CFL 2018 Thread

[Hngkng]

Im going on Edmonton -10.0 FH

[danshan11]

Hop in time-machine. Bet it now.

I took it at 53 and told KVB why when I did

[KVB]

Why did you not take it at 53?

I don't remember seeing it at 53, only 52, and who says the sharp forecast didn't make a buy?

I don't post everything, but I did post that I wasn't buying Sharp Forecast Totals from the open. I expected them to falter a bit. So no, I didn't buy.

The Fund is dealing with spread bets, and this thread is dealing with market reads. I gave up 1.5 points off of the 52 in a trade for time and information to reach regressed thresholds for a buy.

A lot money will pass during this last hour, even though limits were raised hours ago. There is a reason for that.

I could have paid -125 or so for 51, and considered it, but the sharp forecast sees a game in the mid 40's, so I'm taking the 50.5.

[KVB]

I took it at 53 and told KVB why when I did

Good number, let's see if it comes into play.

[KVB]

Im going on Edmonton -10.0 FH

I hope they smash them, but Montreal has a way of covering the big spreads in these situations.

It's a decent shot but even late first half antics aren't ruled out in this league.

Good Luck HngKng!!

[danshan11]

Its ok if you want to go around making people believe in sharp wind forecasts and how books are using manipulation techniques on people and whatever else but the reality is buy cheap.

you buy a 1000 games at 53 -110 that close at 53 -110 you win 500 and lose
you buy 1000 games aat 53 -110 that close at 53 -138 you win 560ish and win
it is that simple has nothing to do with wind or whos money is going where or how many times a sharp leaned on a glass coffee table and it did not break.

[danshan11]

most people over value an injury but the 53 was the kicker that made me bet since I had 49.5, 52.5 would have been a no bet!

Post #737 on 8-15

[danshan11]

MY CFL Lines for this week

date	Team	odds	my line
	Team
8/17	Redblacks		54
8/17	Blue Bombers		-6
8/18	Lions		53
8/18	Argonauts		-3
8/18	Alouettes		49.5
8/18	Eskimos		-16
8/19	Stampeders		-7
8/19	Roughriders		50

post 718 on 8-12

[danshan11]

KVB you have been welcoming to me and i really appreciate that. I want to just leave it at that, we disagree. I feel different than you and got a little taken back by your be patient learn study comments, I am a NERF not a NOOB, but anyway thanks for the replies and good luck and I will keep posting my lines for the week, hopefully it can help some people to win a couple more a week.

[Hngkng]

KVB you have been welcoming to me and i really appreciate that. I want to just leave it at that, we disagree. I feel different than you and got a little taken back by your be patient learn study comments, I am a NERF not a NOOB, but anyway thanks for the replies and good luck and I will keep posting my lines for the week, hopefully it can help some people to win a couple more a week.

Definitely a great place to talk CFL, and odds!
We’re starting a bit slower his year. But last year we got real hot by labour day

[danshan11]

Definitely a great place to talk CFL, and odds!
We’re starting a bit slower his year. But last year we got real hot by labour day

I am here to talk and love the bet game so hit me up ask tell or guide me, I want it all!

[KVB]

The CFL Sharp Forecast Fund has picked up the following plays...

Calgary Stampeders -7 (-110) over Saskatchewan Roughriders…

The sharp forecast has Calgary winning with 24 points to Saskatchewan’s 8 points. The stacking forecast has Calgary winning with 33 or 34 points to Saskatchewan’s 10 points. The public gauge has Calgary winning 26 to 14.

Less sophisticated methods using season means and medians give Calgary a 20 point or so win with Totals in the mid 30’s.

The line opened with Calgary -7 and has shown a little pressure in the market as if it could for the first time, move away from the forecast. It’s about time, but the market is swayed. The Total opened at 48.5 and has ticked to 47 at some houses, towards the forecasts.

I am preparing to head out for a week, Tahoe and Vegas, and am not sure what kind of update I will give in the afternoon.

Let me briefly rundown the week’s results. The sharp and stacking forecasts have failed against the spread in all three games this week. They have failed on the moneyline in two of the three games this week.

Both Forecasts have Calgary to win and cover the spread. I mentioned that stat about the sharp forecast not losing 3 games against the moneyline, basically ever.

We have a story, Calgary is under a little pressure here, but nothing they can’t handle. I see some early bets and money on Saskatchewan and Under. The bets on Saskatchewan can’t be ruled out as an attempt to manipulate the market, from my evidence.

Those Under bets, however, are expected. We have a Totals story as well with streak breaking bettors getting paid and the sharp forecast failing in all three games against Totals this week. Under money is looking for settlement on both of those fronts.

Back to the story of the spread; we once again have both the obvious 6 straight underdogs covering, but it is at the same time that the forecasts, notably the sharp one, have failed in all six games as well.

Here we go again with the stacking story and readers that have been following along have seen this before, across multiple leagues and several times earlier in the thread.

