CFL 2018 Thread

**icon** · 08-25-18, 07:18 PM

Originally posted by Hngkng

Geez I feel bad for you guys. Correct side, but an outright collapse in the end

Fukkin MIRACLE cover on the OVER 53.

I turned the game off after 3rd Q thinking my bet had no chance, but OVERS always have a chance in the CFL.

31 points in the 4thQ, mostly in the last 5 mins of the game.

Unreal.

**Hngkng** · 08-25-18, 08:38 PM

Im on Saskatchewan win

**danshan11** · 08-27-18, 08:05 AM

here is next weeks

8/31	Alouettes	49.5
8/31	Redblacks	-14
9/2	Blue Bombers	-2
9/2	Roughriders	51
9/3	Eskimos	53.5
9/3	Stampeders	-8
9/3	Argonauts	52.5
9/3	Tiger Cats	-12

and my power rankings for the week

**danshan11** · 08-27-18, 08:07 AM

Stampeders	-9.11
Tiger Cats	-4.80
Blue Bombers	-4.02
Redblacks	-2.81
Roughriders	-0.03
Eskimos	-5.39
Lions	1.20
Argonauts	2.57
Alouettes	10.52

**xpress** · 08-27-18, 08:18 AM

Originally posted by danshan11

Stampeders	-9.11
Tiger Cats	-4.80
Blue Bombers	-4.02
Redblacks	-2.81
Roughriders	-0.03
Eskimos	-5.39
Lions	1.20
Argonauts	2.57
Alouettes	10.52

thanks

**danshan11** · 08-27-18, 11:58 AM

9/3	Tiger Cats	CFL		-108				-7.5
9/2	Roughriders	CFL		-108				U54.5

**KVB** · 08-31-18, 05:36 PM

The sharp forecast has Ottawa winning with 38 or 39 points to Montreal’s 13 or 14 points. The stacking forecast has Ottawa winning with 36 or 37 points to Montreals 17 points. The non-predictive public gauge says Ottawa wins 33-16.

I have been busy and am posting the numbers mostly for analysis later. I haven’t much for this first game and what observations I do have require more thought. We’ve seen a bit of a market shakeout and unfortunately I wasn’t able to post any kind of bold play action last week as I was in Nevada.

I’ll get back into this thread soon with both tracking, breakdowns, and other metrics to lay out.

Good Luck whatever your play.

**Hngkng** · 08-31-18, 05:39 PM

I’m doing a small bet on Montreal +16.0

Found 16.0 at pinnicle

**KVB** · 08-31-18, 05:41 PM

Good Luck Hngkng, I feel like these forecasts will rebound and Montreal has been on a little cover streak. I like the forecast here.

I am still betting the openers, but it's hurt a bit.

lol.

**danshan11** · 08-31-18, 06:18 PM

Originally posted by danshan11

here is next weeks

8/31	Alouettes	49.5
8/31	Redblacks	-14
9/2	Blue Bombers	-2
9/2	Roughriders	51
9/3	Eskimos	53.5
9/3	Stampeders	-8
9/3	Argonauts	52.5
9/3	Tiger Cats	-12

and my power rankings for the week

these numbers are pathetic and not even close, I should not even be putting out numbers for the CFL, shame on me!

**danshan11** · 08-31-18, 06:19 PM

Originally posted by danshan11

9/3	Tiger Cats	CFL		-108				-7.5
9/2	Roughriders	CFL		-108				U54.5

although these 2 bets still are looking pretty good.

**KVB** · 08-31-18, 06:59 PM

I picked up Ottawa RedBlacks -12.5 (-120) LIVE over Montreal Alouettes.

Good Luck.

**KVB** · 08-31-18, 08:39 PM

Well, we said from last year that Montreal would cover a bunch of spreads this year, they are on a streak, probably covering this one.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 08-31-18, 08:42 PM

Johnny FBall is getting Wally Pipkin'ed.

BTW...rule that not many people know. Can SCORE a single on kickoff. Bede has scored two of em tonite.

**KVB** · 08-31-18, 09:07 PM

After the 50-11 drubbing with Manziel, Montreal has been covering and winning.

**Hngkng** · 08-31-18, 09:35 PM

Tony Football

**Coolcanuck79** · 08-31-18, 10:10 PM

I was at the Redblacks game tonight and it was miserable. They could do nothing right on both sides of the ball. I had MTL so the bet was a winner but the game was a dud.

**Hngkng** · 08-31-18, 10:41 PM

Coolcanuck, you a season ticket holder?

**Coolcanuck79** · 09-01-18, 10:41 AM

Originally posted by Hngkng

Coolcanuck, you a season ticket holder?

Nah, I travel too much for work to commit to the season. I go to a couple per season.

**Hngkng** · 09-01-18, 11:50 AM

Originally posted by danshan11

although these 2 bets still are looking pretty good.

I will be on Saskatchewan tomorrow. Just trying to get a -3.0 instead of -3.5

**Jayvegas420** · 09-02-18, 12:45 PM

Any thoughts on the Bombers/Riders total?

**KVB** · 09-02-18, 01:22 PM

The sharp forecast has a tie with both Winnipeg and Saskatchewan scoring 27 or 28 points. There is no moneyline edge in the raw score, it is a tie. The stacking percentages forecast shows Saskatchewan winning with 27 points to Winnipeg's 22 or 23 points. The non predictive public gauge shows Saskatchewan winning basically 30-29.

