-
Comment -
The sharp forecast has Hamilton winning with 17 points to Saskatchewan’s 10 points. The stacking percentage forecast has Hamilton winning with 33 or 34 points to Saskatchewan’s 17 points. The non-predictive public gauge sees a much closer game with Hamilton winning by one point in a 49 point game.
Less sophisticated methods using averages and medians. See Hamilton winning, by about TD with Totals from the upper 20’s to the mid 35’s. Those methods, and the gauge, are in line with the sharp forecast for this game.
The line opened with Hamilton -11 and has ticked downward toward the sharp forecast, away from the stacking forecast. The same for the 51.5 opening Total ticking down to 51, toward all other numbers, but right at the stacking forecast.
Basically the public is on Saskatchewan but more money is coming in today. I will have some very good information soon and will add to this analysis.
This week everyone has played 4 games, so even though I think this first play is in trouble for the sharp forecast, I am excited because, against the spread, both the sharp and stacking forecasts look to beat the markets for profit this year...with only a .5 discrepancy against the market.Comment -
Thanks KVB.
Im gonna be on Saskatchewan +10.5, and small play on under 51.0Comment -
Tickets starting to come in on this game.
For the most part, we are looking at more tickets on the dog spread, but more money on the Hamilton's spread. It's the same for the moneyline. Bettors are taking small shots at the upset but they aren't eclipsing those favorite bettors in terms of dollar amount.
The Total is a little more split with more tickets on the Under, but the actual money is definitely on the Under.
The sharp forecast, and all those other numbers are with the public here. The stacking forecast is sidelined with the Total but goes rogue from the others in picking Hamilton.
Overall, my sources are seeing volume picking up the ratios staying about the same. Books are holding at that 11 now, but are starting to show pressure on the dog again. Both 5 D and Pinny showing plus odds on the favorite, trying to attract money, with 5D showing -11.5 (+105).
Heritage has blinked and gone to -10.5 (-106).
A little different type of information, but I am sharing some really good stuff here. After a few games, we'll get some volume averages and then determine which games are attracting the most volume.
Detailed volume analysis will be new to the CFL thread for 2018.Comment -
For some of you regulars, I'd like to PM you the forecasts ahead of time, instead of leaving you hanging with one game at a time in the thread. You can always check the Total Return Fund for any spread plays shortly after openers come out but otherwise info will come later in the week and one game at a time, like I'm doing today.Comment -
I will also field any market questions on the other games if you want to know if they are being bet early.
For example, obviously not nearly as many bets in yet, but those that are have been all over Winnipeg. We've seen that line move from a pick to -2.Comment -
Not going to go minute by minute, but those books looking for the favorite on the spread (mentioned a few posts ago) are starting to get it.
With the CFL, we can see some bets come in on the game, then see future games get hit, often it's the same guys making their plays, and we can test that by understanding why money is going where it's going.
Something this thread specializes in.Comment -
Thanks for the insight KVB.
I'm going with the +10.5 tonight.Comment -
Luke Tasker a game time scratchComment -
Well, everyone blinked, consistent with the sharp forecast, and all those other numbers. 5 Dimes trying so hard with -11(+108), Pinny and co down to -10 and Heritage even hitting -9.5 (-112).
I hope the numbers I posted, to some extent, give you an idea of why the line opened where it did, and the forecasts, along with the other info, helped to explained why the line moved to where it closes.
The Total dropped as well, but not much, and you can see that in the numbers.
I wish I had been able to get more into what groups are where, but we can hit that after the game one money falls and we start to anticipate the flow of money.
We still have no line for the swing game. Those bastards.
Last edited by KVB; 07-19-18, 06:34 PM.Comment -
Part of it in my opinion is the fact Tasker is now out. I think the fact Hamilton wants to establish a running game and both Def are fairly stout should transfer to a lower scoring game but turnovers and big plays can change that in a hurry. GL on your plays tonightComment -
I just love when the on the ground story lines up with the market activity. It doesn't always mean a winning bet, but it does help me to show by example and remind that it's not just what they bring, it's how the bring it.
And the story unfolds.
HngKng, thanks for chiming in there, any of that on the ground info is key, any word from practices, etc, helps us line up the activity.Comment -
Agreed, of course Tasker out will lead to Saskatch bets and Under plays.
For the spread, the pressure was there, and then they let the flood gates open.
Not a good sign for the underdog, to be honest, but it's game one. Also, getting that good number may not mean much, the CLF rarely middles which lead us to an 11 point game for a push of the open.
5 Dimes with the 11.5 and the hold on 11 may turn out to be the genius there, forcing bettors to lay for the +11.5.
Comment -
3-0 Saskatch, we're looking at both the Dog, and the Under.
You just have to believe one of those is going to change.
It's not what they bring, it's how they bring it.Comment -
TD Hamilton, lol.Comment -
Rooting for Saskatch here!!!!!! Keep it within the spread, embolden the public for the eventual take down!!! Don't take them down now!!!!
