CFL 2018 Thread

[Coolcanuck79]

Thanks KVB. I see a 31-17 type game.

Good Luck Canuck.

The money looks far more split then the tickets from my sample, but I feel like info is being withheld, again.

[KVB]

That's a reasonable score by compromising and getting a spread closer to the sharp forecast with a Total closer to the market and stacking forecast.

Another favorite would be a nice way for the cards to fall considering I see the market going either way here, with so many neutral right now.

Let's see how it tips.

[Hngkng]

I'm gonna try to do some back to back matchups research this weekend.

We already know it is usually a split, but I really want to look into the total of the games too.

[KVB]

Yeah, been messing around on SBR, and neglecting some back end CFL duties, lol.

Good Luck tonight on the Total HngKng, but as for you dog play...



I'm locked in at -9.5 early, maybe I win and you push...

[Hngkng]

We’re only 7 mins in, and this is by far the worst reffed game of the year.

[KVB]

Ok, so an update came through with the volume as well.

I knew there was something missing and volume was, as expected, higher.

For the most part the the Totals remained split but there is pretty heavy money on the Winnipeg spread, as indicated indicated above, as well as on the Winnipeg moneyline even though the public in general is more split on these two bets. There is also, from what I know, far more parlay action on Winnipeg. I do not have a teaser picture.

I see Winnipeg is up 10-0, and they need to break through that or it could be a long night. There are contrarian reasons, and decent ones, to take Toronto.

Yesterday, with Edmonton and Over, the heavier money and tickets paid out, let's see how the market falls here, maybe we see give and take but maybe we see something else.

With a Winnipeg cover, money starts stacking (note that would make the forecast 2-0 this week as well).

[Coolcanuck79]

Grabbing Toronto +12.5 Live.

[KVB]

Grabbing Toronto +12.5 Live.

[Coolcanuck79]

Might be changing my last post to "regret grabbing Toronto +12.5 Live"

They force the turnover, allow a TD and then get picked off the next series. WPG backers, congrats!

[KVB]

Wow, when they had the 3 point lead I thought they were good, then momentum shifted, then shifted right back.

CFL in action tonight.

I need to get back into these live markets, lol.

[Hngkng]

Man these Argos look bad.....

[KVB]

Winnipeg -4 at half and line doesn't budge.

When point spread lines don't budge it's usually the favorite, but not always.

[KVB]

5 D shows an opener of -3.5 on SBR odds, but I am not sure there were any trades at the level.

[Hngkng]

Winnipeg Blue Bombers -9.5 (-106) over Toronto Argonauts.

Congrats sir

Tonight I am going with the under 54 as my selection. BOL to all.

Did you manage to find 54.5? That is tough, Winnipeg blocked the punt in garbage time.

First half under 27.0
Small play on Toronto +10.0 too

Tough beat on the first half under. Stupid me out thought common sense on the Toronto +10.0. This is as dumb as betting on Montreal!

[Coolcanuck79]

Well, a push on the 54 and a loss on the Live play on Toronto +12.5. Knew as soon as I hit submit that it would be a regret.

[KVB]

Winnipeg coming through with authority and starting to develop a defense to go with that offense.

Remember though, it's a season of halves.

[KVB]

...For the most part the the Totals remained split but there is pretty heavy money on the Winnipeg spread, as indicated indicated above, as well as on the Winnipeg moneyline even though the public in general is more split on these two bets. There is also, from what I know, far more parlay action on Winnipeg. I do not have a teaser picture.

I see Winnipeg is up 10-0, and they need to break through that or it could be a long night. There are contrarian reasons, and decent ones, to take Toronto.

Yesterday, with Edmonton and Over, the heavier money and tickets paid out, let's see how the market falls here, maybe we see give and take but maybe we see something else.

With a Winnipeg cover, money starts stacking (note that would make the forecast 2-0 this week as well).

Winnipeg not only covered, they covered with authority.

Bettors are emboldened now, and both the sharp forecast and stacking forecast are 2-0 against the spread and monyeline this week. The non predictive public gauge was right last night, but faltered tonight. As the market matures, we expect that gauge to fall behind against the spread.

The point is that bettors are feeling good now, Winnipeg helped the market place rest at ease, made them feel confident and forecasts are winning.

We've seen this movie before.

I have the first game at 4 and then 9 PM eastern time tomorrow, and it's a two game set for the swing day. This is different flavor than the previous couple of blatant stacks, which settled in one game.

Analysts and sharp money may be looking for a settlement in game two, but let's be careful not to get caught looking ahead.