I believe the sharp forecast wins here, or possibly pushes the spread. It would be quite a market move if Saskatchewan were to win this game. If I am wrong about early line manipulation, and we see a trend on Saskatchewan during the day, I will buy more Calgary at -6.5.

I will be discussing, in Nevada, whether or not I will be able to post the sharp forecast selections at the market open on Monday mornings. There is an issue with publicly beating the closing line to such an extreme. In fact, the extreme is every time. This is a concern.

[KVB]

I am in Lake Tahoe and we are stuffing the books incrementally, so these are two bold plays for the thread, with Calgary -6.5 (-110) and -240 over Saskatchewan. Am on mobile so no actual bold type here..lol. Good luck

[Hngkng]

I’m on under 48.0

all the best to you all

[Coolcanuck79]

Nothing has worked for me this week so trying something else. 2 team teaser, CGY -.5 and under 54.

[danshan11]

will anyone post their lines this week, I am gonna post mine in about an hour.

[danshan11]

8/23	Eskimos		0
8/23	Tiger Cats		56
8/24	Argonauts		-7
8/24	Alouettes		48
8/25	Blue Bombers		53.5
8/25	Stampeders		-8
8/25	Roughriders		50
8/25	Lions		-3

[danshan11]

also I forgot to post up my power rankings you guys are free to use them, I hope they help you win a few

Stampeders	-9.336
Tiger Cats	-4.326
Blue Bombers	-5.555
Redblacks	-2.846
Eskimos	-5.571
Roughriders	-0.233
Argonauts	0.668
Lions	-0.891
Alouettes	5.823

[KVB]

I am in Lake Tahoe and we are stuffing the books incrementally, so these are two bold plays for the thread, with Calgary -6.5 (-110) and -240 over Saskatchewan. Am on mobile so no actual bold type here..lol. Good luck

Brutal.

[danshan11]

Alouettes U51 is my first play waiting for lines to move a bit!

[Hngkng]

Manziel is our this week. Pimpkin to start.

[KVB]

The sharp forecast shows Edmonton winning with 31 or 33 points to Hamilton's 19 or 20 points. The stacking forecast has a tie, with each team scoring 24 or 25 points, and it gives Edmonton the slight moneyline edge in the raw score. The public gauge has Edmonton slightly winning at about 27-26.

I will be traveling, in Vegas, and likely a bit occupied so I will not have much analysis but I will have the forecasts posted before game time.

Let's see how the bounce back after last weeks market collapse.

[Hngkng]

I’m on Hamilton -3.5. All the best

[KVB]

The sharp forecast has Toronto winning with 38 or 39 points to Montreal’s 33 or 34 points. The stacking forecast has Toronto winning with 31 points to Montreal’s 23 or 24 points. The public gauge has Toronto winning 28-20.

[icon]

The sharp forecast has Toronto winning with 38 or 39 points to Montreal’s 33 or 34 points. The stacking forecast has Toronto winning with 31 points to Montreal’s 23 or 24 points. The public gauge has Toronto winning 28-20.

wow, I don't think scoring will be anything near those numbers (in the first line).

Montreal has 7 new players starting tonight.

I have Toronto -5.5 (bet early at Pinny expecting the line to move up, it didn't).

[danshan11]

the sharp forecast has 80 points and the line is 52, i think the sharp forecast needs a tuneup

[Hngkng]

Im on Toronto -5.5

[KVB]

The sharp forecast has Winnipeg winning with 27 or 28 points to Calgary’s 22 or 23 points. The stacking forecast has Calgary winning with 24 or 25 points to Winnipeg’s 22 or 23 points. The public gauge has Calgary winning 30-24. The sharp forecast has Saskatchewan winning with 27 or 28 points to British Columbia’s 22 or 23 points. The stacking forecast has Saskatchewan winning with 24 points to British Columbia’s 22 or 23 points. The public gauge has Saskatchewan winning 27-24.

[Coolcanuck79]

Rolling with Winnipeg +9.

[KVB]

Both games there, on the iPad in a Vegas so spacing not great. Good Luck today.

[KVB]

the sharp forecast has 80 points and the line is 52, i think the sharp forecast needs a tuneup

Lol, there will be variance and when a number of games are under our belt we will look at the bigger picture, much more than an individual CFL Total in mid season.

[KVB]

Rolling with Winnipeg +9.

Like it, have it in the Fund at open..Good Luck

[Coolcanuck79]

Like it, have it in the Fund at open..Good Luck

Good luck to you too and have fun in Vegas. Would have joined but just got back from a week on the road for work. Was there last time it was at the Nugget and it was a great time.

[Hngkng]

Geez I feel bad for you guys. Correct side, but an outright collapse in the end

[danshan11]

Lol, there will be variance and when a number of games are under our belt we will look at the bigger picture, much more than an individual CFL Total in mid season.

Variance has nothing to do with a 30 point off the line model, that is not good dude, maybe you can clarify it but if I was off any game with my model by 30 points, I would very gently and kindly throw my model in the recycle bin, with a quick empty of it and confirm I want to permanently delete the files.