CFL 2018 Thread

[Hngkng]

Wow, if it doesn't go over, with that drop, I think we've seen our bad beat for the Over bettors.

Unreal.

Edmonton now has to get a TD, to bring the Over.

Wonder if we will get another classic Mike Reilly drive

We getting as many turnovers as a Johnny Manziel appearance!

[KVB]

This was meant for this thread when BC missed the two point convert to make it 27-20

Well BC didn't stop, that's not good.

It could be 27-27 before you know it.

lol

[KVB]

Wonder if we will get another classic Mike Reilly drive

We getting as many turnovers as a Johnny Manziel appearance!

At this point it's a bad beat for the loser of the Total, period.

[Hngkng]

damn that sucks, another collapse which we're on the wrong side of again

Feels like all the recent losses have been major collapses in the second half

[KVB]

30 points already first half.

Honestly, I like my spot here. If it is the Under, I expect it to be very disappointing, bad beat fashion for the over bettors.

They need to be shaken, not stirred.

I had 54.5 but much of the public may have had 54.

The public got lucky with a push here. The public is satisfied, they still have faith in all the talking heads that screamed Over, shit, they were that close, a few times.

The expectation of disappointment seems to have come to have panned out.

This is because it's not what they bring, it's how they bring it.

Only when you can accept what is being brought will you be able to truly appreciate how it is being brought.

[KVB]

damn that sucks, another collapse which we're on the wrong side of again

Beating the closer with these sharp forecast plays, every time.

But another fail against both the moneyline and the spread. We are doing the right things, it will go our way. It takes patience.

And I thought these constant under forecasts would be toast, here they are carrying their weight.

[Hngkng]

Beating the closer with these sharp forecast plays, every time.

But another fail against both the moneyline and the spread. We are doing the right things, it will go our way. It takes patience.

And I thought these constant under forecasts would be toast, here they are carrying their weight.

Oh for sure I feel like we're on the right side of these, just a tough stretch right now that sucks.

Anyways, congrats on those that took the under, I am not sure why I didn't take the under after stating it seemed like a great contrary play to the public.

See you all tomorrow for the next game.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Wow, if it doesn't go over, with that drop, I think we've seen our bad beat for the Over bettors.

Unreal.

Edmonton now has to get a TD, to bring the Over.

Interesting end-game, re: the Total. Yeah, the BC wr dropped the TD that would have taken it over.

After BC's interception, the punter kicked it into the end-zone. Listen closely to what the announcer said. He wasn't TRYING to score the rouge. He was TRYING to pin BC inside the 10, which would have given EDM an extremely long field. That rouge made it 31-23.

Really could have wound up 30-23. Very close to totals which were 53.5 up to 54.5. Not claiming there was a right side. Just stating that these ATS results are on a knife's edge. And that the punter actually gaffed by kicking the single.

[KVB]

Chucky...

...That CFL Under is going to be one dirty ass play because it's not what they bring, it's how they bring it. In fact, there was already an early TD.

But only when you can accept what is being brought can you then appreciate how it is being brought...

[Hngkng]

Interesting end-game, re: the Total. Yeah, the BC wr dropped the TD that would have taken it over.

After BC's interception, the punter kicked it into the end-zone. Listen closely to what the announcer said. He wasn't TRYING to score the rouge. He was TRYING to pin BC inside the 10, which would have given EDM an extremely long field. That rouge made it 31-23.

Really could have wound up 30-23. Very close to totals which were 53.5 up to 54.5. Not claiming there was a right side. Just stating that these ATS results are on a knife's edge. And that the punter actually gaffed by kicking the single.

Really 2 mistakes on that play.
1) BC's punter didn't pin them deep, Edmonton gave up 1 point to get to the 35 yard line.
2) Edmonton's returner ran around the endzone killing a good 7-9 seconds when they need a TD regardless.

[danshan11]

My CFL lines for this week

8/9	Eskimos		-5
8/9	Lions		55
8/10	Tiger Cats		2
8/10	Blue Bombers		54.5
8/11	Alouettes		49
8/11	Redblacks		-13

[danshan11]

I will post them before they come out next week once the weekend is over

[Coolcanuck79]

Glad I salvaged the under 54.5 last night and only lost a bit on the EDM ML juice.

Hamilton +5.5 looks really good tonight.

[KVB]

The CFL Sharp Forecast Fund has picked up the following plays...

Winnipeg Blue Bombers -4 (-110) of Hamilton Tiger-Cats…

The sharp forecast shows Winnipeg winning with 33 points to Hamilton’s 10 points. The stacking forecast has Winnipeg winning with 30 points to Hamilton’s 20 points. The non-predictive public gauge also has Winnipeg at roughly 30-26.

Less sophisticated methods using season averages and medians show Winnipeg winning by as low as 10 points to as high as 20 points in scores in the upper 40’s.

The line opened with Winnipeg -4 and moved toward the forecasts to -5.5 on clear early Winnipeg pressure. This line opened low but the originators may have been taking into account Hamilton’s last game and its effect on the public.