The market is building a story again, let's see if we can break it down with the action tomorrow.

[KVB]

The CFL Sharp forecast fund has picked the following plays…

Hamilton Tiger-Cats -4 (-107) over Ottawa Redblacks…

The sharp forecast has Hamilton winning with 24 points to Ottawa’s 13 or 14 points. The stacking forecast shows Hamilton winning with 31 points to Ottawa’s 17 or 19 points. The public gauge actually shows Ottawa narrowly winning 26-24.

Less sophisticated methods also show a close game, from a tie to Ottawa winning by a small margin in a lower scoring game in the low 40’s, similar the sharp forecast.

This line opened with Hamilton -4 and has moved all the way to -6 and we see -6.5 in some houses, towards the forecasts. The Total opened above the forecasts at 54.5 and is approaching 56, away from the numbers.

The numbers show Hamilton and the money coming in shows the same. The books may have some Hamilton parlay liability as well. The spread is becoming more split among the tickets, but the money remains on the Hamilton. Bettors are looking for an upset in each of the two games today, but the bigger money disagrees.

The Totals are split as well in the market place and there are few real good explanations for the movement. The books are getting Over bets and money as they see scores starting to light up, but it is by no means reaching contrarian type levels.

So here we go. The forecasts have won with the tickets and money behind them against the spread this week. They are 2-0 and are staring at the same emboldened situation as the first two games.

How the money doesn’t fall here I don’t know. I don’t want to look ahead to the next game, but sometimes we must. The next game sets up the same situation with the forecasts; tickets and money on Calgary, except bettors are taking shots at the Saskatchewan moneyline.

If Hamilton handles the business here in the first game, we could see Calgary with their first loss this season.

The market is certainly setting up for it, but we've seen this movie a couple of times in the early season.

[KVB]

As for the Total, we can see methods coming in just below the offered line with the exception of the sharp forecast, which is once again below the markets. I considered starting a CFL Sharp Forecast Inverse Totals Fund.

Here, we would fade the sharp forecast total predictions. The problem is that forecast seems to want far too many Unders, and I don’t see Overs going crazy over the near term. Again, as the market matures, I am gaining more insight into this situation...

The sharp forecast is predicting Unders in all four games this week. It is 0-2 with two Overs so far and the other numbers have been very close to the market.

I’ve warned against Totals and mentioned more than once about Overs overtaking the sharp forecast predictions of Unders.

Now we are seeing it. I can’t generate a Total play here but I can say with a pretty high degree of confidence that one of these games today goes Under.

If we see the sharp forecast get taken down, we likely see the Over pay in that game.

Things can change, but so far, even though we haven’t been betting it, I’ve had a pretty good pulse on the Totals markets.

Overall, from the simple look, we can see there have been two favorites and two Unders. As we look behind the curtain, we see the forecasts running on the spread, but Totals failing in the sharp forecast. Note that the other Total numbers have been pretty much at the market.

What a gift it would be to get Hamilton only to show us the “obvious” Calgary loss. But remember, a couple of weeks ago, I warned that, because of the ease that we got Montreal and BC, we would see a cat and mouse game over the next few weeks.

This could be it. Calgary is that team that handles the pressure, and I mentioned the natural settlement of Montreal simply covering against Calgary, because of both of their histories, being a big deal.

Well the 19.5 favorite just missed that one. In the interest of time I’m not going to search my own posts for the Totals analysis or the words about the cat and mouse game, but readers should understand where I am coming from with that analysis.

There is more information coming in and I will give a write up for game two in a bit.

As far as how this first game is brought, look for a misleading result, and remember, it doesn’t have to be the favorite in the first game to get a Calgary stumble in the second game.

If it looks like the favorite but flips to the dog at the end, big market trading money may be tricked into taking Calgary, only to join everyone else and the numbers.

If the market manages to sell Calgary, that wouldn’t bode well for Calgary.

[Coolcanuck79]

Going with over 55.5 in this one and Sask +7.5 in the late game.

[Hngkng]

I'm on Hamilton -6.0 in the first game.

[KVB]

Decent volume on this first game and tickets are starting to come in on Ottawa.

Along with the upset tickets, this Ottawa line may drop a little.

The Over is also getting hit with tickets and money, lending to the rise in the line.

Again, though, the bigger money appears to be on the Hamilton spread and moneyline, but the bettor are hitting Ottawa.

Perhaps less sophisticated bettors are just looking for the underdog, playing some sort of due factor.

Because of where we see the tickets, the story of a loaded Calgary/Saskatchewan swing game looks more realistic.

But let's not get caught looking ahead.

