CFL 2018 Thread

Hngkng · 09-21-18, 10:20 PM

Originally posted by gojetsgomoxies

why do teams run in the CFL? it seems like there's no point to it except perhaps keep the other team's D honest.

i do see winnipeg has had good runs tonight...... but in general a running play just seems like a waste of first down. you basically need to complete a pass to make a first down so why not attempt it twice?

4 down football is completely different. although it's gone to pass dominance itself

Basically what you said, to keep the defence honest.
Winnipeg has the best run game in the CFL, but their starting RB got hurt in the first half.

KVB · 09-22-18, 01:57 PM

The sharp forecast has Edmonton winning with 28 or 30 points to Ottawa's 20 points. The stacking forecast gives Edmonton the slight edge with 27 or 28 points to Ottawa's 27 points. The public gauge says Edmonton wins 30-26.

I really have some work to do with market analysis in this league. It's going to be over before we know it.

Stacking forecast may have it right here as Edmonton is on a bit of a cover streak, perhaps inflating that line a bit. I am not surprised to see the early money hit the Ottawa at home and pull that line off the 3.

No bold play here, I lack information as we see the sharp forecast begin to vary a bit from the rest of the marketplace. I still believe the sharp forecast isn't done this season and represents decent plays in terms of market discrepancy over the long term.

Good Luck everyone, I apologize for the scarcity in this thread, I simply haven't had the time I'd like to dedicate to more analysis.

Hngkng · 09-22-18, 02:21 PM

Im on Ottawa +3.0

KVB · 09-22-18, 05:13 PM

The sharp forecast shows Saskatchewan winning with 33 points to Toronto's 23 or 24 points. The stacking forecast has Saskatchewan winning with 33 points to Toronto's 20 points. The public gauge says Saskatchewan wins 30-23.

Heavy action seems to be on Saskatchewan and it could get paid. Not surprised the first game is still in question, not surprised it's a tough issue to settle. Wouldn't be surprised to see OT either.

Good Luck whatever you play.

Hngkng · 09-22-18, 06:01 PM

Im on under 51.0 for Saskatchewan @ Toronto

KVB · 09-22-18, 07:50 PM

The sharp forecast shows a tie between Hamilton and British Columbia with each team getting 24 or 25 points and no edge in the raw score moneyline. The stacking forecast has Hamilton winning with 27 or 28 points to British Columbia's 23 or 24 points. The public gauge also has a tie with each team scoring 24 points.

The overall line movement in the CFL has dropped significantly since I stopped posting the openers a couple of weeks ago. I was hoping that wouldn't be the case.

I have nothing in front of me that warrants a bold play to counter the forecast and the forecast has no moneyline prediction.

Good Luck guys.

Hngkng · 09-22-18, 08:55 PM

I’m on Hamilton -2.5

Hngkng · 09-23-18, 12:25 AM

Idiot coaching move of the year by Hamilton. I'm glad they lost the game because of that.

Lee Jones · 09-23-18, 12:34 AM

Coach is a fkin idiot for sure wow lol

KVB · 09-28-18, 06:45 PM

The sharp forecast has Calgary winning with 40 or more points to Toronto's 27 or 28 points. The stacking forecast says Calgary wins with 36 or 37 points to Toronto's 20 points. The public gauge has Calgary 35-17.

A lot of agreement here, which could work against Calgary but I think they get it done here. The sharp forecast raw score is over 47 points for Calgary and I see no reason to counter the forecast here with a bold play.

Again, not a lot of time spent here, just the forecasts as I haven't been analyzing the CFL since I pulled the lines at the opener.

Good Luck guys.

Hngkng · 09-28-18, 07:33 PM

I can only look at Calgary off a bye week tonight.

KVB · 09-28-18, 08:06 PM

Originally posted by Hngkng

I can only look at Calgary off a bye week tonight.

Can't argue with that. I'll always pull the "it's due to regress" viewpoint, but what is a regression when the norm is so high after a bye?

lol.

KVB · 09-28-18, 11:29 PM

Hngkng · 09-29-18, 02:47 PM

Bc +7.0

KVB · 09-29-18, 03:18 PM

The sharp forecast has British Columbia winning with 34 or 36 points to Hamilton's 27 points. The stacking forecast shows Hamilton winning with 27 or 28 points to BC's 22 or 23 points. The public gauge says Hamilton wins 27-25.

Sharp forecast differing here and I have no reason to counter it with a bold play.

KVB · 09-29-18, 03:20 PM

Originally posted by Hngkng

Bc +7.0

Good Luck HngKng! Sorry I haven't been more into the conversation with CFL.

I got here a late but that forecast predicts an upset while all the numbers like +7.

Looks like Hamilton is on the board first.

Hngkng · 09-29-18, 04:40 PM

Originally posted by Hngkng

Bc +7.0

This is going to lose by like 100

KVB · 09-29-18, 07:15 PM

The sharp forecast has Edmonton winning with the slight edge with 27 or 28 points to Winnipeg's 27 points. The stacking forecast has Edmonton winning with 31 or 33 points to Winnipeg's 23 or 24 points. The public gauge shows Edmonton 31-29.