Again, here are the numbers and I will probably have much more to say for tomorrow's holiday games and hints on settlement. No bold plays yet, still riding what seems to be some rough forecast waters.

With no sharp moneyline prediction, I believe the Winnipeg moneyline has offered value and my samples show that a significantly disproportionate amount of money has been placed there.

Jay, adding some back end info to these games but haven't gotten back into the groove since Vegas. The sharp forecast has lost more times in a row than it ever has since posting in these threads.

It's been an interesting mid season.

Good Luck guys, dealing with some other markets right now and getting the house in order for Fall. Apparently, I should not have been posting the CFL forecasts at the open in the Total Return Fund.

I fukked up there and should have known better from two seasons ago...

**Hngkng** · 09-03-18, 01:04 PM

I'm going to do a small bet on Calgary today.

**KVB** · 09-03-18, 01:29 PM

The sharp forecast has Calgary winning with 28 or 30 points to Edmonton’s 23 or 24 points. The stacking forecast shows Calgary winning with 27 or 28 points to Edmonton’s 20 or 22 points. The public gauge has Calgary winning 31-22.

The sharp forecast has Hamilton winning with 30 or 31 points to Toronto’s 19 or 20 points. The stacking forecast has Hamilton winning with 33 or 34 points to Toronto’s 19 or 20 points. The public gauge says Hamilton wins 27-20.

The numbers starting to line up a bit today, especially on Toronto and a bit on Calgary.

That's it for now. I will try to get back into this mode soon. I still believe the forecasts will do well and bet them.

I wish I could have thrown some bold plays down last week, there was protection from the losing forecasts, but that doesn't matter.

We are still tracking and betting the forecasts. I have been a bit busy and unable to get to the analysis we need for posting here.

Good Luck everyone.

**KVB** · 09-03-18, 01:36 PM

Originally posted by Hngkng

I'm going to do a small bet on Calgary today.

Good Luck, I almost made a bold play here on Calgary, but I need a little more info and 7.5 is a bit much. I am not seeing some back end updates we are looking for, but Calgary could respond well today.

The info I have indicates the Calgary moneyline to be a solid bet here but the spread is a little more questionable.

The sharp forecast likes Edmonton at the +7.5 but passes on the 7, making it an interesting look.

I Wonder if the books, while pressed a bit with public bets on Calgary, aren't trying to draw some sharper Edmonton money with the 7.5 and 8. The 7.5 is for the non-knowledgeable public, the 8 is a stopping point to sideline some action. Feels like a position is being taken and Calgary to cover would settle that.

I don't want to counter the forecast, but I can see the situation developing here.

**KVB** · 09-03-18, 01:44 PM

To be clear, 7.5 excites the NFL crowd, the unsophisticated crowds, not unlike the current SBR Video buys who don't understand the value of some numbers, but the 8 becomes more of a key number.

It's like the NFL moving from 4.5 or 5 to 5.5. It looks big, but in reality it's not a RELATIVELY significant move, but when it finally moves onto 6, it shows market moving money. That move from 4.5 all the way to 5.5 could reflect pressure, but it likely doesn't draw the underdog money like the books could get if it moved to 6.

Key numbers are often misunderstood but their significance, even in the small CFL markets, can be big.

**KVB** · 09-03-18, 05:04 PM

Originally posted by KVB

...The info I have indicates the Calgary moneyline to be a solid bet here but the spread is a little more questionable.

The sharp forecast likes Edmonton at the +7.5 but passes on the 7, making it an interesting look.

I Wonder if the books, while pressed a bit with public bets on Calgary, aren't trying to draw some sharper Edmonton money with the 7.5 and 8...

Well there we go, that move to 7.5 made the difference there.

The forecasts will blaze back after that shakeout, but the lines are feeling tighter.

As a bold play, I picked up OVER 51 (-104) for Toronto Argonauts vs. Hamilton Tiger-Cats.

I think this brings a settlement I was seeking but didn't get into. The first step was the Under in the first game, I didn't bet that.

Good Luck

**Hngkng** · 09-03-18, 05:17 PM

100% wrong side with me in the Calgary game.

I will be on the over as well in the Hamilton game

**Coolcanuck79** · 09-03-18, 05:36 PM

On the over 50 here.

**KVB** · 09-03-18, 05:40 PM

Alright guys, let's get that Over.

Let's see a good game to close out the Holiday weekend.

**Hngkng** · 09-03-18, 06:56 PM

Great first half.

**KVB** · 09-03-18, 07:59 PM

**KVB** · 09-07-18, 08:14 PM

The sharp forecast has Ottawa winning with 30 or 31 points to British Columbia's 17 points. The stacking forecast shows a tie with each team scoring 27 points but gives BC slight edge on in the raw score moneyline. The public gauge has Ottawa winning 26-23.

Tough game here but I continue to believe the forecasts are coming back and will come back from that shakeout. I need to summarize results and get some more info in this thread but once again I am short for time.

My back end information is waiting for more volume updates but what I know is what we've seen... the pressure is on Ottawa and that line has moved a bit.

We are seeing far less line movement, all of which was toward the sharp forecast, now that I stopped posting that forecast at the open.

Even though the line is still moving toward's the forecast, this lessening of movement was anticipated.

I'll check in before game time if and when I have any betting updates.

**danshan11** · 09-07-18, 08:22 PM

your forecasts are moving the line?

**Coolcanuck79** · 09-07-18, 08:40 PM

I hope Ottawa bounces back tonight after their poor showing last Friday. I'll take em for 2 units.