[KVB]

Going with over 55.5 in this one and Sask +7.5 in the late game.

I'm on Hamilton -6.0 in the first game.

Canuck looking ahead, but not a bad look at all.

I wouldn't jump on Calgary right now, that's for sure.

Good Luck HngKng.

You guys are betting into the story here, I like it.

[Hngkng]

Canuck looking ahead, but not a bad look at all.

I wouldn't jump on Calgary right now, that's for sure.

Good Luck HngKng.

You guys are betting into the story here, I like it.

I'm on Saskatchewan +7.5 too. But can't really tell if the fan side of me is convincing me into Saskatchewan. Saskatchewan's defence is dominant, and really did play well vs Calgary the last two meetings last year.

[Coolcanuck79]

I quite like the story!!!

Canuck looking ahead, but not a bad look at all.

I wouldn't jump on Calgary right now, that's for sure.

Good Luck HngKng.

You guys are betting into the story here, I like it.

[KVB]

Isn't the CFL fun?

Sorry for so many words and for repeating myself sometimes.

Remember, there is some thinking out loud as I type.

Maybe we try to put the story together in NCAAF, maybe a few select conferences.

[Hngkng]

Hopefully this is good bulletin board material:

https://ottawasun.com/sports/football/cfl/ottawa-redblacks/the-city-stinks-ottawa-redblacks-kyries-hebert-trash-talks-hamilton-and-ticats

[KVB]

Hopefully this is good bulletin board material:

https://ottawasun.com/sports/footbal...ton-and-ticats

As the Redblacks head into Hamilton for a Saturday afternoon game against the Ticats, Hebert’s targets are the city, the team, quarterback Jeremiah Masoli and linebacker Simoni Lawrence. Hebert, the 37-year-old linebacker in his first year as a Redblack, earlier this week told TSN 1200’s Lee Versage: “I don’t like Masoli. I hate Hamilton — the city stinks and the uniforms are ugly. Simoni is overrated and he’s a big talker.”

Asked to expand on his thoughts on Masoli, Hebert said: “That’s one quarterback I don’t like. He spoke to me like we were in the streets. I don’t live in the streets, I haven’t lived in the streets in a long time. He spoke to me like he knew me. I didn’t like that.”

[KVB]

Is it really 6-5?

Interesting, showing the dog and the Under. That result would be a bit of a settlement for this week already.

There is good volume on this game.

I want to doubt it stays both underdog and Under, but with such a low score, it makes it look like the favorite is going to pull through.

Everything seems too easy for a two game settlement day but if Ottawa settles, who knows with Calgary.

[Hngkng]

Is it really 6-5?

Ya, both defences have been tough. Idiot kicker missed a 13, and 27 yard FG for Hamilton.

[Coolcanuck79]

What a disaster for my over.

Taking a shot on Hamilton -4 2h

[KVB]

...The Totals are split as well in the market place and there are few real good explanations for the movement. The books are getting Over bets and money as they see scores starting to light up, but it is by no means reaching contrarian type levels....

Over fever must have got on a bit. The high line moved up and that whole situation was a little strange. Books tried to create some kind of action and Over bettors, emboldened, bit.

[KVB]

Is it really 6-5?

Interesting, showing the dog and the Under. That result would be a bit of a settlement for this week already.

There is good volume on this game.

I want to doubt it stays both underdog and Under, but with such a low score, it makes it look like the favorite is going to pull through.

Everything seems too easy for a two game settlement day but if Ottawa settles, who knows with Calgary.

...If we see the sharp forecast get taken down, we likely see the Over pay in that game...

I need to clarify, this is sticky. I made a mistake here. If the sharp forecast ATS gets taken down, in the give and take we expect the Total to pay. The sharp forecasts predict all Under, so Under dog and Under is actually reasonable, and again settles the favorite and Overs.

I messed up there in my posting.

Again, hard to believe it stays underdog and Under because of what they are showing, but the probability is there.

These are essentially mixed signals.

The market is not telling much, even though the first game result seems set.

The CFL is tough but for those looking ahead to Calgary for the dog, they may be in trouble.

There has been another change, the underdog moneyline money shifted and both the bettors and the money agreed on the upset.

In my earlier post we saw the bigger money looking at the favorite. It has been eclipsed.

The market participants are looking for the upset, slightly looking for the Over, and the spread is well split in this first game.

[KVB]

This feels like Hamilton failure more than anything else, as opposed to any great Ottawa play.

[Coolcanuck79]

This feels like Hamilton failure more than anything else, as opposed to any great Ottawa play.

Agreed