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Yeah I agree, and mentioned that this Total is splitting the bettors and I think it is doing a good job.
Good Luck Canuck!
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Johnny Football!Comment -
thanks for the link, I read it and can you tell me what you wanted me to get from it, so maybe I can read it again seeing what you are pointing out specific to me, thanks KVB much appreciatedComment -
Found a little background on MTL QB Pipkin. Not a total unknown. Almost made the Ariz Cardinals NFL roster:
Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
The purpose of the line isn't always to split the money so books can just profit from vig.
Positions get taken.
A sharp line may very well be one that accomplishes the goal of bookmaker, what ever that may be.Originally posted by KVB
Some see a score land close to a number then after seeing that result claim the line was "sharp."
This is incorrect and dangerous thinking.Comment -
A quick summary of the market with this first game.
The volume isn't the greatest and I am working on that volume metric I keep promising...lol.
The line pretty much split the money on the spread with the public liking BC a little more.
The moneyline seems to indicate that the public is backing the BC win streak but I see a seriously lopsided market in terms of the money line. Almost all the money is on BC. I mentioned that the move to 3 or so may have been moneyline driven, this appears to be true.
I realize they lead by ten points, 17-7, but it looks like the market has an opportunity to get out of a BC win streak without paying too many streak breakers. This is ideal for the books.
The sharks are out for BC.
In terms of the Total the numbers are very split. A well place Total to split the money or sideline some groups.
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The sharp forecast has Edmonton winning with 33 or 34 points to Montreal’s 10 points. The stacking forecast shows Edmonton winning with 39 points to Montreal’s 13 or 14 points. The public gauge has Edmonton winning 33-19.
Less sophisticated methods using season numbers show Edmonton winning by 15 to 20 points in a range of low scores, from 35 to 47 points.
The line opened with Edmonton -16.5 and has moved to as far as -18, towards the forecasts. This time the public gauge is lower, but even the lower opener was hit hard. At this point, I see a trend with the public buying underdog, but the bigger money may have already spoked, spiking the already high line.
The Total opened at 52, with the stacking forecast and the gauge, and we are back to a condition where the sharp forecast is lower and separating itself from the other numbers. Could the sharp forecast be revealing inefficiency in the Total line?
From my data and samples, I can see that the public is on the Over but the bigger money is on the Under.
In both the side and Total markets, the bigger money, from my back end samples, is with the sharp forecast and the market movement supports this. That movement in the Total was fairly significant as the line went on to and through 51.
The big money is speaking and I can’t make too many connections with this first game today to gives an indication of moneyflow. I can see from other metrics that sharp groups looking at streak riding and streak breaking indicators will hit the Under as well.
This money may come later, and I will mention it if we see it. This money is sharp and will win over the long haul. In fact, with that move through 51, this money may have already spoken, at least partially.
Let’s see how this first game pans out and I’ll examine what we see in the markets then.
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Toronto comes out favored by .5 points.
They can cover that second half, and the game spread, without winning.
Or they can win the game.
I made a protective market call here and picked up Toronto Argonauts -125 2nd half over BC Lions.
This is only the second bold play since we left the early season we started running the forecasts.
Good Luck
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I think the books dreamed they could have even money on both sides of every game but they cant and they dont. so what they do is they do what all sharp bettors and that is they beat the line except they use vig to do it. Books normally dont take positions on games and would prefer not to do so BUT they still have nothing to worry about if they do because they got the vig to clean up any mess.
Bookmakers have one goal have equal money on both sides or have a juice edge on a game that is it, there is normally not a game goal by the bookmaker. they are winning with juice not taking positions on games.
I think dangerous is to think the score or result has anything to do with the line at all. No one knows the outcome on 1 game but they know the probability over 4 zillion same scenario games and add some juice and you make money.Comment -
Those Redblacks are a scrappy bunch,no doubt will win another bye.Comment -
Dude, it's the part of that post that was in bold...lol.
Bookmaking is a business and there is a long term to it.
