker would not take my +4.5 wager after I had already placed the Winnipeg ML earlier. Not sure if the software prevents bets of both sides or not but we'll see what the halftime spread is to see if it's worth a shot.

[Hngkng]

I don't even know what to say.
Im an idiot for betting on the Cleveland Browns of the CFL

[KVB]

Winnipeg is nearly going to bring the OVER by themselves in the first half...

[Coolcanuck79]

Not entirely surprising. Sometimes we overthink these games when the better team was obvious all along. Let's get your losses back on the late game.

I only have the WPG ML so no need to even consider the spread at ht.

Going to look into the late game now and supply a pick.

[Hngkng]

Hamilton +6.5?
That is what Im lking so far.

[KVB]

Montreal is favored in the second half, bettors are still taking them.

They look like they aren't trying.

That stacking forecast that saw the Winnipeg blowout basically has the second game a tie.

I'm holding off right now but the dog in game two is a potential play here and the +6.5 looks pretty fair.

[Coolcanuck79]

Yeah, I am on Hamilton +7 -120 (buying the hook)

EDM has not won at home vs HAM by more than 5 points since 2012 and HAM won 2 of those games outright. Also, the total is typically in the high 50's so I might put 1 unit on the over 56 -120

[Hngkng]

Nice 11 yard punt by Montreal
Add on a 10 yard penalty, it nets 1 yard

[KVB]

nice 20 yard punt by Montreal

WTF was that?

I thought he tried an onside punt or something. Seriously, these guys are just rubbing it in our faces. Just when it seems most bleak, they'll pop.

Just take this season as a single entity. We've lost the first game bounce, now the home chasers. A few more groups fall and Montreal gets something. It seems like they really might need a quarterback, among so many other things.

It's tough to watch and brutal for us bettors, whether you bet them or not.

Gives the league a bad name and image, I would think, but it's a part of every sport and season.

[KVB]

...I do make a stacking type forecast here and it has Winnipeg winning in a pretty big spread and...

That forecast, adjusted has Winnipeg winning with 36 or 37 points to Montreal's 13 or 14 points. You know I rarely past post forecasts, usually only for education purposes but also because when posting them I do it beforehand.

This is early season so it's not really that time to track but it's worth noting that the more precise the forecast gets the more confident that edge of the market gets. It changes bet sizes among other things.

It's one reason I haven't bought the second game's underdog. Stacking forecast confidence is pretty high right now, even though I wasn't sharing those numbers yet.

[KVB]

So for game two, that stacking forecast, with adjusted scores, has Edmonton winning with 27 points to Hamilton's 24 or 25 points. The raw scores have less than 2 points between them.

[KVB]

I think it's time to put some numbers out like that, for all of our benefit, even if it is with the understanding that it's still early season.

Truthfully, that and the early season sharp forecast have done well the last three years, I just posted very little of it and probably bet less...lol.

Win or lose against the numbers, I think it's worth tracking for the thread.

[Hngkng]

So for game two, that stacking forecast, with adjusted scores, has Edmonton winning with 27 points to Hamilton's 24 or 25 points. The raw scores have less than 2 points between them.

Definitely taking the Hamilton +6.5 (2.0), and under in the first half (0.5)

[Coolcanuck79]

I think it's time to put some numbers out like that, for all of our benefit, even if it is with the understanding that it's still early season.

Truthfully, that and the early season sharp forecast have done well the last three years, I just posted very little of it and probably bet less...lol.

Win or lose against the numbers, I think it's worth tracking for the thread.

Cheers!!! Your analysis is ALWAYS appreciated.

[KVB]

Agreed, I picked up Hamilton Tiger-Cats +6.5 (-108) over Edmonton Eskimos.

The money's fairly even, perhaps with some public money on the favorite, but there's pressure on this underdog. It may drop.

It's probably some fairly sharp market confidence.

I'll go with it.

[Coolcanuck79]

We're all on this one together. Let's cash this biatch!!!!