CFL 2018 Thread

[KVB]

...Books may be rooting for Montreal to cover tonight, but not to win...

One more thing, hanging that huge dog moneyline has consequences.

If Calgary is the play, with all of those numbers pointing that way, then the big line, like I did when it came out, will get hit. And it did get hit.

They tested the market and settled it back down to 20, but the still need some Montreal bets. So they hold 20, then drop to 19.5 when they are satisfied. But Calgary buyers loved it at that point, the "test market" couldn't contain itself.

Hmmmm.

Everyone wants that moneyline. You have to adjust the moneyline down, while keeping the spread high. Because of this, even with the huge spread, you get the superbowl effect.

There becomes value on the favorite moneyline and on the Underdog Spread. They had to deal with that a bit tonight.

Even though I say the books might favor Montreal, there is parlay exposure with Montreal and I wouldn't doubt that some of that is teaser exposure with the first game. Whenever you get that many points, you tend to get those bets.

[KVB]

Montreal with the 1-0 lead, already lost the lead.

[Hngkng]

Close call with first half under 24.5. Good thing Montreal self destructed in the red zone

[Coolcanuck79]

Close call with first half under 24.5. Good thing Montreal self destructed in the red zone

Good win!

[KVB]

They put that -6.5 out there for second half, everyone was on it and it moved to -7 (-125).

Pinny, hoping for Montreal action, was willing to keep -6.5 (-132), offering +115 for the other side.

It's not a lot of volume compared others, but you can see the line and bookmakers hard at work.

[KVB]

They tried 23.5 for the second half line, but no one's buying it, literally, and it tanked to 22.5, even under 22 juiced.

Pinny kept 23.5 and made the Under juiced the whole way.

Will be funny to see a 23.

[KVB]

Calgary never broke 18 points for a lead, and now Montreal is on the board.

I hope Calgary applies pressure and doesn't just play for a comfortable win.

[Hngkng]

These guys........
3rd and 1 from their 25, and they do a play action that fails haha.

[KVB]

"The Alouettes have not had a quarterback since Anthony Calvillo, and that was 13 quarterbacks ago."

[ChuckyTheGoat]

This end-game will be interesting. Very much looks like Calgary will milk this drive and play for a 25-8 scoreline.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

I would say that the Montreal QB change is Shiltz for next week. But he's looked bad, too.

Two interceptions. Otherwise, would be a one-score game.

[KVB]

Becoming the situation where Calgary just doesn't really need to get a TD.

If the books wanted Montreal, they just may get their wish after all.

It's up to Calgary to make it happen, a team that has covered as a favorite every game this year.

They have little incentive on the field and in the market.

[Coolcanuck79]

Why am I fearing the last 90 seconds of the game with my under 14 MTL TT?

[KVB]

I would say that the Montreal QB change is Shiltz for next week. But he's looked bad, too.

Two interceptions. Otherwise, would be a one-score game.

I will say this.

Speaking of extremes, the Calgary defensive rating, I would expect, will be approaching some very crazy levels.

The could keep pushing opponents towards negative raw scores in the forecast. That can't, and won't, happen for very long.

[KVB]

Why am I fearing the last 90 seconds of the game with my under 14 MTL TT?

I was trying not to bring it up.

The only thing worse than losing by 17 would be to get another score.

[Hngkng]

Why am I fearing the last 90 seconds of the game with my under 14 MTL TT?

They tried!
Montreal's offense stayed on the field thinking it was fourth down after taking a sack on 3rd down haha.

[KVB]

Congratulations on capitalizing on Montreal failures guys, I admire you for it, it was sharp, even if Calgary couldn't get it done.

[KVB]

They tried!
Montreal's offense stayed on the field thinking it was fourth down after taking a sack on 3rd down haha.

Shiltz wants to play safety!!!!

[Coolcanuck79]

I’m just gonna do two small bets tonight.
Under 24.5 1H
Montreal under 14.5

We eeked out the Montreal TT win! Congrats

[Hngkng]

2 of the best defences in the CFL play next week. Calgary @ Saskatchewan, that should be interesting. I wonder how low a CFL total will open.

Great week this week for everyone here!

[Coolcanuck79]

Congratulations on capitalizing on Montreal failures guys, I admire you for it, it was sharp, even if Calgary couldn't get it done.

Sometimes we go with gut feelings and tonight, it worked out.

Again, we really appreciate the analysis on all the games. Keep up the good work. I know it is a lot of work and it is definitely welcomed each and every week!

[KVB]

[Hngkng]

Hamilton sends QB Johnny Manziel, OT Tony Washington and OL Landon Rice for DE Jamaal Westerman, WR Chris Williams and 2 first-round picks in 2020 and 2021. Montreal has no first round picks for the next 3 years as of now.

[KVB]

Whaaaat????

Oh shit.

[danshan11]

2 of the best defences in the CFL play next week. Calgary @ Saskatchewan, that should be interesting. I wonder how low a CFL total will open.

Great week this week for everyone here!

I got the line at 51.5 so I am usually a hair high so my guess is 50 on the nose but usually my guess is not as good as my model so I say 51.5, LOL but yeah right there

[KVB]

I made it an SBR Player's Talk thread.

It's officially official now.

https://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/players-talk/3484708-johnny-football-move.html

[Hngkng]

47.5 total for Calgary vs Saskatchewan.

[KVB]

I had my screens up when lines popped...

Here are the spread positions, lines have already moved a bit.

The CFL Sharp forecast fund has picked the following plays…

Winnipeg Blue Bombers -9.5 (-106) over Toronto Argonauts.

Hamilton Tiger-Cats -4 (-107) over Ottawa Redblacks.

Calgary Stampeders -7 (-106) over Saskatchewan Roughriders...

No line in Montreal yet, I think Johnny may start.

[KVB]

47.5 total for Calgary vs Saskatchewan.

Calgary defensive rating is one of the lowest I've seen in a while, another negative raw score for their opponent.

CFL entertaining extremes these days.

[KVB]

Line on Calgary moving away from the forecast play to -6.5.

We saw this with Ottawa and they didn't cover. At this point, even though there's no other analysis out there, I believe those bets against Calgary will lose.

It looks like Calgary bounces back, but admittedly this isn't much info yet.

Also, that 47.5 Total has been bet early on the Under. Again, not much, but I think Heritage protected with a 48 line and it will be interesting to see if they can hold it.

[KVB]

Was going to mention that Pinny and more of the marke will need to hold a Calgary -6.5 for the above post to really qualify.

No need to now, line pressuring down on early plays already.

Let's see if the market can hold the -6.5.

[KVB]

Still nothing on game one for Thursday. Crazy if Johnny starts.

By the way, for that first game, the sharp forecast has Edmonton winning with 19 or 20 points to Montreal's 10 points.

I will buy if we see Edmonton -8.5 or better or Montreal +10.5 or better.

I can't make a stacking forecast, only hypothetical, so let's just wait to see if Montreal goes with a new starter.

[Hngkng]

Still nothing on game one for Thursday. Crazy if Johnny starts.

By the way, for that first game, the sharp forecast has Edmonton winning with 19 or 20 points to Montreal's 10 points.

I will buy if we see Edmonton -8.5 or better or Montreal +10.5 or better.

I can't make a stacking forecast, only hypothetical, so let's just wait to see if Montreal goes with a new starter.

You posted this a few hours before Johnny even had his press conference in Montreal.

[Hngkng]

https://twitter.com/CFL/status/1021896726096105473

Manziel won't start, but should see some plays.

[Hngkng]

Vernon Adams to start for Montreal