If you are already having some trouble, then go read Plato's Parable of the cave.
It's not that gamblers don't know, it's just that so much of what they know is wrong.
Be patient Dan, this is all, as I always say, best taught by example.
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C'mon, I need one more FG in this game for the Over!Comment -
How did he fumble that (untouched) after the INT. They would have had the 3 pts, easy!Comment -
Wow, a BC field goal would give them a two point win, giving me both bets.
Late turnover appears to spoils it.
If Toronto wins the game, that would be two fails against the moneyline this week for the sharp forecast.
In the last three years, the sharp forecast has never failed against the moneyline three times in a week.
The spread is different, but the moneyline has always had 2 of 4 successes or better.
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That was a tough oneComment -
I think we should just leave it as agree to disagree. I am afraid you are living under the same storm cloud that 99.9% of the betting world is and that is believing you are sharper than the entire betting community and that lines are not sharp. this system that system this trend that trend those are all fallacies at best. I mean no disrespect but the only thing I respect and trust is beating the line and anything else is "yankees play good at home" "everytime yankees favored by -200 or better they win" "so much more money on the Yankees" those things are 10000000000% BS brotherDude, it's the part of that post that was in bold...lol.
Bookmaking is a business and there is a long term to it.
If you are already having some trouble, then go read Plato's Parable of the cave.
It's not that gamblers don't know, it's just that so much of what they know is wrong.
Be patient Dan, this is all, as I always say, best taught by example.
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So the sharp forecast has failed twice against the moneyline this week but predicts wins for Edmonton over Montreal and Calgary over Saskatchewan.
Calgary could feel some pressure tomorrow, in Sunday swing game.
Not much of an update for game two from the back end news. I really do think that the sharp money has spoken and with the earlier loss may add to it's position.
Let's see what happens in an hour, as we get into the last hour before game time, and the market can digest the earlier action.
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The sharp forecast has beaten every closing line since it began running in week 6, with the exception of lines that closed where they opened after some action.
Yet you want to call the only thing you respect and trust as BS.
You need to read Plato's "Parable of the Cave" also known as the "Allegory of the Cave" and then after you've contemplated some of it, figure out where you might be in the story. Have an open mind as you realize why you have differing opinions and argue with yourself over what I'm saying and doing.
Then maybe we should talk more.
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"If you understand why the line opens where it opens and moves to where it closes you will go a long way towards winning long term."
An emphasis on beating the closing line is built into my often repeated quote, but understanding why you are beating the line is a whole different aspect.
It's an important one.
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There is no change here with the numbers as volume comes in but we are seeing that line drop to 50 in some places.
Notice others will juice that 51 even, it's an important number.
I like the Under here and we could be seeing an inefficient Total getting stamped out.
I went ahead and pressed the sharp forecast with another bold play picking up UNDER 50.5 (-108) for Montreal Alouettes vs. Edmonton Eskimos.
Good Luck.
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Why did you not take it at 53?
if you liked it at 50.5 you must have loved it at 53, right?
I bet it at 53 and told you why? go back and look at my lines for the week and then come back and tell me to read a book about opinions, LOL.
there is one goal as a sports bettor to buy cheap! market moves forecast this a book has a forecasted double triple axle here all this is great IF and only if you are creating good lines, go back look at the lines I made for this week at the beginning of the week and now look at the closed lines of this week.
I win, I am a winner not because I can predict what sharp wind is blowing, I win because I beat the lineLast edited by danshan11; 08-18-18, 07:10 PM.Comment -
Counting the three games last week we have seen 5 straight underdogs cover against the close with three of them being upsets.
The pressure mounting on Edmonton as the line presses up to -19 and even -19.5.
The discrepency between the public tickets showing on Montreal and the actual money showing on Edmonton is getting bigger.
Sharp money is speaking as we get to one hour til game time.
In fact, that is some serious reverse line movement, as some like to call it, at this high number.
I wish I was seeing the same discrepancy growth in that Total, but it's rather stagnant, in the same spot it's been.
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