The sharp forecast proceeds a little more cautiously than the other two, especially in situations like last week in Montreal where it seeks confirmation of Hamilton’s greatness. This may account for the extra credit given in the stacking forecast and most certainly accounts for the close public gauge.

The Total opened, like last night, above the forecasts, and the gauge, and has ticked upward, away from all the numbers. The public seeks the Over and early indications show the money the same way; that will change a bit.

I can identify some groups taking the Under, that will be large money that I expect to counter the public. I’m passing on this Total, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they light it up and take down that large money.

There are strong metrics that indicate an upset in this game. It could be that the public is right in seeing a close game. The inevitable down tick of Winnipeg and Hamilton with receivers back could be heading upward.

This could be the game that makes the statement and we do see metrics that are in line increasing this possibility.

Winnipeg could be a juggernaut, they have the stats, and even though the CFL Sharp Forecast Fund has the favorite here, I am going to make my second bold play against that backdrop for this thread.

I have picked up Hamilton Tiger-Cats +190 over Winnipeg Blue Bombers.

The CFL thread is one set of plays, as always, the difference this year is that I am showing the CFL Sharp Forecast Fund when the lines open instead of at each write up.

I can’t win both of these bets, but that doesn’t mean that both the Sharp Forecast Fund and the CFL Thread Tracking can’t both profit by season’s end.

We've seen it before, that's for sure.

Good Luck.

[Coolcanuck79]

Gl kvb!

the sharp forecast shows winnipeg winning with 33 points to hamilton’s 10 points. The stacking forecast has winnipeg winning with 30 points to hamilton’s 20 points. The non-predictive public gauge also has winnipeg at roughly 30-26.

Less sophisticated methods using season averages and medians show winnipeg winning by as low as 10 points to as high as 20 points in scores in the upper 40’s.

The line opened with winnipeg -4 and moved toward the forecasts to -5.5 on clear early winnipeg pressure. This line opened low but the originators may have been taking into account hamilton’s last game and its effect on the public.

The sharp forecast proceeds a little more cautiously than the other two, especially in situations like last week in montreal where it seeks confirmation of hamilton’s greatness. This may account for the extra credit given in the stacking forecast and most certainly accounts for the close public gauge.

The total opened, like last night, above the forecasts, and the gauge, and has ticked upward, away from all the numbers. The public seeks the over and early indications show the money the same way; that will change a bit.

I can identify some groups taking the under, that will be large money that i expect to counter the public. I’m passing on this total, but i wouldn’t be surprised if they light it up and take down that large money.

There are strong metrics that indicate an upset in this game. It could be that the public is right in seeing a close game. The inevitable down tick of winnipeg and hamilton with receivers back could be heading upward.

This could be the game that makes the statement and we do see metrics that are in line increasing this possibility.

Winnipeg could be a juggernaut, they have the stats, and even though the cfl sharp forecast fund has the favorite here, i am going to make my second bold play against that backdrop for this thread.

I have picked up hamilton tiger-cats +190 over winnipeg blue bombers.

The cfl thread is one set of plays, as always, the difference this year is that i am showing the cfl sharp forecast fund when the lines open instead of at each write up.

I can’t win both of these bets, but that doesn’t mean that both the sharp forecast fund and the cfl thread tracking can’t both profit by season’s end.

We've seen it before, that's for sure.

Good luck.

[Hngkng]

Let me bet $1 on Winnipeg for you guys :P

[KVB]

Quick rundown.

Public, as expected is hitting the Hamilton spread but the bigger money disagrees. This is exactly what is shown in my three sets of numbers, the forecasts and the gauge.

Same thing with the moneyline as it shows Hamilton tickets, but there is bigger money on Winnipeg. I like that spread of bigger money and targets the money I intended to take down.

Both the spread and moneyline have moved, in favor of, not the tickets, but the money being placed.

This is classic RLM, or reverse line movement, in the marketplace. The market seems to have peaked at -6.5 and may settle at -6.

In general, this bodes well for the favorite bet, but not so well for my underdog bet. This game is not "in general" and I wouldn't be surprised if this shift fails, and there is an upset.

I have neither by phone, or a visual, any type of parlay exposure report. I just don't know.

For that Total, the tickets are pretty much even but we see far, far more money on the Over and it shows in the marketplace.

Last night, that contrarian Total paid and I will pass on it tonight, as I continue to expect the sharp forecast Total predictions to slide a bit. A condition that hasn't exactly happened yet.

Essentially, the money is racing for the favorite and Over here, the classic foundation of a contrarian play, and that doesn't seem to be changing. If the public were on the same side of that money on any of the bets (ATS, ML, Totals) then we could be looking at a more one sided market.

What makes it strong from that contrarian perspective is that we see the bigger money on the other side of the public. This, along with everyone on one side, make up two situations where solid contrarian plays develop.

The books, from my perspective are rooting for Hamilton in the upset and an Under.