Push the 10 closer!!!!
Comment -
Anyone remember my posts about good vs. evil and how good rises back to beat, but not completely vanquish evil?
Remember how I talked about the favorite getting up to the spread, but failing to break through?
That one point was significant and we could have one of those situations on our hands.
It's not really actionable at this point for alive trade or anything, I'm just pointing it out.Comment -
5D hung a 5.5 Hamilton second half line, that didn't last long and Pinny, CRIS and BM came online at -4.5.
Everyone at 25.5.
I didn't like that -5.5 for our game bet, a little happy it dropped.Comment -
Masoli and company scrambling to get the lead back.
I think Masoli is going for a record number of consecutive 300 yard games tonight. I think he tied the record two weeks ago.Comment -
Riders defence has contained him real good the last 2 games. Basically Masoli can’t escape the pocket to do the damages.Comment -
This game might be more about the moneyline than the spread after all.
It just might.Comment -
Amazing value on +11.0 or +10.5 tonight. Great find gents!Comment -
Still the dog but they were stuffed, in a how they bring it moment, to keep the score at 51.
Some controversy here. I've been saying we don't see Total middles, haven't in ages, and now we have an Under 51.5 opener and the Over 50.5 online closer (juiced a bit at Pinny).
But the closer I use is from Vegas and my consensus still has a 51 point closing line.
If more incoming info doesn't change that, I will have 51 as the close in my records, showing a push against the close, but I am aware of the online marketplace and what it shows.
It was Saskatchewan that ended up with the 11 point win tonight.Comment -
unbelievable i felt Roughriders had value at over 500
and did not take it.
problem is I don't know enough about CFL teams.Comment -
That sharp forecast has Ottawa winning with 24 points to British Columbia’s 16 or 17 points. The stacking forecast has Ottawa winning with 27 or 28 points to BC’s 23 or 24 points. This is close to the non-predictive public gauge that shows Ottawa winning 27-24.
Less sophisticated methods also show a 6-8 point game with Totals around 40. This is in line with the sharp forecast, similar to last night, and I would expect, as the season grinds on, that we see more variance between the two.
The forecasts disagree again and the line opened at Ottawa -6.5 and has ticked upward toward the sharp forecast. The Total opened early at 53.5 and also ticked down to 53, towards all the numbers.
The volume is still relatively light and I’ll get more into those numbers a little later. Spread wise the bettors are fairly split but the money has come onto Ottawa this week. At the same time, even though we see no upset in the numbers, the closer games are yielding opportunities for the moneyline at this level and betters are looking for the upset moneyline.
This mitigates the spread pressure and we are even seeing the line pull back to -6.5. The books don’t want to pay +245 or +250 for the upset; they want to allow +225.
The Total is relatively split, with a few more tickets on the Under but know that there is pressure and the bigger money is on the Over. Remember that note about bigger money, and remember my note about a weak sharp forecast against the Totals, then understand when we see things like the OVER tonight come, and come all season long.
Again I haven’t had much time to get into why some of the pressures are there on the spread, considering only the sharp forecast sees the favorite, while the emboldened public from yesterday is coming off of their underdog spread bet outright winning.
What I see right now is money and tickets are on Ottawa, and at -6.5 it is more attractive. The market may be serving too purpose with the recent pull toward 6.5; one was to lessen the dog payout, the other to draw money on Ottawa.
In this situation, we often see Ottawa winning and not covering this spread. There is no bold play here, we aren’t at a tipping style point and the volume just isn’t there for us.
This year, bold plays are going to undergo a second level of scrutiny and patience, if they even get posted at all.
Comment -
I’m on Ottawa -6.5 tonight too. Should be a bounce back night for Harris. BC can’t be trusted on the road yet.Comment -
You know me, always looking over my shoulder. I feel like Ottawa could win and not cover, and that win would satisfy the bounce back, even for the TV announcers.
Last couple of weeks we've seen those forecasts run then fall.
It could be time for instant give and take. We have both forecasts disagreeing and given the last few weeks it could very easily be 1-1 for each forecast, ATS after game two.
They could also both go 0-2 against the moneyline this week, with a BC win.Comment -
5 Dimes hanging with that 7.5 teaser protection while the market tends toward 6.5 or 7.
Maybe we get the 7 point game tonight, like the 11 I mentioned last night.
And like the Total "middle" that I tried to get last week, that came last night.
Whether in coincidence or not, the market always reminds us to be patient.
Comment -
More bets coming in and there is pressure on the dog, we are seeing the line press down.
I maintain, based on my sources, that this is not traditional reverse line movement. Even if you subscribe to the protections I mention above, it's still a little awkward.
The books are taking money on that favorite moneyline. Not sure that's very sophisticated money.
If readers betting think taking the moneyline is safer if the sharp forecast predicts the spread favorite, be very careful. Some of these games are all or nothing.Comment