This could be the first time in a few years I have ever posted these numbers after a game has started.

KVB · 09-30-18, 11:28 AM

The sharp forecast shows Saskatchewan winning with 30 or 31 points to Montreal's 19 or 20 points. The stacking forecast has Saskakatchewan winning with 30 points to Montreal's 20 points. The public gauge has Saskatchewan winning 29-17.

That agreement between the forecasts is a little risky at this point but I still see no reason to counter the forecast with a bold play at this time.

Good luck

xraygord · 09-30-18, 11:57 AM

Want to go big on Sask ML.

KVB · 10-05-18, 05:21 PM

The sharp forecast has Winnipeg winning with 24 or 25 points to Ottawa's 17 points. The stacking forecast has Ottawa winning with 30 points to Winnipeg's 22 or 23 points. The public gauge gives Winnipeg the edge 25-24.

There isn't much volume these days in the CFL markets and it and I should pick up more during the playoffs.

I'm countering the sharp forecast here, going against a factor in the market that is general to the CFL, that would be decent teams as road dogs on the moneyline. This is generally a 50-50 proposition over time, thus profitable as constant underdog odds are paid.

That said, I picked up Ottawa Redblacks -125 over Winnipeg Blue Bombers.

This could end up being a very good game and a tough issue to settle.

Good Luck.

Hngkng · 10-05-18, 06:18 PM

I’m on Winnipeg. All the best!

KVB · 10-05-18, 11:41 PM

Originally posted by Hngkng

I’m on Winnipeg. All the best!

Good win Hngkng, I'll get in here more during the short playoffs.

Good Work.

KVB · 10-06-18, 05:37 PM

The sharp forecast has British Columbia winning with 39 or 40 points to Toronto's 23 or 24 points. The stacking forecast shows BC winning with 30 points to Toronto's 19 or 20 points. The public gauge has BC winning 30-23.

The numbers agree on the BC win and while that might not be the best sign, it's not enough to counter the forecast.

Not much analysis on it here but I am countering the forecast with TORONTO/BC UNDER 52.5 (-106).

Good Luck

Hngkng · 10-06-18, 05:58 PM

It is a pass for me, all the best KVB!

KVB · 10-06-18, 09:28 PM

Originally posted by Hngkng

It is a pass for me, all the best KVB!

Got it this time. Playoffs coming soon. Two more games this week, but they are on Monday.

KVB · 10-08-18, 11:16 AM

The sharp forecast has Calgary winning with 40 or more points to Montreal's 16 or 17 points. The stacking forecast has Calgary winning with 34 or 36 points to Montreal's 17 or 19 points. The public gauge has Calgary 34-13.

I have o bold play here and see no reason to counter the forecast at this point.

Good Luck whatever you play.

xraygord · 10-08-18, 11:21 AM

I like Calgary and the OVER in the Sask Edm game.

Hngkng · 10-08-18, 11:23 AM

Leaning Calgary -7.0 1H

Will be taking Saskatchewan -3.0 for sure

KVB · 10-08-18, 02:48 PM

The sharp forecast has Saskatchewan winning with 33 or 34 points to Edmonton's 20 points. The stacking forecast shows Saskatchewan winning with 31 or 33 points to Edmonton's 20 or 22 points. The public gauge has a much closer game with Saskatchewan winning 28-25.

The market much closer to the public gauge and we've seen the line tick about a half point away from the forecast.

Edmonton could be a dangerous team here, potential for the upset is right there. There is no bold play, yet, to counter the forecasts.

KVB · 10-12-18, 04:18 PM

The sharp forecast has Hamilton winning with 40 or more points to Toronto's 27 or 28 points. The stacking forecast has Hamilton winning with 36 or 37 points to Toronto's 16 or 17 points. The public gauge shows Hamilton winning 32-26.

First game of the week and I don't have enough evidence to counter the forecast here.

Hngkng · 10-12-18, 06:07 PM

Im on Hamilton -9.0

KVB · 10-13-18, 12:33 PM

The sharp forecast has Winnipeg winning with 33 or 34 points to Saskatchewan's 24 points. The stacking forecast shows Winnipeg winning with 27 points to Saskatchewan's 24 points. The public gauge has Winnipeg winning 30-27.

I would not be surprised if Winnipeg wins this game by 3 points or less.

Hngkng · 10-13-18, 12:56 PM

Im on a small Saskatchewan +3.5 play.

KVB · 10-13-18, 03:22 PM

The sharp forecast has Ottawa winning with 31 or 33 points to Edmonton's 13 points. The stacking forecast shows Ottawa winning with 30 points to Edmonton's 24 points. The public gauge has Ottawa winning 26-25.

Reasons to buy the upset with Ottawa are starting to mount here, this could be a shady one as I believe that market is steering money towards Ottawa. This could be the field goal or OT game, because the last one obviously wasn't.

The sharp forecast has Calgary winning with 40 or more points to BC's 24 or 25 points. The stacking forecast shows Calgary winning with 31 or 33 points to BC's 17 or 19 points. The public gauge has Calgary 30-17.

Not watching much here, but I may not be around later so posting the numbers now.