Let's see which one they get.

[KVB]

Dude, this total is ridiculous.

It is so lopsided, just like last night, except this time the tickets are more even.

These are markets of give and take and while I would not consider taking the Over here, I am not willing to press the Under play.

I smell a trap.

[Hngkng]

Dude, this total is ridiculous.

It is so lopsided, just like last night, except this time the tickets are more even.

These are markets of give and take and while I would not consider taking the Over here, I am not willing to press the Under play.

I smell a trap.

I feel like the public again is ALL over the over, based on media previews, and what people in forums say.

Under may be another great public fade.

[KVB]

I won't do it, it just happened and we were lucky to get it. Or that's how it looked.

So yeah, the Under probably hits...

[Hngkng]

Oh classic Rod Black

Rod Black: Ate up a lot of the clock on that drive
Duane Forde: 3 mins 30 seconds haha

[KVB]

Oh classic Rod Black

Rod Black: Ate up a lot of the clock on that drive
Duane Forde: 3 mins 30 seconds haha

[KVB]

Well, Hamilton scored first, do I really need to post a shark for my bold play?

lol.

[Hngkng]

That almost looked like the butt fumble

[KVB]

[KVB]

Harris with one helluva run there, playstation style spin moves.

[KVB]

So here we go.

Winnipeg now covering the spread and Hamilton needs a touchdown to win and bring the the Over.

[Hngkng]

Looks like some pushed, some won, some lost with a 6 point bombers win

[KVB]

I was at risk of losing both there, until the FG.

I'll take it.

That Under paid tonight, the public didn't get so lucky this time.

[KVB]

The CFL Sharp Forecast Fund has picked up the following plays...

Ottawa Redblacks -13.5 (-110) over Montreal Alouettes…

The sharp forecast has Ottawa winning with 34 or 36 points to Montreal’s 13 or 14 points. The stacking percentages forecast shows Ottawa winning with 34 or 36 points to Montreal’s 16-17 points. The public gauge has Ottawa winning 33-17.

Less sophisticated methods using season averages and medians show Ottawa with the same 30 or 33 points with Totals in the mid 40’s.

The line opened with Ottawa -13.5 and has moved toward all the numbers to 14 and even pressed to 14.5 in some places. The Total opened at 49.5 and has ticked to the forecast at 50 to 51 points.

Just when the sharp forecast is correct against two Totals in a row, in contrarian fashion even, the Totals market aligns directly with it for the swing game, lessening the look for a bet.

The sizeable spread, from what I can see, has split the tickets but the money has pushed towards Ottawa, consistent with the line movement. The moneyline is less split, with the public taking shots at the upset while the overwhelming majority of money is on the favorite to win.

When it comes to the Total, the public is pressing for their Over but the bigger money sits Under not nearly as extreme from split.

I have information that there is parlay exposure on Montreal, to a degree and this may make sense as that spread is more than two American football TD’s.

Like I said, our Total look is a bit spoiled as the market is in agreement with Forecast for the swing game. I think the public, and Johnny Football, see an over again, regardless of who contributes this week but there is not quite enough indication to make a bold play.

This is the CFL and even though we saw a come from behind upset in the first game this week, the Hamilton upset was sold to sharp groups, and that money tends to come back. Is it ready to bounce with a Montreal upset?

It’s too risky to shoot for even though we know Johnny Football will eventually win a game. Last week looked so horrible that, just as Hamilton let down the bettors after a blowout win, Montreal may surprise on the other side following that same blowout loss.

On that same note, notice the alignment in the forecasts. They don’t’ just have Ottawa covering the spread; they have Ottawa, at least, with roughly the same score. This type of alignment can fall, we’ve seen it, but I am not sure we have the volume for such an upset, even if we do have a look at a spot type play.

That said, Johnny Football brings volume and there may be volume I am not picking up on in my sources. I’ll update with any changes I see or hear.

I am glad the CFL Sharp Forecast Fund has the better number here, but again, in the CFL that usually doesn’t make that much of a difference. In some cases, this year has already shown results to be much closer to the spreads than usual as the sharp forecast continues to beat the closing line.

Good Luck whatever you choose.

[Hngkng]

I took Ottawa -8.5 FH

All the best to everyone!

[Hngkng]

Good start for Johnny football, no interception on the first drive

[KVB]

I took Ottawa -8.5 FH

All the best to everyone!

Good Luck HngKng, a little nervous how all those numbers line up on Ottawa, and how we think Montreal must improve, so that game line is looking larger and larger.

The spread situation changed a little here as final tickets and money hit the Ottawa spread.

That last batch of volume changed the parlay exposure as well, putting it onto Ottawa more significantly than I thought it would.

I hate to give some of this info after the game has started but like I said, it can be used in post game analysis as well.

[Hngkng]

my reasoning is I expect another fast start from Ottawa, and still don't trust Johnny. As for only FH, I dont want to get back doored haha

[Hngkng]

This Trevor Harris guy must be the most frustrating QB for us all year!